The current state of social forecasting in the Russian Federation. Methods of social forecasting. Social forecasting as a tool for substantiating the social policy of the state
social forecasting- the field of sociological research (perspectives of social phenomena and processes) and, at the same time, part of the interdisciplinary complex of future studies. In the USSR, it developed in the second half of the 60s, when the "boom of forecasts" reached Moscow.
Then it was crushed in the late 60s and throughout the 70s-80s. developed in two ways: official (as part of the "Comprehensive Program of Scientific and Technological Progress", which served as a scientific cover for voluntary planning) and unofficial (in one of the committees of the Union of Scientific and Engineering Societies). In 1989-1990 both branches entered a state of collapse. Since the beginning of the 90s. attempts are being made to revive this area of social research within the framework of the Association for the Promotion of the World Federation for Future Studies.
IN scientific literature There are several approaches to explaining the essence of forecasting. The point of view of I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada, who proceeds from the fact that the forecast does not provide for solving the problems of the future, has received the greatest distribution. Its task is different: to promote the scientific substantiation of plans and decisions. Forecasting presumably characterizes a possible set of necessary ways and means of implementing the planned program of action. In this regard, a number of authors believe that a forecast should mean a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of certainty. Its difference from foresight lies in the fact that the latter is treated as an apodictic (improbable) statement about the future, based on absolute certainty, or (another approach) is a logically constructed model of a possible future with an as yet undetermined level of certainty. It is not difficult to see that the degree of reliability of statements about the future is used as a basis for distinguishing between terms.
There are other points of view. According to K. Schuster, the forecast has a specific character and is necessarily connected with the "calendar", i.e. with certain quantifications. Accordingly, he classifies the expected number of crimes in the next calendar year as a prediction, and the early release of a prisoner under known conditions as a prediction. A. Schmidt and D. Smith state that a forecast is usually understood as a quantitative prediction. Thus, a "line of demarcation" is drawn between qualitative (prediction) and quantitative (forecast) assessments of the future.
An interesting consideration expressed by D. Johnson. He believes that prediction is the prerogative of the physical sciences, since it requires the application of an "embracing law." Since the social disciplines have a weak basis for formulating laws of this type, they are limited to forecasts that reflect realistic or probable combinations of assumed orientations and initial conditions. Forecasts of social disciplines, in his opinion, act as "substitutes" for predictions of more exact sciences.
Some authors do not particularly find it difficult to define the essence of forecasting in the sense that they do not separate it from foresight and planning. There is a rational moment in these arguments, since social planning to a certain extent is also forecasting, but not vice versa.
A bad service in social prognostication was played by the fact that to some extent it began to be identified with the word "prophecy", which was assigned an unambiguous negative meaning. However, not to mention social prognostication, prophecy is not devoid of positive beginnings.
Elucidation of the essence of forecasting is inextricably linked, according to the just statement of V.A. Lisichkin, with the need to "develop a specifically prognostic system of concepts", including "the correct definition of the concept of" forecast "and distinguishing it from such concepts as foresight, prediction, plan, program , project, expectation, assumption, hypothesis".
In the works devoted to this issue or affecting it (meaning the works of I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada, A.V. Brushlinsky, A.M. Gendin, T.M. Rumyantseva, L.L. Rybakovsky, A.V. Ryabushina, etc.), many interesting thoughts were expressed about the specificity and correlation of the basic concepts of social prognostication. The complexity and difficulty of this task is due primarily to the fact that the question of delimiting categories in the analysis of problems of the future has not been the subject of special research until recently. Its solution is not limited to the circle of internal prognostic demands and involves terminological and semantic "docking" with other sciences that have gone through a more or less long path of development. And here a very contradictory situation arises.
On the one hand, the conceptual apparatus of social prognostication, which studies the laws, principles and methods of forecasting, cannot simply be borrowed from specific sciences. It is distinguished by the universality of terms, i.e. the applicability of each of them with the "assigned" value to it in different branches of knowledge.
On the other hand, while improving the conceptual apparatus, social prognostics cannot ignore the traditions that have historically developed in line with various sciences, when they performed predictive functions. This includes both the features of the use of terms (for example, the preference given to one or the other), and their interpretation.
But one should not exaggerate the fact that outside of social forecasting, an undifferentiated approach to it continues to exist: it is important that forecasting itself and its developments constantly deepen the understanding of the problems of forecasting.
The introduction into circulation as synonyms of a number of terms that are simultaneously among the main categories of prognostication creates conditions (of course, after each category has its own meaning in prognostics) for their subsequent differentiation in all sciences, including sociology. .
This direction of further development seems to be the most probable. It is indisputable that in the presence of a dilemma generated by the action of two trends in the use of predictive terminology, the choice in sociology is determined depending on the tasks being solved. It is this approach that makes it possible to overcome the doubts expressed by individual scientists that "in sociological theories there are no foundations for forecasts for the future."
It is necessary to say more about such distinctive features of social forecasting. First, the goal statement here is relatively general and abstract: it allows for a high degree of probability. The purpose of forecasting is, based on the analysis of the state and behavior of the system in the past and the study of trends in the factors affecting the system under consideration, to correctly determine the quantitative and qualitative parameters of its development in the future, to reveal the content of the situation in which the system finds itself.
Secondly, social forecasting does not have a directive character. In other words, the qualitative difference between a variant forecast and a specific plan is that the forecast provides information to justify the decision and choose planning methods. It indicates the possibility of one or another development path in the future, and the plan expresses the decision on which of the possibilities the society will implement.
And, finally, social forecasting has specific methods: complex extrapolation, modeling, the possibility of conducting an experiment. Let's dwell on this in more detail.
Social forecasting applies several methods. First of all, this is a method of expert assessments, designed to give an objective description of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the forecasting object based on the processing and analysis of a set of individual expert opinions. The quality of an expert assessment, its reliability and validity to a decisive extent depend on the chosen methodology for collecting and processing individual expert values, which includes the following steps: selecting the composition of experts and assessing their competence; compiling questionnaires for interviewing experts; obtaining expert opinions; assessment of the consistency of expert opinions; assessment of the reliability of the results; drawing up a program for processing expert opinions.
Solving such a difficult task as forecasting new directions, which is necessary to determine prospects and trends, requires more advanced scientific and organizational methods for obtaining expert assessments.
One of them is called "the method of the Delphic oracle", or "the method of Delphi". It provides for a complex procedure for obtaining and mathematical processing of answers. On its basis, scientists put forward forecasts for decades ahead regarding scientific, technological and social progress, military-political and some other problems. But to what extent are long-term (and even more super-long-term) forecasts compiled in this way and the very method of their formation reliable?
Forecasts obtained using the "Delphi method" are based on research and objective knowledge of the object, taking into account the subjective views and opinions of the respondents regarding this future.
In this case, intuition plays a big role, which can suggest the right decision, since it is based on the expert's extensive experience. Of course, in such cases, forecasts sometimes turn out to be erroneous, for which history knows many examples. Therefore, the intuitive approach does not always lead to the desired results, especially when solving problems of great complexity, and social forecasting is increasingly faced with just such problems. The study of intuitive forecasts, writes, for example, the Austrian forecaster E. Janch, reveals that "they are rather disorderly scraps of systematic thinking, uncritical extrapolations of the current state of affairs and repetitions of other forecasts."
Usually, the "Delphi method" makes it possible to identify the prevailing judgment of the respondents on a selected range of problems. It is especially suitable for making short-term forecasts, predicting local events, i.e. in relatively simple cases. But the use of the method of expert assessments in any of its variants for long-term, comprehensive and even more so global social foresight increases the reliability of forecasts.
Along with positive aspects The method of expert assessments should also be noted and its disadvantages: it is cumbersome, since it takes a lot of time for each cycle of obtaining answers from experts, which provide a rather large amount of information. In addition, since the method is based on the intuition and subjective views of the respondents, the quality of the assessment directly depends on the qualifications of the experts.
The method of mathematical modeling (solution optimization) is associated with the search for various development options, which makes it possible to select the best option for given conditions. The task of choosing the optimal option for long-term prospective development requires the definition of an optimality criterion, which should reflect the efficiency of the system and have a simple mathematical expression. Among the methods for solving optimization problems, linear programming is widespread. In dynamic programming problems, a system is considered that can change its state over time, and this process can be controlled.
All mathematical models and forecasting methods are probabilistic in nature and are modified depending on the duration of the forecasting period. The use of models increases the efficiency of forecasting, allows you to consider a large number of possible options and choose the most appropriate one. However, there are also negative aspects in modeling, due to the lack of accuracy and elasticity of models when forecasting for a long period.
The extrapolation method is aimed at constructing dynamic (statistical or logical) series of indicators of the predicted process from the earliest possible date in the past up to the date of forecasting. In this case, the use of complex extrapolation formulas, the conclusions of probability theory, game theory - the entire arsenal of modern mathematics and cybernetics, which makes it possible to more accurately assess the scale of possible shifts in extrapolated trends, has a great effect.
Extrapolation is limited in social forecasting. This is due to a number of reasons. Some social processes develop along curves that are close to a logical function. Until a certain period, the process slowly increases, then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After that, the process stabilizes again. Failure to comply with this requirement leads to serious errors.
One of the ways to test the reliability of this method may be extrapolation of growth curves "to the point of absurdity." It shows that the current mechanism should change in the future, new trends in its development will emerge. In this case, the correct solution requires an integrated approach that combines logical analysis, expert assessments and standard calculations.
Thus, social forecasting is based on the study of the objective patterns of scientific, technological and social progress, as well as on modeling options for their future development in order to form, justify and optimize promising solutions.
Foreign experience (in particular, the USA) shows that the forecasting of social systems occupies a leading position (53%) among other areas of research. In terms of time parameters, the ratio of studies in percentage is as follows: for 5 - 10 years - 52%; for 5 - 25 years - 64%; for 10 - 25 and more years - 26%.
The forecasting process itself involves: conducting a brief retrospective analysis predicted object; description of the current state of the object (comparative analysis of observed trends in domestic and foreign experience); problem identification:
already decided, but their implementation and implementation is just beginning;
those problems that have been solved, but have not found practical use;
assessments of experts in leading scientific research in the field.
The main conditions for the reliability of forecasts include:
a) depth and objectivity of the analysis;
b) knowledge of specific conditions;
c) efficiency, competence and speed in carrying out and processing materials.
Of particular importance in social forecasting is information, a database of statistical material.
In theoretical and methodological terms, it is necessary to take into account a number of important provisions:
perception of social processes as an objective reality;
using a holistic, systematic approach to research; historical determinism, i.e. recognition of the causal-causal conditions of these processes.
When analyzing the level of forecasting activity, one should take into account many factors that affect the effectiveness of forecasts and their qualitative characteristics.
There are factors of a fundamental, methodological nature, a high degree of complexity. This is, first of all, the ability to take into account the specifics of the relationship of socio-economic and spiritual-ideological aspects in the development of models, forecasts and their results.
Some organizational deficiencies should be attributed to two groups of people: those who develop models and forecasts, and those who try to implement the results of research.
The insufficiently high professional level of forecasters and experts, their lack of information about the positions of potential customers, in whose interests certain models and forecasts are developed, lead to a number of undesirable moments, on the basis of which a number of conclusions can be drawn.
The first conclusion is the inconsistency in the prognostic reports of the volumes of descriptive and informational (up to 90%) materials with the procedural content. As a result, extremely important information about forecasting measures, the procedure for processing information, and the sources used is occupied by the smallest amount compared to retrospection.
The second conclusion is that often the primary attention is paid to the research approach to the very process of developing forecasts and less to the analysis of the prognostic background of the interrelationships of various factors, the so-called external environment, the use of higher-order forecasting systems.
The totality of various concepts about the future of mankind is sometimes called futurology (from the Latin futurum - the future and the Greek logos - teaching). The study of the future is based on the idea of foresight, forecasting the future states of the social system.
From the point of view of the correlation of the cultural-ideological and scientific-rational components, the concept of the future can be divided into two groups. The first includes non-scientific ideas about the future, the second - scientific.
Non-scientific ideas arose in culture earlier and are of greater interest in the mass consciousness, since they do not require practical verification of their effectiveness and special preparation for perception. Elements of predicting the future are contained in magic, religion, myth. For example, Christianity contains predictions of the distant future such as the Second Coming or the Last Judgment. During the Renaissance, the social utopia became widespread. For example, the books of T. More and T. Campanella. They construct a holistic picture of the future society, taking into account the smallest details. The ways and mechanisms of achieving this future are not indicated. Literary utopias and dystopias of the 19th–20th centuries deserve attention. For example, the novels of N.G. Chernyshevsky, E.I. Zamyatin, O. Huxley, D. Orwell, F. Kafka. They help to clearly present the negative phenomena that exist only in the bud, contribute to the development of a social ideal. Fantasy plays a special role. Being a literary work in form, it relies heavily on scientific knowledge and technical advances.
Scientific studies of the future took on a large-scale character in the 20th century and were realized in the formation of the methodology of social forecasting.
Social forecasting is a special kind of studying the future, based on special methods and characterized by a high degree of scientific validity and objectivity. The main task of social forecasting is to substantiate trends and plans for social development and increase their effectiveness. Social forecasting is the basis of social forecasting.
A social forecast is a theoretical model of the future state of the phenomenon under study. The social forecast has a probabilistic nature and is based on the ability of human consciousness to anticipate reality. There are many social forecasts that can be divided into separate types according to various criteria.
Depending on which particular sphere of reality is reflected, forecasts regarding natural or social systems differ. For example, meteorological, hydrological, geological, biomedical, socio-medical, scientific and technical forecasts.
Forecasts also differ in scale. They can describe the future state of both the system as a whole and its individual subsystems or elements. For example, the development of legal education in the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, or in the Republic of Belarus as a whole.
From the point of view of chronological parameters, forecasts can be focused on the near future or on the long term: long-term, medium-term, short-term.
Social forecasts relating to specific areas of society and designed for rapid implementation in the current time are called social technologies. Specific indicators play a leading role in their development. Long-term forecasts are built on the basis of a comprehensive and systemic approaches. Their direct effectiveness is lower than that of short-term forecasts, but the choice of alternative development models is richer.
Social projections take into account practical relevance and anticipated reactions from stakeholders. Depending on this, they are search, regulatory and analytical. Search forecasts build a probabilistic model, i.e. show what the future can be, in what direction development will go while maintaining existing trends. Often they are in the nature of a warning. Normative forecasts contain goals and recommendations, set a specific framework for the development of a process and its desired results. They are based on a legal basis and may be prescriptive. Analytical forecasts not only create alternative models of the future, but also evaluate the methods and means, costs and expenses in achieving them.
The effectiveness of social forecasts is determined by objectivity and accuracy in the analysis of real processes; professionalism, responsibility and ideological attitudes of the developers of forecasts; availability of technological and financial resources. Social forecasting methods play a leading role in the development of forecasts.
There are a fairly large number of different methods, special techniques, technical, mathematical and logical means of creating social forecasts. The most famous of them:
The extrapolation method is based on the distribution, transfer of the characteristics of a part or element of a phenomenon to the entire phenomenon as a whole. For example, based on the observation of individual members of a social group, a conclusion is made about the level of culture of the entire group.
The interpolation method is based on transferring the characteristics of an integral reality to the elements of which it consists. If we turn to the previous example, then interpolation consists in projecting conclusions about a social group onto each individual member of this group.
The method of historical analogy is based on the assumption of similarity, correspondence of the states of the same phenomenon in the present and future.
The modeling method is based on the creation of special substitutes for real objects or phenomena in order to study their properties and reactions under changing conditions. Modeling has a sign-symbolic form, associated with the use of computer technology. Computer global modeling of the prospects for the development of mankind and the "limits to growth" of technological civilization is carried out in the preparation of the reports of the Club of Rome. The validity of this method is very high.
The method of expert assessments is based on comparing constantly changing information about a system with predetermined numerical indicators. Evaluation is a way of establishing the significance of a phenomenon for the acting and cognizing subject. An expert is a highly educated specialist, a scientist who makes an assessment. The significance of a phenomenon can be theoretical, practical and axiological. It depends on the nature of the needs and demands in the activity.
The Future Scenario Method is a description of the future based on plausible assumptions. It represents a certain number of possible development options, several scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic and medium (most likely). They are developed for specific objects: technology, market, country, region. They cover a large time period, so the reliability is low.
Exercise
1. Formulate the main tasks of sustainable development of the Republic of Belarus in the context of scientific and technological progress and globalization.
2. In what form and extent global problems modernity manifest in the Republic of Belarus? How are they taken into account in the legislation?
3. Give examples of socio-legal forecasts, forecasts in the activities of an employee of the internal affairs bodies and determine the degree of their effectiveness.
Lecture plan:
The concept of forecast.
Features of social forecasting.
Functions and stages of forecasting
Methods of social forecasting
Forecasting procedure
I.V. Bestuzheva-Lada, Forecast does not provide solutions to the problems of the future. Its task is to contribute to the scientific substantiation of development plans and programs. Forecasting characterizes a possible set of necessary ways and means of implementing the planned program of action.
K. Shuster, Forecast has a specific character and is necessarily associated with the "calendar", i.e. certain quantifications. In accordance with this, he classifies the expected number of crimes in the next calendar year as a forecast, and the early release of a prisoner under known conditions as a prediction.
A. Schmidt and D. Smith under Pcatastrophe understand quantitative prediction. Thus, a "line of demarcation" is drawn between qualitative (prediction) and quantitative (forecast) assessments of the future.
V.E. Boikov under social forecasting understands the logical concretization of social foresight. In its most general form, this is also the future, but already in variants. If foresight involves the achievement of some common goal (i.e., is associated with the assertion that this must happen), then the forecast assumes that the goal can be achieved in several possible ways, the implementation of which depends on certain conditions and factors.
So, social forecasting - determination of development options and selection of the most acceptable, optimal, based on resources, time and social forces capable of ensuring their implementation. Social forecasting is the work with alternatives, a deep analysis of the degree of probability and the multivariance of possible solutions.
Features of social forecasting.
1. The formulation of the goal is relatively general and abstract: it allows for a high degree of probability. The purpose of forecasting is based on the analysis of the state and behavior of the system in the past and the study of possible trends in the change of factors affecting the system under consideration, to correctly determine the probabilistic quantitative and qualitative parameters of its development in the future, to reveal the options for the situation in which the system will find itself.
2. Social forecasting does not have a directive character. In other words, the qualitative difference between a variant forecast and a specific plan is that the forecast provides information to justify the decision and choose planning methods. It indicates the possibility of one or another development path in the future, and the plan expresses the decision on which of the possibilities the society will implement.
3. Social forecasting has specific methods: complex extrapolation, modeling, the possibility of conducting an experiment.
Functions and stages of forecasting
Defining the essence of social forecasting, it is necessary to say about three main functions and three of his stages :
1) identifying trends(patterns), factors causing possible changes (research stage);
2) identification of alternative development options, their dynamics as a result of the adoption of certain decisions (the stage of substantiation of managerial decisions);
3) assessment of the progress and consequences of the implementation of management decisions, unforeseen changes in the external environment, situations for timely clarification of actions if necessary (stage of control and correction).
These functions and stages are mutually dependent, being constituent elements of predictive activity in any field of activity.
Content
Introduction……………………………………………………………….3
1 The concept of social forecasting……… ………………….4
2 Methods of social forecasting……… …………………..7
3 The importance of social forecasting……… ………………………………………………………………13
4 Prospects for social forecasting……… …………….14
Conclusion…………………………………………………………….20
List of used literature………………………………..21
Introduction
Any social phenomenon is changeable and has the ability of spontaneous self-development. Here, forecasts can serve as an example of a “negative” development option. It should also be noted that the development of a social phenomenon occurs regardless of whether its theoretical path is outlined or not, and if the development of a phenomenon coincides with its prognostic description, then this coincidence is never perfect.
Thus, organisms survive not because they “know how” to instantly respond to momentary influences, but because their reactions are based on a kind of memory “of the future”, on a forecast of the upcoming state of the external environment encoded in the body. In the human brain, before any action is taken, a model of the “required future” is created, and the results are checked against this model until they are satisfied. Approximately according to the same laws, both an individual and society as a whole live, so the forecast function is very important for them.
1 The concept of social forecasting
Social forecasting is one of the main areas of specific social research, a special object of which is the prospects for the development of specific social processes. In a broad sense, it covers all processes associated with the life of human society (as opposed to natural, technical, biological processes of a spontaneous, “spontaneous” nature, for example, weather forecasts, crop yields, earthquakes, the course of a disease, etc.), and includes includes prospects for the development of social aspects of science and technology, economics, social relations, demographic and ethnic processes, health care and physical culture, public education, urban planning, literature and art, state and law, domestic and foreign policy of states, international relations, military affairs, further exploration of the Earth and space.
Accordingly, there are scientific and technical, biomedical, socio-economic, military-political and geocosmic areas of social forecasting. In a narrow sense, the latter is usually identified with sociological forecasting - the study of the prospects for the development of social relations proper. Philosophical and methodological problems form a special direction: epistemology and the logic of scientific foresight, methodology and methodology for developing forecasts.
In modern conditions, the issues of scientific foresight in solving specific long-term problems of a scientific, technical, socio-economic, military-political nature are of particular importance.
The efficiency of forecasting social processes in economic terms is very significant. Even 40 years ago, some American firms were able to double and triple the sales of their new products (and hence their profits) only by quickly taking into account the data contained in forecasts that were developed by their own research institutions or bought from firms - “forecast traders”. Every dollar invested in developing forecasts turns into fifty dollars of net profit in a short time. At the same time, it was discovered that a well-established forecasting service can significantly reduce the time for developing various plans, programs, projects, decisions and, most importantly, can significantly increase their scientific level, and hence their effectiveness.
Among the distinctive features of social forecasting are: - the formulation of the goal is relatively general and abstract (they allow a high degree of probability); - does not have a directive character - the forecast provides information for substantiating decisions and choosing planning methods.
The object of social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.
The experience of past years and the scientific achievements of the present make it possible to carry out forecasting, i.e. scientific prediction of the prospects for the development of specific social processes with particular accuracy.
Research in the field of social forecasting is being developed in full measure. Already now, on their basis, it is possible to draw a number of conclusions about individual contours of the near future.
The increased interest in the knowledge of the social encourages the development of more and more new technologies of social development. Quite large and capacious scientific material has been accumulated in the world, revealing both the content of social positions and the prognostic nature of problems. The phased creation of a forecast is technological in its very essence. The difficulty lies not in presenting the characteristics of such technologies, but in their practical application.
Social forecasting is closely related to innovation activity, as it is a technique aimed at technological support for the implementation of initiatives that cause qualitative changes in various areas of social life, lead to the rational use of predictive knowledge, material and other resources of society,
At the turn of the 60-70s. specialists offered a solution to the problem of building a social forecast or model through system analysis. The difficulties that such scientific and scientific-political associations had to overcome led to a reduction in the number of forecasting organizations over the past 30 years from several thousand to 200.
Of course, the development of predictive scenarios for the development of such a complex social object as humanity as a whole presents significant difficulties, and many specific forecasts over the past 30-35 years have not materialized. However, the attention of scientists, politicians and practitioners of social transformation to forecasting technologies does not weaken.
Adequate, sufficient, complete knowledge, reflecting objective social processes and their connections, should be comprehensive, based on the integration of data from all areas of social science, on the strong interaction of social and natural sciences, because at the junction of different areas and forms of knowledge, a greater amount of information can be obtained. The functioning of information is carried out with the help of various channels and means of its distribution and storage, both institutionalized and non-institutionalized.
The modern process of global informatization, the development of information technologies dramatically increase the amount of information circulating in society, and in many respects changes its quality (the forms of its storage and presentation, the degree of diversity, etc.). It should be taken into account that information that actually functions in society always includes subjective elements (assessments, opinions, perceptions, etc.), as well as inadequate, distorted information about reality based on stereotypes, rumors and other similar sources. Therefore, the information used in social forecasting technologies, which is included in the forecast block, must be complete, reliable, up-to-date and have the following properties: I) attributive (unity of material and social, discreteness and continuity); 2) pragmatic (novelty, value, cumulativeness); 3) dynamic (repeatability, reuse, aging). It should be noted that the information need can be considered as a manifestation of individual traits and requests of the individual, the public interests of individual social groups and humanity as a whole.
2 Methods of social forecasting
Social forecasting is the definition of development options and the choice of the most acceptable, optimal, based on resources, time and social forces that can ensure their implementation. Social forecasting is work with alternatives, a deep analysis of the degree of probability and the multivariance of possible solutions. It is connected with the prediction of the directions of development of the phenomenon in the future, by transferring to it the idea of how the phenomenon develops in the present.
Forecasting is based on three complementary sources of information about the future: extrapolation in the future of trends, patterns of development that are well known in the past and present; modeling of research objects, their presentation in a simplified form, a schematic form, convenient for obtaining predictive conclusions; predictive assessment of the expert.
One of the first methods that became widely used in forecasting was the extrapolation method. Its essence is the construction of dynamic (statistical or logical) series of indicators of the predicted process from the earliest possible date in the past (retrospective) up to the date of establishment (perspective) of the forecast. With this approach, the choice of the optimal type of functions is carried out (accounting for time, conditions, etc.). A great effect is the use of complex extrapolation formulas, the conclusions of probability theory, game theory, etc.
With social forecasting, the possibilities of extrapolation are limited, since social processes develop along curves that are close to a logical function. One way to test the reliability of this method may be to extrapolate growth curves "to the point of absurdity."
Expert methods are widely used in forecasting, ranging from analytical notes and meetings in order to agree on opinions and develop informed decisions to special expert assessments designed to give an objective description of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the forecasting object based on the processing and analysis of a set of individual expert opinions. The quality of an expert assessment, its reliability and validity depend to a decisive extent on the chosen methodology for collecting and processing individual expert values, which includes the following steps:
- selection of the composition of experts and assessment of their competence;
- drawing up questionnaires for interviewing experts;
- obtaining expert opinions;
- assessment of the consistency of expert opinions;
- assessment of the reliability of the results;
- drawing up a program for processing expert opinions.
The solution of such a difficult task as forecasting new directions is necessary to determine the prospects, trends, and requires more advanced scientific and organizational methods for obtaining expert assessments.
One of them is the method of the Delphic oracle or the Delphi method. The forecasts obtained using this method are based on research and objective knowledge of the object, taking into account the objective views and opinions of the respondents regarding this future. In this case, intuition plays a big role, which can suggest the right decision, as it is based on the expert's extensive experience.
An intuitive approach does not always lead to the desired results and most often the forecasts turn out to be erroneous. Basically, it is suitable for making short-term forecasts, predicting local events. But the use of this method of expert assessments in any of its variants for long-term, comprehensive and global social foresight increases the reliability of forecasts. Among the shortcomings of this method, the following are noted - the bulkiness and the need for highly qualified experts.
The Oedipus effect plays an important role in social forecasting; the possibility of self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast, if the creative activity of people is connected to this process, in the process of which positive warnings and threats are realized or eliminated. The conclusions obtained in the process of this forecast contribute to the awareness and understanding of the prospects for this or that event and the need to develop measures to prevent this forecast from taking place.
Forecasts have the ability to self-realization, but only if they form a single chain of needs and interests of people both at the level of social, industrial, and their personal lives. The experience of forecasting and implementing forecasts shows that their value is also associated with the ambiguity of approaches to solving social problems, with the depth of analysis of the degree of probability of possible changes.
A huge role in social forecasting is played by morphological synthesis, which provides for obtaining systematic information on all possible parameters of the problem under study.
This method assumes the complete absence of any prior judgment or discussion. It answers the following types of questions: what tools are needed to obtain forecast information; what is the sequence of events; how to trace the application of all means, or all methods, or all stages of solving a given problem? Particularly significant in this method is the requirement that no opportunity be missed without a preliminary exhaustive study.
Among the methods used in social forecasting, forecasting scenarios play a significant role. With their help, a logical sequence is established in order to show how, based on the real situation, the future state of the object of study, social process or phenomenon can unfold step by step.
The main significance of the forecast scenario is associated with the definition of development prospects, its main line, as well as the identification of the main factors of the development background and criteria for assessing the levels of achievement of goals.
Predictive graphs are also used, which can be directed or undirected, contain or not contain cycles, be connected or unconnected, and so on. Together with the goal tree, they determine the development of the object as a whole, participate in the formulation of forecast goals, the scenario, in determining the levels and criteria for the effectiveness of forecasts.
The method of modeling (optimization of decisions) is widely used in social forecasting, which is associated with the search for development alternatives, which makes it possible to select the best option for given conditions. The task of choosing the optimal option for long-term prospective development requires the definition of an optimality criterion, which should reflect the efficiency of the system and have a simple mathematical expression.
Among the methods for solving optimization problems, linear programming is widespread.
All mathematical models and forecasting methods are probabilistic in nature and are modified depending on the duration of the forecasting period. The use of models increases the efficiency of forecasting, allows you to consider a large number of possible options and choose the most appropriate one.
The negative features of modeling are the lack of accuracy and elasticity of models in forecasting, especially for a long period.
The process of social forecasting can be presented step by step as follows:
1. choice of the object of social forecasting;
2. choice of research direction;
3. preparation and processing of information on the forecast problem;
4. choice of a forecasting method, one of the methods or a set of methods in a certain sequence that meets the requirement of scientific research;
5. actual predictive research;
6. processing of results, analysis of the information received in relation to the research problem;
7. determination of the reliability of the forecast.
Social forecasting is based on various methods for studying the objective patterns of scientific, technological and social progress, as well as modeling options for future development in order to form, justify and optimize promising solutions.
According to its content and quality, social information can be true and false, scientific and unscientific. A characteristic distinguishing feature of scientific information is its truth. Its content side is determined by the following factors: the level of knowledge of the object of foresight, the competence of the subject of foresight, the quality of information. There is also such a thing as the optimality of social information. For social foresight, of particular interest are such basic types of social information as economic, political and legal, as well as sources of information: social activities, various spheres of public life, various documents, books, magazines, patents, etc.
Socio-economic forecasts are one of the most developed industries. Economic forecasting is the process of forming probabilistic judgments about the state of economic processes and phenomena at a certain point in the future and about alternative ways to achieve them. To obtain a reliable socio-economic forecast, it is necessary to study the laws of development of the national economy, determine the causes and driving forces this development, the main factors of which are social needs, technical possibilities and economic feasibility. In accordance with these factors, three ultimate goals of such forecasting can be indicated: setting goals for the development of the national economy, finding optimal ways and means to achieve them, and determining the resources required to achieve the goals set. The socio-economic forecast is of a complex nature and is developed taking into account the data of the demographic forecast, resource forecast, supply and demand forecast, etc.
Sociological forecasting has three levels of research: general theoretical, particular theoretical and empirical. In sociological forecasts, the general object of study is society as a social organism. Concrete, private objects of sociology are social groups, institutions, people. The totality of social mechanisms determines the development and functioning of society as a social organism; here a specific social problem is manifested, generated by the peculiarity of the development of the social system.
The problem of forecasting socio-psychological processes has two sides: psychology supplies certain information about the objects of forecasting in society, production, science, culture, since these objects have specific psychological characteristics. On the other hand, psychology studies the subjects of forecasting: a person or a group of people who themselves are able to develop and implement predictive decisions.
Legal forecasting is a systematic study of the prospects for the development of state-legal processes, their pace and characteristics, which in modern conditions becomes an important function of legal science, stands out as an independent area of scientific and practical activity in order to strengthen the rule of law, improve the process of lawmaking and legislation. The object of legal forecasting is the state and law. This type of forecasting affects all elements and subsystems of the legal superstructure of society, explores all social objects related to it, characterized by a rich set of various features, qualitative and quantitative indicators.
3 Significance of social forecasting
Social forecasting technologies are an indispensable tool for social foresight, research and solving social problems of the modern world. Experience shows that their use is the more effective, the narrower segment of the social field is affected.
The predictive vision of the authors rejects the inevitability of a "single" global environmental catastrophe. They imagine the future of mankind as a chain of long-term, diverse crises - environmental, energy, food, raw materials, demographic - that can gradually cover the entire planet if society does not accept their recommendations for a transition to "organic growth", which in their interpretation is reduced to a balanced and differentiated development. all parts of the planetary system following the example of a living organism, each cell, each organ of which function in the interests of the whole.
Crises can concern not only humanity in the broadest sense, they can negatively affect an individual person and the society that surrounds him, thereby causing the impossibility of their development. Social forecasting is aimed at anticipating and overcoming emerging crises and problems in order to avoid negative consequences for a given person and society as a whole.
Here, the informational aspect in social forecasting technologies is of great importance - the totality of knowledge, information, data and messages that are formed and reproduced in society and are used by individuals, groups, organizations, classes, various social institutions to regulate social interaction, public relations between a person, society and nature. It is on the basis of the totality of these data that social forecasts are formed and developed.
4 Perspectives on social forecasting
Francis Bacon, an English political figure of the 17th century, in his famous aphorism: “Knowledge itself is power” - “Knowledge itself is power”, looked through economic calculation.In the modern world, knowledge is expensive, and knowledge about the future of the economy is a real golden fund of any developed state. It is obvious how important knowledge about the future is for the development of socio-economic and other policies of the state, regions, large enterprises, and the development of the household. Today, in the management of the Russian economy, a very important role is played by the inertial forecast of the economy, on the basis of which, according to the legislation, the concept of long-term development of the economy, detailing the forecast itself, must be built.Socio-economic forecasting is the process of developing economic and social forecasts based on scientific methods knowledge of economic and social phenomena and the use of the entire set of methods, methods and means of economic forecasting.The purpose of the article is to analyze the prospects for socio-economic forecasting in Russia.Inertial forecast, i.e. multivariate, considers various scenarios and depends mainly on a set of important indicators: oil price, inflation, demography, etc. Economic growth rates are derived from resources and other factors, and the product created in the future is “broken down” into different goals: social and others. But not everything is so simple - as a rule, some socio-economic standards are set, which must be reached in the future, but still they mainly depend on the dynamics of the volumes and productivity of economic resources, and not vice versa.Meanwhile, we can see some alternative to this approach in some developed countries abroad, for example, in the USA there is a forecasting model that builds a picture of the future from the demographic sphere, from labor resources, qualification structure, jobs, etc. The named scheme, of course, can be considered more socialized. It is clear that the ideal of the socialization of society in forecasting would be a system that builds a clear future system of a “social product”: welfare, social programs and benefits, specific positive changes in health care, nutrition, housing, education, recreation, etc. And under such the system has already been built and economic resources have been optimally used, creating a future social product. That is, the conceptual and predictive solution of specific socio-economic problems at a level that is clear to an ordinary person just proves the real social orientation of the state, brings the necessary stability to public opinion and is an important factor in ensuring confidence in the future (especially if plans are systematically implemented ). And the population's confidence in the future, interest in the future is a powerful socio-psychological factor in increasing labor activity and economic growth. The system of planning and forecasting should be clearly focused on the specific benefit of each individual person, and not the efforts of a person should be directed to the abstract general goals of the state - we have already gone through this .., it ended badly.How is forecasting qualitatively different in developed economies today? First of all, this is an orientation towards the foresight of solutions to specific social, socio-economic problems, and economic problems are presented as a means of solving social problems. This is understandable - in a developed economy, in fact, the economic mechanism is not a zone of such close attention, since it is already relatively well debugged, regulated by the state, competition and market mechanisms function quite clearly. In Russia, this process of debugging and balancing the market mechanism continues, but it is not difficult to look into the near future and understand what kind of socio-economic forecasting and planning we will have, what it should become. First, a few words about the specifics of developed forecasting and planning in a market environment: it cannot concentrate on trifles and details (minor problems are solved "below" by a well-functioning market), attention is focused on major problems. Secondly, such planning and forecasting should be transparent - if desired, every citizen should easily get acquainted with the forecast, concept and plan, know who, how and what decisions are made, who is really responsible for what. Moreover, the process of future forecasting itself should be more democratic - if desired, not only the relevant state structures, but also independent organizations and experts should freely take part in it; it is possible to carry out wide surveys of the population about the shape of the desired future, wishes and fears, about development goals and ways to achieve them.Future forecasting will be focused on general conceptual qualitative goals, build appropriate strategies, analyze multivariate development scenarios, take into account the probabilistic nature of development (which has been sharply increasing recently) and the system of risks (especially military-political factors and the increased catastrophic nature of world development), the unpredictability of many events . Concrete solutions to problems are detailed in major national economic projects and programs. In the future, as planning and forecasting develop, real programming and open planning of switching on/off economic regulators is possible, depending on the state of the system of development indicators being set - in this situation, the population and business will feel more and more confident and not be afraid of tomorrow. In many ways, the system of forecasting and planning will converge with public policy. The regulators of the market economy, as it develops, will be more and more economic, indirect, non-rigid in nature, replacing direct administration; the legislative system is stabilizing; the institutional environment will approach world standards. Next, we will consider the qualitative, semantic content of the future system of forecasting and planning. Of course, it will be a more socialized system, more oriented towards human development, with appropriate socio-economic criteria. In the first place in the concepts and forecasts will be the standards for improving the quality of life and the level of incomes of the population, life expectancy, health parameters of the population, demographic parameters, specific goals for the development of social security and guarantees, housing, medical care, recreation, development of rights and freedoms, protection and security incl. environmental, ensuring social equality and non-discrimination of citizens on any grounds, reducing the degree of differentiation of welfare.At the same time, as the economy develops, specific goals for the formation of a new system of socio-cultural values in society should be of increasing importance in comparison with economic values in forecasts and concepts. The most important criteria are the provision of the entire population with cultural, scientific, educational, informational benefits, the development of the intellectual sphere and individual creativity and entrepreneurship. In the first place, not potential resource investments will be considered as means of achieving the set goals, but the development of fundamental and applied science, innovation processes, the formation of new principles of trust, public-private partnerships, partnerships in society, the consolidation of society on the basis of common socio-political and cultural values. Under the specified goals and objectives, the economic block should be adjusted, gradually ceasing to dominate in the public consciousness as a value in itself.However, in the future, the economic bloc itself is undergoing serious structural changes due to the fact that Russia is increasingly firmly embarking on a post-industrial development path with a powerful development of the service sector and integrating into world system. The development of the economic block is explicitly linked in forecasts to human capital, managerial capital, and social capital (“relationship” capital). All types of investments in the human factor and the effect of this are becoming the most important ways in which the goals set by society. The necessary infrastructure for the development of the human factor in the economy is the system continuing education in conjunction with the improvement and expanded introduction of public information and communication technologies, the Internet, electronic libraries and databases, etc.Another qualitatively important block of the future forecasting and planning system is long-term technology foresight, anticipation of revolutionary technological breakthroughs, planning of transitions to higher technological levels in order to solve socio-economic problems. In principle, in the future, the knowledge intensity of products, works, services, and any type of activity will steadily increase and indirectly testify to the successful development of the economy.As a result, we note critically on the energy problem. Historical facts show that the actual energy problem does not exist, but there are two others: 1) a lag in the implementation of the avant-garde achievements of science in the field of energy; 2) artificial hype around the energy problem, created by interested circles to maintain the highest possible prices for traditional mass-produced energy carriers in order to maximize their own income. At the same time, the world is full of super-progressive ideas in the field of new energy (hydrogen, air, helium, ebbs and flows, the energy of the Sun and almost stars, all types of radiation, etc.). There are well-known reminders that monopolies, in order to maximize their profits, "shelve", "do not notice", do not stimulate advanced scientific and technological revolutions, and often oppose them. But it really is! And the one who is the first to abandon this vicious practice will win in the long run in terms of the quality and level of high-tech growth. Russia, as an energy superpower, is simply obliged to be the first to do this precisely because it has the maximum margin of energy strength and can experiment. But if we do the opposite - to notify that we have enough of everything, then once again we will be thrown far back, while heating the whole ungrateful world.
Conclusion
Foresight is concretized in two forms: in the predictive (descriptive, or descriptive) form related to the category of foresight itself, and in the conjugated with it, related to the category of control - pre-indicative. Prediction implies a description of possible prospects, states, solutions to the problems of the future. Foretelling is connected with the actual solution of these problems, with the use of information about the future for the purposeful activity of the individual and society.
Prediction results in the forms of premonition, anticipation, foresight, forecasting. Premonition (simple anticipation) contains information about the future at the level of intuition, subconsciousness. Foresight (complex anticipation) carries information about the future based on life experience, more or less correct guesses about the future, not based on special scientific research. Finally, forecasting (which is often used in the previous meanings) should mean, with this approach, a special scientific study, the subject of which is the prospects for the development of a phenomenon.
Forecasting is not limited to trying to predict the details of the future (although in some cases this is important). The forecaster proceeds from the dialectical determination of the phenomena of the future, from the fact that necessity makes its way through chances, that a probable approach is needed to the phenomena of the future, taking into account a wide range of possible options. Only with this approach, forecasting can be effectively used to select the most probable or optimal option when justifying a goal, plan, program, project, or decision in general.
List of used literature
1. Berger P.L. An invitation to sociology. humanistic perspective. M., 2006.
2. Bestuzhev - Lada I.V. Window to the future. – M.: Thought, 1968.
3. Bestuzhev-Lada I.V. Predictive substantiation of social innovations / I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada. - M.: Nauka, 2003. - 233 p.
4. Bondarenko V.I. Fundamentals of social forecasting: (Tutorial-method. allowance) / V.I. Bondarenko; Far East. acad. state services. - Khabarovsk, 2008. - 29 p.
5. Krapivensky S.E. Social cognition / S.E. Krapivensky // Krapivensky S.E. Social Philosophy. - M., 2006. - S. 293-351.
6. Kurbatov V.I. Social design: Proc. allowance for universities / V.I. Kurbatov, O.V. Kurbatov. - Rostov n / a: Phoenix, 2001. - 416 p.
7. Modeling of social processes: Proc. allowance. - M .: Publishing house Ros. economy acad., 2003. - 304 p.
8. Forecasting and planning in the market: Proc. allowance / Ed. T.G. Morozova, A.V. Pikulkina.- M.: UNITI-Dana, 2001. - 318 p.
9. Romanenko I.V. Social and economic forecasting: Lecture notes / I.V. Romanenko. - St. Petersburg: Publishing House of Mikhailov V.A., 2000. - 62 p. - (Higher professional education).
10. Sorokin P.A. The main trends of our time / P.A. Sorokin; Per. from English. and foreword. T.S. Vasilyeva. - M.: Institute of sociology. RAN, 2003. -195 p.
etc.................
We can foresee the future on an ordinary level (for example, according to signs that have become popular with Russian entrepreneurs), trust our intuition or entrust ourselves to mystical powers (prophecy, divination, horoscope). Foresight can also be built as a scientific study, and then it is no longer a premonition, not a prediction, but a forecast.
The concept of forecast.A forecast is a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of certainty 16 . Prophecy does not imply the likelihood of its fulfillment: it must come true. The forecast is probabilistic and logically constructed as a model of the future.
In management, an instrumental interpretation of the forecast has been formed as a planning method, in which the prediction of the future is based on accumulated experience and current assumptions about the future 17 .
Forecast and globalistics. With the development of cybernetics, forecasting began to develop as a practical and applied scientific activity. Since the late 60s of the XX century, its most important direction has been the assessment of the global prospects of mankind. In this activity, the philosophical understanding of the future was realized, which unexpectedly received powerful arguments from detailed calculations. This direction of forecasting was largely formed under the influence of reports Club of Rome.
The Club of Rome is an international community of leading economists, specialists in management theory, sociologists, political scientists and politicians, founded in 1968 by the Italian economist A. Peccei to develop global predictive models. Until the mid-1990s, the preparation, discussion and publication of summarizing reports on pressing global problems by club members was the main form of work of the Club of Rome.
The first report "Limits to Growth" (1972), made under the direction of D. Meadows on the basis of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was built on the basis of the Mir-2 cybernetic program by one of the largest specialists in the field of control theory, J. Forrester. D. Meadows (Forester's graduate student) modified this program. In the new Mir-3 program, key factors (population the globe, food production, Natural resources, industrial production, environment) were modeled on the basis of existing trends (2 percent annual growth, doubling in about 30 years, and for industrial production, data from the 60s were recalculated based on 5-7 percent growth per year, doubling in 10 -15 years). The conclusion of the "Limits to Growth" report was that already in the first decades of the 21st century, a catastrophe awaits mankind 18 . The publication of this and subsequent reports to the Club of Rome invariably became a worldwide sensation and led to the intensification of predictive research. From the tenth report "Routes leading to the future", prepared by the director of the International Institute of Management Bogdan Gavrylyshyn (1980), began new stage global forecasting, the content of which is the transition to the analysis of socio-political institutions, reliance on the study of "political reality", an attempt to determine the "societal efficiency" of various countries. Guidelines for an effective society in socio-economic, political and cultural relations 19 began to be developed. In fact, this was the beginning of social forecasting on a global scale.
Today in the Club of Rome there is a realization that the days of analysis and giving recommendations in the form of reports are over (reports are only archived!). Now the priority of the club has become the desire to influence the state of affairs in the world.
The preparation of reports is only the first stage of work on a particular problem. At the next stages, participation in debates and other forms of persuasion of the leaders of states and international organizations, participation in managerial decision-making at the national and international levels is expected. The Declaration of the Club of Rome (1996) states that this international association "desires to strengthen its role as a catalyst for change and as a center of innovation and initiative" 20 .
The direct connection between the forecast and management decisions both at the global and local levels, thus, is increasingly relevant for social management. The desire to consolidate this connection on a scientific basis predetermined the development of social forecasting, and more recently, its wider application in social design.
Features of forecasting social phenomena and processes. There is a noticeable difference between forecasting within the natural and technical sciences, on the one hand, and within the social sciences, on the other. The weather forecast, for example, can be set with a high degree of probability. But at the same time, it cannot be canceled by a managerial decision. Within small limits, a person can consciously change the state of the weather (for example, it is possible to clear the sky of clouds in connection with a major public holiday or stimulate avalanches in the mountains), but these are very rare cases of counteraction to the forecast. Basically, a person has to adapt his actions to the weather (take an umbrella if rain is expected; put on warm clothes if it is cold, etc.).
The specificity of social forecasting lies in the fact that the prediction of social phenomena and processes and their management are closely related. Having predicted an undesirable social process, we can stop it or modify it in such a way that it does not show its negative qualities. Having predicted a positive process, we can actively contribute to its development, contribute to its expansion in the territory of action, coverage of people, duration of manifestation, etc.
Social innovation has specific features in a number of other innovations: if in the scientific, technical, economic spheres, the meaning of innovation is to achieve greater efficiency, then in the social sphere, establishing efficiency is problematic. How is this determined?
1. In the social sphere, the improvement of the position of some people can create tension (sometimes only psychological) for others. Social innovation is evaluated through the prism of the value-normative system.
Karl Marx (1818-1883) in his work “Wage Labor and Capital” (1849) gave an expressive description of the social assessment of the acceptability of housing: “No matter how small a house is, but as long as the surrounding houses are just as small, it satisfies all requirements for housing” 21 . It must be said that the housing problem, precisely because of such social assessments, is perceived as acute, although housing construction is ongoing. Today, it is unlikely that anyone in Moscow will be satisfied with a room in a communal apartment in a wooden house, without running water, gas, with a toilet in the yard, although back in the 50s such housing was perceived as completely acceptable, since many Moscow families lived this way.
2. The successful solution of some social problems may give rise to other problems or turn out to be a success not in the sense in which the task was understood.
Thus, an attempt to transfer to the USSR the experience of the GDR, Bulgaria and other countries in offsetting credit obligations to a young family in the event of the birth of children did not take into account that in the USSR there were two demographic problem situations: for 80% of the population it was a problem of a one-child family, for 20% it continued "population explosion" 22 . I had to abandon such a solution to the problem.
Social forecasting faces the same problems as social engineering. Who and on what grounds recognizes one social process as desirable and another as dangerous? Where is the line separating the positive from the negative in a social forecast? Once again, we enter the field of value characteristics. Dependence on people's value relations is an important specific feature of social forecasting.
Thus, the objectivity of a social forecast is of a special kind; it is realized in the context of a particular value-normative system. Only if the social forecast is based on this system can it have a positive impact on social practice.
"The Oedipal Effect". If we know an unfavorable forecast and we take certain actions in view of it, aimed at ensuring that it does not materialize, we may well achieve success in this. A change in objects or processes that occurs as a result of the implementation of management decisions that take into account the results of the forecast, called in prognostication "Oedipus effect".
The "Oedipus effect" appears where the solution, as it were, crosses out the prediction, leads to "self-fulfillment" or "self-destruction" of the prediction 23 . The predicted undesirable event does not occur in this case, not because of the inaccuracy of the forecast, but, on the contrary, because of the timely reaction to an accurate forecast that was not allowed to materialize.
"The Pygmalion Effect". It has long been noted that predicting success mobilizes people to do things that would otherwise be impossible. We call this phenomenon "Pygmalion effect": a special desire for success and creativity are able, as they say, to revive even a stone (as happened in the famous ancient Greek myth of Galatea).
The essence of the effect is seen in the fact that the forecast acts as an orienting stimulus for people's behavior, it affects the emotional-sensory, rational and volitional spheres of the human psyche, the realization creative(creative) abilities of people.
At the same time, such an incentive should be perceived as a temporary factor, as a kind of "fair wind" that can change.
Attention to this circumstance is often guessed in the marketing of certain goods and services (although only economic calculation is most often visible on the surface), since when selecting target markets, measurements and forecasting of demand are carried out, taking into account all the expected factors. The example of Atari's work in the video game market is instructive. In 1977 The release of video games on cassettes was a huge success for the company, but the firm's strategic planning took into account the opinion of experts who predicted a drop in demand for cassettes used in game consoles as the home computer market saturates. The firm was able to reorganize its activities in time 24 .
The same psychological effect is present in predicting failure. The forecast of a catastrophe can cause panic and complete demoralization of people, or, conversely, rally them in opposition to the threat.
Technology of social forecasting. The typical method of social forecasting, according to I. V. Bestuzhev-Lada 25 , contains 44 operations, summarized in seven procedures:
1. Development of the research program(pre-forecast orientation): definition and refinement of the object, subject, goal, objectives, structure, working hypotheses, methodology and organization of the study.
2. Construction of the initial (basic) model and its analysis: clarification of the parameters of the "innovation field", the formulation of alternative options, their ranking based on priority.
3. Building a predictive background model and its analysis: consideration of external factors affecting the fate of innovation, determination of the possible consequences of innovation for the system (the standard forecast background contains seven groups of data: 1) scientific, technical and environmental, 2) demographic, 3) economic, 4) sociological, 5) sociocultural, 6) domestic political, 7) foreign policy 26).
4. Search forecast: variable direct "weighing" of the consequences of the planned innovation with the definition of a "problem tree".
5. Normative forecast: determination of possible ways to solve the problems identified by the predictive search, the ideal (without taking into account the limitations of the forecast background) and the optimal (taking into account these limitations) state of the system into which the innovation is introduced; correction of the "weighting" data of the consequences obtained in the predictive search.
6. Forecast verification, determination of the degree of its reliability, accuracy and validity.
Even in the most simplified versions, the social forecast is basically based on this technology, which sets both the content and the sequence of actions. Of particular importance for practical purposes is the division of the forecast into search and normative.
Search forecast.A search forecast is such a prediction of a social situation at a certain point in the future, which is based on an analysis of the states of a social phenomenon or process in the past and present. For social innovations, the exploratory forecast captures the future states of the given innovation and its environment, based on the detected trends.
The essence of the search forecast is to "find out what will happen, what problems will arise or mature if the existing development trends continue, that is, provided that the management sphere does not develop any solutions that can modify unfavorable trends" 27 . The purpose of the search forecast is to establish a promising problem situation 28 .
The search forecast is very important for working out the issues of the viability of a social project. It allows you to solve several problems at once. First, it outlines the potential of the social problem, its future growth or decline, which is the backdrop for the project. Secondly, it demonstrates the potential for innovation that the project carries, its ability to make positive changes. Thirdly, he warns about the possible negative consequences of innovation.
An example of a exploratory forecast is the examination of events planned in 1990, carried out with our participation. Council of Ministers of the RSFSR in connection with the resettlement of Soviet military personnel and members of their families from Germany to their homeland. It was assumed that new settlements in the Non-Chernozem region would be built for the settlers according to Western standards. The experts proceeded from the fact that the resettlement of such a grandiose scale could not be considered only as an organizational and technical and economic task. It was also about resolving the most complex socio-cultural problem. It has been suggested that it is the socio-cultural aspect of the project that is decisive for the effective investment of such large material and financial resources. Here are some of the findings:
Professionally, those who have arrived do not constitute a group that is self-sufficient for autonomous living in a separate city, town, village. In this regard, the construction of new settlements (which was the main task of the project. - V.L.) dangerous not only in terms of possible environmental errors, but primarily in terms of the social unformedness of new large settlements, which is always fraught with social instability.
Building on the basis of the established historical centers of the Non-Black Earth Region, which is generally more preferable, poses the problem of combining the traditional way of Russian cities with material and spiritual innovations foreign to them. The obvious revival of life in such historical centers will be perceived by the local population (and local leadership) as nothing more than external expansion. Resistance is inevitable.
The construction of new settlements and infrastructures of the western type will give rise to the migration of the population of nearby zones to such settlements. Refugees will be drawn there. In fact, a situation will arise when the funds raised will not provide for the migrants to live according to the standard of living planned by the investors. From the idea, an average solution may remain, economically inefficient and spiritually miserable.
The experts concluded that these negative consequences of the implementation of this project are largely inevitable, but their manifestation can be significantly mitigated, and to some extent overcome by introducing a block of socio-cultural design.
Positive processes, previously analyzed using predictive methods, in the expert opinion were as follows:
1. Settlers who have been trained in civilian professions in Germany will bring with them a new professional and organizational culture. Rationally located production facilities based on the achievements of the scientific and technological revolution will be able to rely on qualified personnel potential. Thus, the outstripping social and cultural development of the places of the new settlement, which will arise as a result of a large currency and material-production injection, will continue as a trend for decades.
2. The delicate intervention of new construction in the existing structure of historical Russian centers and especially the formation of a modern social infrastructure will give these centers dynamism. The economic and spiritual dynamism of small and medium-sized cities in Russia is a decisive condition for the development of Russia, and the unfolding of this process in the Non-Black Earth region, on the near approaches to Moscow, is most consistent with the traditions of Russian spiritual life.
3. "Oasis" settlements, what will become settlements, built with funds, according to projects and from the materials of the Federal Republic of Germany, with all the disadvantages of a sociocultural nature, they also have an important advantage: they act as a kind of landmarks, models that will lead to a series of direct and indirect imitations (similar to the plan of the Moscow "New Cheryomushki", reproduced in various cities of the country) and, accordingly, searches in areas that previously did not receive public recognition and support.
4. The presence of a large contingent of young people among the migrants raises the question of the education system in the places of new settlements, and this can turn from a problem into one of the achievements. The development of large educational centers in small towns of the Non-Chernozem region should be carried out according to the model of university campuses. In such university centers new forms of reunification of the intellectual forces of Russia and the West would be possible.
In the above example, there is no hierarchy of highlighted issues. In other cases, search forecasting allows you to formalize the problem field in the form of a “problem tree”, which was discussed above (in Chapter 3). It is important to emphasize that in the last group of assessments, forecasting actually turns into the concept of a social project.
Normative forecast.A normative forecast is a prediction of the future states of a social phenomenon (process), provided that active actions are taken in relation to it in accordance with pre-established goals, rules and indicators. In our case, this means that the future states of social innovation and its environment are predicted according to previously known standards.
The essence of the normative forecast is the optimization of the management decision, i.e., the choice of the best (from the possible) solution in accordance with the intended goal. In the search forecast, an assessment is given of the probable, in the normative - the desirable (subject to predetermined norms) state of the social object 29 .
As part of the development of a normative forecast, it is especially important to apply the principle, which is called Pareto efficiency. Pareto-efficient is a position that allows you to provide at least one person with more welfare in such a way as not to reduce the welfare of anyone else.
This approach is used in world practice in the organization of the public sector economy. E. B. Atkinson and J. E. Stiglitz in their Lectures on the Economics of the Public Sector, in particular, write: positions of the Pareto concept” 30 .
It is obvious that this principle may well be applied to the peculiarities of the social sphere.
Since the normative forecast is associated with goal setting, within its framework, the systematization of goals in the form of their hierarchy as a “tree of goals” has been greatly developed (for a “tree of goals”, see Chapter 3).
Forecasting and the problem of risk management. To a certain extent, the various goals of social forecasting can be reduced to identifying likely risks and identifying ways to avoid them. Of course, this is only one side of the assumptions about the future of our project. Forecasting will show us the positive aspects of the project, will allow us to establish our intention to implement it. But we should remember what we set when planning the project (see Chapter 3) the rule of consequences according to which it is recognized that every project has positive and negative consequences and one should strive to minimize the negative and maximize the positive consequences of its implementation.
Given this, we can recognize that even the most remarkable achievements that a project promises us are worth little if the risk of negative consequences of its implementation is high.
The problem of risk management has become one of the most urgent for society today. Global, regional, local risks have become extremely diverse, and their identification and prevention has become the most important task of ensuring international and national security. Emergencies have become commonplace. The level of risk of natural and man-made disasters at the beginning of the 21st century is extremely high.
On this basis, a theoretical concept of the opposite of risk and security has been developed. Perhaps most of all, this is seen in the concepts of emergency risk management, in which the concept of about risk as about the probability of a catastrophe and the damage that it can cause. Risk assessment in this case has the form of a numerical mark on the scale, fixing the indicators of expected losses in a particular area at a certain time.
At the scientific-practical conference "Emergency Risk Management" held by the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia, the Ministry of Industry and Science and Russian Academy Sciences (2001), it was determined that the main task of risk management should include both an assessment of the size of a particular risk, and an assessment of how big the risk is for us. It follows from this that the risk management process has two sides: 1) an objective risk assessment is based on various data correlated with established indicators and standards; 2) subjective assessment is based on an analysis of how the given risk (probable danger) is perceived by society and what are the ideas that have developed in public opinion about ways to overcome the risk. “Thus, the first step in risk management is the calculation of risk probability. The second stage is its qualitative assessment, i.e., the idea of its importance” 31 .
A broader understanding of the specifics of risks is provided by concepts in which risk is opposed to uncertainty. An indeterminate situation is a situation in which two or more opposite possibilities can become real at once. The risk in this case is way to overcome uncertainty because it means choosing one of the possibilities 32 .
It is obvious that such an approach covers a much wider range of phenomena, including those related to the features Everyday life of people. From it grew the concept of "risk society", which comes from the notion that modern society has risk as its necessary component: the production and distribution of wealth gives way to the production and distribution of risks and threats. The task is not so much in anticipating and reducing risks, but in adapting a person to life in conditions of uncertainty, to actions in a situation of risk 33 .
Such an interpretation of risks is more consistent with the peculiarities of predicting the consequences of social design. It also requires a more careful attitude to traditional methods of social forecasting, since the difficulties of their application depend on the level of social control, on how much we are able to stop the “rushing truck” (an image used by the prominent English sociologist Anthony Giddens to characterize risk-producing modernity) 34 .
Nevertheless, the main methods of social forecasting may well be used in assessing the viability of social projects.
The main methods of social forecasting. Forecasting is a type of professional activity closely related to the current level of development in a number of areas of mathematics. Until recently, specialists with a good mathematical education and practical programming experience were mainly involved in predictive research. But the computerization of society has changed the picture. What used to be within the competence of only mathematicians has become part of the software packages available to any user. Many of those who do not have special mathematical training (although it is, of course, desirable in this work) have approached forecasting. The humanists have brought more realistic and meaningful interpretations of the data to forecasting. This had a positive impact primarily on social forecasting, which in many respects remains the art of interpretation.
The main methods of social forecasting are extrapolation, modeling, expertise
Extrapolation. Extrapolation is the distribution of conclusions made in the study of one part of a phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. In the social field, it is a way of predicting future events and states, based on the assumption that some trends that have manifested themselves in the past and in the present will continue.
Extrapolation example: a series of numbers 1,4, 9, 16 suggests that the next number will be 25, since the beginning of the series is the squares of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. We extrapolated the found principle to the unwritten part of the rad.
Extrapolation is widely used in demography when calculating the future size of the population, its sex and age and family structures, etc. Using this method, the future rejuvenation or aging of the population can be calculated, the characteristics of fertility, mortality, marriage rates are given in periods that are several years away from the present. decades.
With the help of computer programs (Exel, etc.) it is possible to build an extrapolation in the form of a graph in accordance with the available formulas.
Modeling. Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their counterparts - real or mental.
An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are more often used. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful management decision, all the more dangerous for people. The main feature of a mental model is that it can be subject to any kind of tests, which practically consist in changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is the great advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, an approximation to which may be desirable for the creators of the project.
In modern concepts of social management, it is established that the modeling method answers the question of how goal setting is carried out. This means that the construction of a social model implies, among other things, the definition of the general goal of the social system (maintaining its integrity and conditions for development) and the division of the general goal into a number of subgoals 35 . In social design, it is more accurate to say that a model created on the basis of a plan and preliminary information makes it possible to identify, clarify and limit the goals of the project being developed.
At the same time, the disadvantage of the model is its simplification. Certain properties and characteristics of a real object in it are coarsened or not taken into account at all as insignificant. If this were not done, the work with the model would be extremely complicated, and the model itself would not contain dense, compact information about the object. And yet there are potential errors in the application of modeling to social engineering and forecasting.
The main stages of mathematical modeling will be presented in accordance with the description of B. A. Suslakov 36 .
1. First, a mathematical model (“mathematical image”) of the object (phenomenon, process) under study is formulated. The most significant relationships that characterize the object are selected, while others (side, random) are discarded. The selected links are written in the form of equations.
2. The model must be studied with different parameter values. For this, numerical methods (computational algorithms) are used. The choice of a computational algorithm is the content of this stage of work.
3. The computational algorithm is being translated into a programming language.
4. To obtain data on the properties of the object being modeled, which are included in the model in the form of equation coefficients, an auxiliary computational experiment is carried out.
5. Mathematical methods are used to process observational data on the behavior and states of a real object.
6. Calculations are made on the computer according to the compiled program. The result of the experiment carried out on the model is recorded in a set of numbers.
7. At the final stage, the results are analyzed and compared with other data obtained both theoretically and as a result of real experimentation.
These are the stages of mathematical modeling of social phenomena and processes, which is a complex professional activity. With the development of computer programs math modeling becomes available to a much larger number of creators of social projects, including small ones.
Modeling can also be applied in non-mathematical forms.
Modeling specialist Yu.M. Plotinsky rightly writes: “The idea that the model can only be mathematical, rooted in school years, is deeply erroneous. The model can also be formulated in natural language” 37 .
This circumstance is important to take into account in social design. Modeling techniques can facilitate design tasks and make the project visible. Many, while talking, hold a sheet of paper in front of them and, in the course of presenting their point of view, fix the main points, indicate the links between them with arrows and other signs, etc. This is one of the common forms visualization, widely used in modeling. Visualization is able to more clearly reveal the essence of the problem and clearly indicate in which directions it can be solved and where to expect success and where failure.
Interesting ideas in the field of visualization have recently been proposed by a well-known specialist in management and organizational consulting, Yu. D. Krasovsky. The methodological tool that he proposed for diagnosing organizations turned out to be very simple and universal, and besides, it was also suitable for constructing managerial scenarios. This or that organizational problem is presented in the form of a model: a cross-shaped intersection of two 10-point scales, each of which is constructed as a pole differentiation of a trait. This is how, for example, the problem of visualizing a model of possible counseling strategies is solved. 38
Many other models are built in this way, for example, the orientational model of the preferred behavior of company employees: "client behavior - anti-client behavior", "pseudo-client behavior - client-selective behavior". Diagnostics of the company is easily carried out in such a coordinate system, and possible trends of movement towards one or another perspective are immediately clear (usually along a diagonal passing through the intersection of coordinates). We can say that Krasovsky managed to develop express methods of visual modeling that make it possible to bring the tasks of diagnosing an organization as close as possible to the tasks of decision making.
The value of non-mathematical modeling for social design is very high. The model allows not only to develop an effective management decision, but to simulate conflict situations, probable when making a decision, and ways to reach agreement.
In fact, modeling is any kind business games. Some of the domestic developments in this area (“innovative games” according to the method of V. S. Dudchenko, “ensemble games” according to the method of Yu. D. Krasovsky) can be successfully applied in social design precisely from the standpoint of developing various predictive models.
The analysis and modeling of social systems has recently been developed into an autonomous sociological discipline with original mathematical software.
Expertise. Expertise is a special method of forecasting. In social design, it is used not only to solve problems of predictive justification, but also wherever it is necessary to deal with issues with a low level of certainty of the parameters to be studied.
Expertise in the context of research on artificial intelligence is interpreted as a resolution of a hard-to-formalizable(or poorly formalized) tasks. Arose in connection with the problems of programming, this understanding of expertise has acquired a system-wide character. It is the difficulty of formalizing a certain task that makes other methods of its study ineffective, except for expertise. As a way to describe the problem by formal means is found, the role of accurate measurements and calculations increases and, on the contrary, the effectiveness of expert assessments decreases.
So, expertise is a study of a problem that is difficult to formalize, which is carried out by forming an opinion (preparing a conclusion) of a specialist who is able to make up for the lack or non-systematic nature of information on the issue under study with his knowledge, intuition, experience in solving similar problems and relying on "common sense".
A social project is subject to expertise throughout its development and implementation.
At the stage of concept development, many indicators are set by experts to measure the effectiveness of the project. The viability assessment of a project relies heavily on expert judgement, both for the project and for social environment into which it is embedded. Diagnostic and predictive research in the social field is impossible without the use of expert methods. When considering the prepared text of the project by the competition commissions, investors, state authorities and local governments, other organizations that make management decisions on the project, an examination is also carried out. The project is evaluated by experts within the framework of current control over its implementation. Finally, the completion of the project, the establishment of whether it was possible to implement it in accordance with the plan, also involves an examination.
When working with social projects, various types of expertise can be used insofar as the project provides for construction, or activities requiring licensing, or interference with the natural environment. This is how it works with all projects. But the peculiarity of social projects is that social expertise plays a leading role here - a special type of expert work.
Social expertise
Social expertise is a type of expert research that is in its infancy. A general idea of its meaning and purpose has not yet been formed. Nevertheless, there are many attempts to develop special expert complexes that have the features of social expertise (socio-humanitarian expertise, family expertise, etc.).
Actually, in two directions - the inclusion of social expertise in a wider expert complex and the development of its components - and this method of assessing social innovations is being formed.
The concept of social expertise.Social expertise is a study conducted by specialists (experts), including diagnosing the state of a social object, establishing the reliability of information about it and its environment, predicting its subsequent changes and impact on other social objects, as well as developing recommendations for making management decisions and social design in conditions when the research task is difficult to formalize.
when we speak "social facilities" we mean people, social communities, social institutions and processes, organizations, social values, ideas, concepts, regulations that directly or indirectly provide for social changes, social projects, etc. The list of social objects should not be closed, since social reality is diverse and irreducible to a small number of characteristics. At the same time, the practical tasks of social expertise make it necessary, if not to exclude some social objects from the scope of expert research, then at least to give them different meanings.
Our definition of social expertise reflects its main functions:
- diagnostic function - examination of the state of the social object at the time of the study;
- information and control function - study of information about a social object and its environment in order to establish its reliability and make appropriate adjustments if the information contains distortions;
- predictive function - identification of possible states of a social object in the short, medium and long term and possible scenarios for the object to achieve these states;
- design function - development of recommendations on the subject of social object expertise for social design and management decision-making.
Purpose and tasks of social expertise. In general the purpose of social expertise is to establish the compliance of the activities of public authorities, other social institutions with the interests of citizens and the tasks of social policy, as well as the formation of proposals to achieve this compliance. In relation to social design, this goal may be more clear: social expertise should establish the degree to which the social project meets the interests and expectations of those people who are directly or indirectly associated with the project.
Social expertise cannot be boundless in terms of goals and objectives, otherwise its implementation will lose its practical meaning. When we talk about establishing the conformity of the activities of state authorities and other social institutions with the interests of citizens and the tasks of social policy (or narrow this idea in relation to social projects), we denote by this the result to which the examination should lead. But if the experts took into account all possible situations in which the interests of people are affected, then they would be in an extremely difficult position due to the volume of activity and its uncertainty. Therefore, it is necessary to clarify the goal-setting of social expertise through item expert assessments.
The subject of social expertise. Most often, social expertise is conducted in three areas, which reflect the subject of assessment.
1. Experts establish social consequences for people (groups, population) accepted and prepared for the adoption of social projects.
2. With the help of an examination, the compliance of the implemented project with its original intent, as well as with the management decision adopted in relation to the project, can be established.
3. Expertise can reveal the adequacy of perception in the public mind of the accepted or prepared project.
The subject area of social expertise is aimed at overcoming the gap between the legal, organizational and managerial support of social policy and the realities of life. This determines the importance of expert assessments for social design.
Organization of social expertise. The possibilities and methods of conducting social expertise stem from the specifics of organizational and managerial decisions, since its purpose ultimately comes down to servicing them. The problems of organizing social expertise are directly related to the problems of organizational and managerial activities.
The applied purpose of social expertise is the ability of expert assessments and proposals to influence managerial decisions in the social sphere from the point of view of their optimization. Public authorities, local governments, public organizations, project organizers are interested in this - in general, diverse structures and formations that make management decisions (below, we use the general term “decision-making bodies” for all such structures and formations).
The need for social expertise arises whenever a decision of a normative nature (adopted or prepared for adoption) can have a positive or negative impact on people's livelihoods; however, the decision-making body is not clear on:
The possible extent of the impact of the decision on the life of people;
The extent to which the consequences of the implementation of a managerial decision will differ for different social groups, different territories, how they will manifest themselves in different socio-cultural conditions;
What resources are needed.
Uncertainties of this kind can be generated by various reasons. A source of ambiguity may be the very fact that there is no common opinion in the decision-making body. In other cases, there is a lack of arguments for and against the prepared decision or the impossibility of obtaining arguments in a way other than an expert one. But at the same time, the named body has an intention to predict the consequences of its decisions and social project activities. Or is there a need to reasonably resist external pressure “from above”, “from below”, “from the side” (decisions or draft decisions of bodies more high level subordinate bodies, other participants in social management), seeking recognition of these arguments. Often, leaders have a desire to rely in their actions on the authority of specialists.
Finally, there is a situation where there are several conflicting decisions (projects) that require an external arbiter in order to determine the best option.
Thus, the applied purpose of social expertise is associated not only with the adjustment of managerial decisions, but also with the general cultural and general social meaning of the activities of decision-making bodies, no matter what level of authority they have been assigned.
Making a decision to conduct an examination is a typical management act with its own characteristics. The task for examination includes:
Determination of the social problem in connection with which the examination is carried out (including the establishment of the scale, carriers, stage of development of the problem, etc., which is not included in the task, but certainly precedes the development of initial formulations);
Setting the goal of the expert study;
Putting forward requirements for the form of presentation of the result of the examination.
This means that the decision-making body is in no way entrusted with a special part of the expert work, and the task of experts is to give an opinion in a form understandable to non-specialists. To ensure this task, when organizing social expertise, it is usually necessary that its participants be not two (“customer” - “executor”), but three (“customer” - “organizer” - “executor”).
Models of social expertise. Examination can be carried out according to the model "Review" - the most traditional form of peer review, mainly used in the analysis of texts (documents). This is an expert's review of the materials presented to him for study. The review contains positive and negative characteristics and a general conclusion on these materials. The difference from the review of a literary or theater critic here is that the expert's opinion contains a mandatory answer to the questions previously identified in the examination task and predetermining the adoption of a particular managerial decision.
A review is the simplest and least expensive examination of a document, but it does not contain all the advantages of expert work and may mislead the decision-making body about the true state of affairs or the prospects for finalizing the document.
Within the framework of this model, a variant compensating for these shortcomings can be provided. His schema is:
The review is ordered by several unrelated experts, and the order contains a list of requirements, including the wording of questions that the experts must answer without fail and unambiguously;
Reviews are accepted without any quality restrictions, except for the items specified in the terms of reference;
The texts of reviews are examined by specialists (who are not assigned actual expert tasks) with the help of sociological methods adopted in the processing of documentary sources;
The results of the secondary processing of expert assessments are included in the examination report, which is submitted to the body that ordered the expert study.
Within the framework of this model, consulting can also be considered: in fact, this is a review without presenting the text of an expert opinion.
Another model for the organization of expertise - "Monitoring". Monitoring is a regularly repeated study of the same object (phenomenon, process) using the same methodology. Such a study makes it possible to reveal the dynamics of the development of an object (phenomenon, process). The monitoring model is used if the production of social expertise is carried out on a long-term basis.
The use of monitoring is ineffective if the nature of the tasks to be solved is diverse and cannot be reduced to a small number of parameters. Another feature of monitoring is that it reveals its effectiveness only when sufficient material is accumulated to compare the studied phenomena or processes.
Examination can be carried out according to the model "Project". This model of expert research is aimed at solving a group of related tasks, in which expert evaluation acquires instrumental significance as the basis for designing desired social states and trends.
Recently, ideas about the wider involvement of specialist experts for the purposes of social design have been considered in connection with the interpretation of the results of expert surveys. The expert survey revealed the function of “integrating the concepts of improving social facilities, the methodical and procedural implementation of which makes it possible to carry out the task of identifying and studying problem situations, putting forward ways to solve them in the form of integrated programs (concepts), a system of measures to improve these objects, target programs, the implementation of which will be a practical solution to problems” 39 . From this idea, developed in relation to expert knowledge and its use in sociological research, there is only a step to organizing work with experts according to the “Project” model.
Models "Review", "Monitoring", "Project" do not exhaust the possible organizational forms of social expertise. The difference in the tasks that have to be solved in each specific case, as well as the difference in resources (personnel, financial, material and technical), as well as organizational and activity schemes familiar to a given situation, determine the choice of the form of expert research. A combination of several forms of expertise is also possible.
Examination of competitive projects. In some cases, it becomes necessary to conduct an examination of social projects and programs that are submitted for the competition. Then there is a specific expert task of comparing different texts and preferring one or another of them. The grounds for preference are established depending on the objectives of the competition.
A similar task was solved in the 1990s by the Expert Advisory Council on projects and programs of youth and children's associations in the field of state youth policy (since 2001, the Expert Advisory Council has been operating within the framework of a corresponding competition held by the Russian Ministry of Education). Based on more than 350 projects and programs reviewed, the Council formulated its recommendations to the experts. According to the recommendations, the expert establishes:
- social significance of the project (program): relevance of the declared activity; clarity of purpose; originality (novelty) of the idea; legitimacy, admissibility of activity; social consequences; the possibility of developing the project, its prospects; the ability to play in other conditions;
- the scale of the planned activity, estimated duration and rhythm of the event; circle of persons to whom the project is addressed; the ratio of children (youth) and adults; the number of people employed in active forms of activity; the need for special training; the share of funds to ensure the essence of the project in the total planned costs of the project;
- realism of the project (program): the ability of a youth, children's association to implement a competitive project, confirmed by previous activities; the availability of trained personnel or the possibility of attracting them from outside; validity of the venue of the event; validity of expectations from project participants; rationality of cost estimates.
The peculiarity of this type of examination is that, nominally or in fact, the expert becomes a member of the jury, he is forced to build an "elevator" of projects, not limited to preferring the best and rejecting all the others.
Technological methods of working with a large number projects developed by many expert councils. One option is the rules adopted by the expert councils of the Open Society Institute.
The order of work of expert councils is usually as follows:
1. Experts prepare conclusions separately for each of the competitive projects (the length of the conclusion is from a paragraph to 1.5 pages; large texts of the conclusions do not cause approval, since they are more difficult to work with).
2. When there are several (at least two, but usually 4-5) expert opinions for each project, an expert council (5-7 experts in the field) is assembled to consider all submitted projects based on the opinions received. The participants of the meeting themselves conducted the examination of projects, for each project at least two of them were the authors of the conclusions.
3. Projects are divided into three groups: a) projects that have received all positive ratings; b) projects that received all negative ratings; c) projects evaluated positively by some experts and negatively by others. For the first group, there is no need to hold discussions until the moment when the question of the distribution of prizes becomes. The second group is excluded from the discussion. The third one forms the basis of the work of the expert council. It happens that assessments are diametrically opposed (categorically “for” or categorically “against”). The overall assessment is formed (sometimes after additional examination) in accordance with the criteria established by the council, and the project falls into the first or second group.
At the Open Society Institute, which handles applications for grants from the George Soros Foundation, the following “recommended criteria” guide the evaluators of projects:
1. The project meets the concept of the program, its priorities, its implementation contributes to the formation of an open society in Russia, pluralism, democracy, and the development of humanitarian values.
2 The project is innovative, unique in many ways, few people are trying to implement something similar
3. Implementation of the project will significantly change the situation for the better or benefit a significant number of people.
4. It is clearly shown by whom and how the project will be implemented, the responsibilities and functions of each project participant are clear.
5. The project implementers are experienced and qualified enough to effectively achieve the set goal.
6. The project budget is real, balanced, well justified, there are no excessive requirements for any of the budget items.
7. The remuneration paid to the project participants is not excessive and corresponds to the time spent and the qualifications of the work performers.
8. The requested equipment in the specified quantity and declared specification is really necessary for the implementation of the project.
9. The planned trips are really necessary for the implementation of the project.
10. If I could manage the requested amount of money to support projects in this area, I would prefer to allocate exactly this amount of funds for the implementation of this particular project.
12. After the termination of financial support, the project can develop further on its own, or future alternative sources of its financing are clear.
13. The project is not of a political or commercial nature, it is not aimed at supporting one of the political parties or for profit.
14. In accordance with the proposed criteria, as well as in connection with its own expert assessment, this project should be supported.
For each of the criteria, the expert has the opportunity to express his opinion with varying degrees of certainty: a four-tier rating scale is used: “yes”, “rather yes”, “rather no”, “no”. When comparing expert assessments, special attention is paid to criteria 1, 5, 13 and 14.
Such criteria are formed by many expert councils considering socially significant projects. This introduces expertise within a fairly defined framework and allows for effective expert work.
Experts.Expert(from the Latin expertus - experienced) - this is a specialist in the field of science, technology, art, etc., investigating a question, the solution of which requires special knowledge. In other words, this a person (group of persons) competent in the issue under study, i.e., having or being able, for one reason or another, to have special knowledge about the object and be able to evaluate it, as well as having experience in solving similar problems.
Competence is the main requirement for an expert, no matter what role he is assigned to different types expertise.
An expert, as follows from the above definition of expertise, must have such qualities as knowledge, intuition, experience And "common sense". These properties form competence framework expert. In addition, personal qualities also matter: the ability to work in a group, change opinions under the influence of arguments, not pressure, flexibility of mind, etc.
Expert selection methods. How is it possible to select among specialists those who are able to act as experts in social expertise? For this, special selection methods are used.
In practice, it is often used method of random mechanical selection. In another way, the choice of any of those who work in the relevant position. Sometimes some indicators are taken into account (for example, academic degree). But such a selection
high risk of getting an incompetent conclusion. Therefore, more complex procedures are applied.
The selection of specialists as experts can be carried out according to documentary data. The main features taken into account in this selection: occupation and length of service in this profile. Additional features: level and nature of education, age, publications and some others (depending on the purpose of the examination). However, such a selection does not allow one to single out those properties of an expert that are not limited to work experience and basic education received.
With long-term practice of working with experts, the indicator is used: the ratio of the examinations successfully carried out by this specialist to the total number of examinations conducted by him. The requirements in this case are as follows: 1) the expert's estimates must be stable in time and transitive; 2) the presence of additional information improves the estimate; 3) expert - a recognized specialist; 4) he has experience of successful examinations 40 .
The method of selecting experts based on their self-assessments. The procedure provides that each specialist evaluates himself according to three indicators: “knowledge”, “experience”, “ability to foresee events”. The assessment consists in choosing one of the three values of the rank scale: "high", "medium", "low". These values receive a numerical expression (respectively, 1; 0.5; 0). Next, the cumulative index is calculated using the formula:
