Social forecasting as a method for studying the prospects for the development of social objects. Typology of social forecasts. Methods of social forecasting. The current state of social forecasting in the Russian Federation. Ways of social forecasting
Introduction
1.1 Prerequisites for the emergence and essence of social forecasting. Factors and principles of social forecasting
Conclusion
Introduction
Social forecasting is a special study of possible options for the development of social objects. A social object can be a social phenomenon, a process, a social stratum, and the social state of an individual. The purpose of social forecasting is to prepare scientifically based proposals on the direction in which the development of a social object is desirable.
Social forecasting has great importance in modern science. The events that have taken place in the life of society, the decisions taken by the heads of state, entail certain consequences. Today, managerial decisions are made under the influence of existing socio-economic problems in society. Forecasts make it possible to influence social processes, increase the efficiency of decisions made, and avoid undesirable consequences for society. Today, forecasting is an integral part of management activities.
A forecast is a scientifically based judgment about the possible states of an object, about alternative ways of its development over time, about the effect of various external and internal factors on the object.
The main methods of social forecasting include logical methods, mathematical methods and modeling methods, as well as expert methods; The methodology of predictive research is based on the most valuable theoretical achievements of many sciences: history, mathematics, philosophy, sociology, etc.
The purpose of the course work is to study the role of social forecasting in modern society and identify the features of social forecasting in the Russian Federation.
The purpose of the course work predetermined the solution of the following tasks:
social forecasting indicator Russian
describe the prerequisites for the emergence and essence of social forecasting, the factors and principles of social forecasting;
consider social forecasting as a tool for substantiating the social policy of the state;
consider the system of social forecasts and programs in the Russian Federation;
analyze the impact of social forecasts on the development of modern society;
identify problems in the development of social forecasting in modern conditions and ways to solve them;
consider predictive calculations of indicators of social development.
The subject of the research is the role of social forecasting in the development of modern society. The object of research is social forecasting.
1. Theoretical and methodological foundations of social forecasting
.1 Prerequisites for the emergence and essence of social forecasting. Factors and principles of social forecasting
The birth of social prognostics took place in the 20-30s of the 20th century, when the ambiguity of social development became obvious: new stage scientific and technological progress, a socialist state arose that offered new alternatives to the future, the third world began to awaken with its colossal human reserves and social problems.
This awareness of a new reality paved the way for the emergence of prognostics as a science. In the conditions of global wars and local military conflicts, economic and political upheavals that filled the entire world history of the 20th century, the appeal to social forecasting was predominantly of an emergency nature. The scientific need for forecasting was formulated by the American scientist N. Wiener in the form of the foundations of cybernetics in the 40s. XX century. At the end of the 1950s and into the 1960s, a wave of boom in scientific-technical, socio-economic, demographic, military-political forecasts swept through. This situation has led to intensive development of questions of methodology and methods of forecasting (G. Theil, B. de Jouvenel, D. Bell, E. Young, F. Polak). Modern social forecasting dates back to works that appeared in the late 1940s (J. Bernal, N. Wiener). During this period, the concept of the scientific and technological revolution was developed, the effect of using search and normative forecasts in the management of social processes was discovered. In 1968, when the entire world community was concerned about the ongoing threats of the start of a third world war, the prominent public figure and industrialist A. Peccei founded the Club of Rome, an international organization of scientists, politicians and entrepreneurs, whose goal was to draw attention to strategic problems and prospects for global development.
During the 90s of the XX century, a great leap took place in the public consciousness, which is characterized by a deep realization that it is social goals that unite people within the framework of the state, that the main wealth is human potential.
According to scientists, that society is progressing, in which both the number and life expectancy of people are constantly increasing, material income per inhabitant is growing, and the social and cultural sphere is developing.
Social forecasting is the process of developing social forecasts based on scientific methods knowledge of social and economic phenomena and the use of the entire set of methods, means and methods of social forecasting. Social forecasting is a scientific economic discipline that has as its object the process of reproduction of human capital, and the subject is the knowledge of the possible states of functioning social objects in the future, the study of patterns and methods for developing social forecasts.
Social forecasting is the process of developing social forecasts based on scientific methods of understanding social and economic phenomena and using the entire set of methods, means and methods of social forecasting.
One of the important areas of forecasting social development is social forecasting - a scientific economic discipline that has as its object the process of reproduction of human capital, and the subject is the knowledge of the possible states of functioning social objects in the future, the study of patterns and methods for developing social forecasts.
Forecasting, including social forecasting, correlates with a broader concept - foresight as a forward reflection of reality, based on knowledge of the laws of nature, society and thinking.
The main forecasting methods include:
· statistical methods <#"justify">The main functions of social forecasting are as follows:
systemic and systematic study of socio-economic objects (including the study of the dynamics, structure of states; typology of socio-economic objects);
identification and analysis of general and particular patterns and trends in the development of socio-economic objects (including the construction of a theory of functioning and development; construction of integral indicators of the quality or efficiency of the functioning of a socio-economic system; identification of explicit and latent factors of development, etc.) ;
assessment of the impact of identified trends in the future (research and modeling of the genesis of phenomena);
anticipation of new socio-economic situations, problems that need to be addressed;
identification of possible development alternatives in the future, as well as an appropriate economic assessment of time, material and financial resources to achieve them;
development of systems for monitoring the effectiveness of the functioning of socio-economic forecasting systems;
accumulation of information on the reliability of the developed forecasts, in order to optimize them.
At the present stage of development of prognostication Nayborodenko N.M. identifies several methodological principles on the basis of which the forecast object is analyzed and the forecast itself is developed.
The principle of consistency implies the perception of society as a complex, ordered whole, including individuals and social communities, united by various connections and relationships that are specifically social in nature.
With the help of the principle of social determination and development, forecasting takes into account the diverse connections and dependencies in public life (within the framework of a systematic approach). Modern determinism presupposes the presence of a variety of objectively existing forms of the interconnection of phenomena.
In the methodological aspect of social forecasting, the principle of coherence is important - the harmonization of normative and search approaches and, accordingly, forecasts;
The principle of variance in forecasting orients the developers of scientific forecasts to their variants. With the help of various options for this or that forecast, the problem of choosing the most optimal, desirable, or preferred development option - society, sphere, social group - is solved.
The principle of verifiability (from "verification") of forecasting indicates a mandatory procedure for checking the developed forecasts for accuracy, reliability, reliability, and their validity. For this purpose, there is a whole group of methods, which will be discussed below.
The principle of profitability of forecasting is closely related to reliability, because only a reliable forecast can be cost-effective. This means that the costs of developing a forecast, and this is a very expensive study, should pay off and not only bring profit, income to the customer when using it, or a positive effect in any other case.
The principle of continuity of forecasting (especially in crisis conditions) requires adjustment of forecasts as new data on the object of forecasting becomes available. And this is possible with the functioning of permanent forecasting systems in research centers in order to monitor the situation and, accordingly, refine the forecast. Only in this case, you can count on a reliable forecast.
1.2 Social forecasting as a tool for substantiating the social policy of the state
Forecasting precedes decision-making, it is a very important, science-intensive part of the work, but it is extremely necessary in the process of developing an effective management decision. On the basis of forecasts, social programs for the development of the Russian Federation and regions are developed.
Socio-economic forecasts are the most important component of the planning and management system. Using numerous methods of social forecasting, it is possible to foresee options and models for the development of the socio-economic state of society, it is possible to determine how this or that management decision will affect society. Knowing the desired result of the control object, with the help of forecasting, it is possible to identify the most effective set of actions necessary to achieve the result. The results of forecasting social development are used when the authorities make specific decisions in the field of social and economic policy of states.
The results of the state forecasting of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation are used when the bodies of the legislative and executive authorities of the Russian Federation make specific decisions in the field of the socio-economic policy of the state. Forecasting performs three main functions in the state regulation of a market economy:
) foreseeing possible trends and cyclical fluctuations in the socio-economic development of a country or region in the context of global dynamics and directions of the Company's transformation;
) anticipation of options and possible consequences adopted strategic and tactical decisions in the field of socio-economic, scientific and technical, environmental, foreign economic, territorial development;
) timely introduction of adjustments or cancellation of the decision, if this is required by the changed environmental conditions, the new conjuncture of the internal and external markets.
Forecasts are needed by state bodies, first of all, to justify the strategy and development priorities for the long and medium term, i.e. for strategic planning . There are three main functions of strategic planning in a market economy. Firstly, the definition of long-term goals of the country's socio-economic development, taking into account both internal needs, stages of development and transformation, and its place in the world civilizational space, the globalizing economy. Second, the choice of strategic priorities , allowing to achieve the goals of socio-economic, scientific, technical, innovative and environmental development in the future, taking into account the priority needs, the limited resources available and the capabilities of the state. Thirdly, the development of a mechanism for the implementation of the chosen system of priorities, the use of direct and indirect state regulation of socio-economic development for this.
Social forecasting is carried out both at the state and at the municipal level. At the state level, social and socio-economic forecasts are of a more general nature, these are forecasts for the development of the country as a whole, and at the municipal level, specific forecasts for the development of the municipality are developed. The real implementation of large investment projects and programs is possible only within the framework of specific regional entities of Russia within the framework of their socio-economic development programs.
Analysis of the socio-economic situation in the region, competitive advantages, investment attractiveness, strategic development goals and objectives, priority areas for development, implementation mechanisms, resource provision - all this is contained in strategic planning documents.
For territorial entities, strategic development consists in anticipating possible changes internal and external environment of the planning object (territory), adaptation of the process of its development to them.
The use of strategic planning tools as a specific management resource makes it possible to substantiate such territorial goals and mechanisms for their achievement, the implementation of which makes it possible to ensure sustainable integrated socio-economic development of territories in the long term, rapid adaptation to changing environmental conditions.
2. The current state of social forecasting in the Russian Federation
2.1 The system of social forecasts and programs in the Russian Federation
The Government of the Russian Federation ensures the development of state forecasts for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the socio-economic development forecast) for the long-term, medium-term and short-term prospects.
Forecasts of socio-economic development are developed on the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the demographic situation, scientific and technical potential, accumulated national wealth, social structure, the external position of the Russian Federation, the state of natural resources and prospects for changing these factors.
Forecasts of socio-economic development are developed for the Russian Federation as a whole, for national economic complexes and sectors of the economy, and for regions.
Separately, the forecast for the development of the public sector of the economy is singled out.
Forecasts of socio-economic development are based on a system of demographic, environmental, scientific and technical, foreign economic, social, as well as sectoral, regional and other forecasts of certain socially significant areas of activity.
Forecasts of socio-economic development are developed in several versions, taking into account the probabilistic impact of internal and external political, economic and other factors.
Forecasts of socio-economic development include quantitative indicators and qualitative characteristics of the development of the macroeconomic situation, economic structure, scientific and technological development, foreign economic activity, the dynamics of production and consumption, the level and quality of life, the ecological situation, the social structure, as well as the systems of education, healthcare and social security of the population.
Forecast<#"justify">¾ assessment of the results of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the previous period and a description of the state of the economy of the Russian Federation;
¾ the concept of the program of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the medium term;
¾ macroeconomic policy;
¾ institutional transformations;
¾ investment and structural policy;
¾ agricultural policy;
¾ environmental policy;
¾ social politics;
¾ regional economic policy;
¾ foreign economic policy.
The program of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the medium term is officially submitted by the Government of the Russian Federation to the Federation Council and the State Duma.
The forecast of socio-economic development for the short term is developed annually.
Simultaneously with the submission of the draft federal budget, the Government of the Russian Federation shall submit to the State Duma the following documents and materials:
¾ the results of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the past period of the current year;
¾ socio-economic development forecast for the coming year;
¾ draft consolidated financial balance for the territory of the Russian Federation;
¾ a list of the main socio-economic problems (tasks) to be solved by the policy of the Government of the Russian Federation in the coming year;
¾ a list of federal targeted programs scheduled for financing from the federal budget for the coming year;
¾ the list and volumes of supplies of products for federal state needs according to the enlarged nomenclature;
¾ planned projects for the development of the public sector of the economy.
The Government of the Russian Federation shall submit, if necessary, draft federal laws providing for measures to implement the tasks of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the coming year.
The list of federal targeted programs includes:
¾ a brief description of each of the federal targeted programs adopted for implementation, including an indication of the goals, main stages and deadlines for their implementation;
¾ the results of the implementation of the main stages for the transitional federal targeted programs;
¾ the required amount of funding for each of the federal targeted programs adopted for implementation in general and by year, indicating the sources of funding;
¾ volumes of financing of federal targeted programs at the expense of the federal budget in the coming year;
¾ government program customers.
The planned projections for the development of the public sector of the economy include indicators of its functioning and development, receipt and use of income from the disposal of state property.
The planned plans for the development of the state sector of the economy contain an assessment of the effectiveness of the use of federal property and blocks of shares, as well as a program to increase the efficiency of the use of federal property.
The procedure for considering submitted documents and materials is determined by the State Duma when discussing the draft federal budget for the coming year.
The results of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the previous year are submitted by the Government of the Russian Federation to the Federation Council and the State Duma no later than February of the current year and are subject to publication.
The Government of the Russian Federation and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation provide monthly monitoring of the state of the economy of the Russian Federation and publish information and statistics on the socio-economic situation in the Russian Federation.
2.2 The impact of social forecasts on the development of modern society
The resident population of the Russian Federation as of September 1, 2014 amounted to 146.2 million people, of which 2.4 million people lived in the Crimean Federal District. Since the beginning of the year, the population of Russia has increased by 179.3 thousand people, or by 0.12 percent.
According to the latest data from Rosstat, in January-August 2014, the birth rate in the country was higher than the same period last year. In just eight months of 2014, 1288.7 thousand children were born, which is 15.2 thousand children more than in eight months of 2013. The total fertility rate for January - August 2014 amounted to 13.3 births per 1000 people (in January - August 2013 - 13.1).
Rice. 2.1 - Number of births and deaths in 2013 and 2014
Since June of this year, mortality rates show a positive downward trend. From January to August 2014, 1273.6 thousand people died, which is 9.4 thousand people less than in January-August 2013. The overall mortality rate for January-August 2014 was 13.1 deaths per 1000 population (for January-August 2013 - 13.2 deaths per 1000 population). A reduction in mortality compared to January-August last year was observed in all major classes of causes of death (especially from diseases of the circulatory system), except for diseases of the digestive and respiratory organs and all types of transport accidents.
Since June of this year, natural population growth has begun, which for eight months of 2014 amounted to 15.1 thousand people (in January-August 2013, a natural population decline was observed - by 9.5 thousand people). At the same time, natural population growth in January-August 2014 was recorded in 43 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The population increase in January-August 2014 was due to natural and migration growth.
In January-August 2014, the migration growth of the population of Russia decreased by 31.7 thousand people, or by 16.2%, which occurred as a result of an increased number of people who left the Russian Federation, including through emigrants to the CIS member states.
An increase in growth was observed in the migration exchange with the Republic of Belarus and Ukraine.
The migration situation was affected by the aggravation of the socio-political situation in Ukraine. For eight months of 2014, 6.2 thousand people applied for refugee status, which is 5 times more than in the same period in 2013 (1.2 thousand people) and 131 thousand people applied for temporary asylum (against in 2013 - 1.5 thousand people), primarily at the expense of people who were forced to leave Ukraine.
In total, from April 1 to August 31, 2014, 823.3 thousand citizens of Ukraine initially entered the territory of the Russian Federation and remained.
In 2014, the implementation of the State Program to Assist Voluntary Resettlement to the Russian Federation of Compatriots Living Abroad (hereinafter referred to as the State Program) continued. In eight months of 2014, 50.8 thousand participants of the State Program with family members arrived on the territory of the Russian Federation.
General unemployment (according to ILO methodology) continues to decline. On average, over the nine months of 2014, its level amounted to 5.1% of the economically active population. At the same time, already in September there is a seasonal upward trend in unemployment. General unemployment in September increased by 56.9 thousand people compared to August this year.
Rice. 2.2 - General unemployment rate in 2010-2014
With the exception of the seasonal factor, the unemployment rate in the III quarter of this year was fixed at the level of the second quarter and amounted to 5.2 percent. The number of people employed in the economy over the nine months of this year increased by 66.6 thousand people compared to the corresponding period last year and amounted to 71.5 million people.
Rice. 2.3 - Registered unemployment and the need for workers in 2013-2014
At the same time, the growing demographic restrictions associated with a decrease in the working-age population lead to a reduction in the economically active population. Based on the results of the population survey on employment issues, the number of economically active population for the nine months of 2014 amounted to 75.4 million people, which is 190.6 thousand people less than in the corresponding period last year.
The number of unemployed registered with the employment authorities during the first quarter of 2014 remained stable at 0.94 million people, then in the second quarter it decreased to 0.90 million people. In the third quarter, the decline in the number of officially registered unemployed continued, and by the end of the quarter of 2014 it had reached its record low for the last 10 years of 0.80 million people, while decreasing by 9.5 percent compared to the corresponding period in 2013. to September 2014, the need of employers for workers, declared to state institutions of the employment service, increased by 632.9 thousand vacancies and as of the end of September amounted to 2.04 million vacancies.
The high level of employers' need for workers and the low level of the unemployed population led to a decrease in the tension coefficient per 100 declared vacancies, which in September 2014 amounted to 48.4 people (for the corresponding period of 2013 - 60.3 people).
For eight months of 2014, 20.4 thousand work permits were issued for highly qualified foreign specialists, which is 36.9% more than in the same period last year (14.9 thousand permits).
786 work permits were issued for highly qualified specialists to work within the framework of the Skolkovo project.
Rice. 2.4 - Distribution of issued work permits for HQS by country
In January-August 2014, the number of registered patents increased by 62.9% compared to the previous year and amounted to 1596.8 thousand patents. The amount of payments for the acquisition of patents for 8 months of 2014 amounted to more than 11.5 billion rubles, which is 2.3 times more than in the same period last year. The largest number of patents was issued by citizens of Uzbekistan (38.7%), followed by citizens of Tajikistan (20.3%) and Ukraine (12.2%).
In January-September 2014, real disposable incomes of the population did not show stable growth, however, during the third quarter, their dynamics remained positive. At the same time, after a significant increase in real incomes in July - August (2.5 - 3.4, respectively), in September they slowed down to 0.6 percent. In general, in January-September 2014, the growth in real disposable income of the population amounted to 0.7% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.
According to preliminary estimates, the volume of cash income of the population in January-September 2014 amounted to 33571.3 billion rubles, with an increase of 8.2 percent compared to the previous year. Cash expenditures and savings increased by 7.4% compared to 2013 and amounted to 33,552.6 billion rubles. In contrast to previous years, household cash income in January-September 2014 exceeded expenditures by 18.7 billion rubles (in January-September 2013 household cash expenditures exceeded its income by 187.1 billion rubles). This is due to the more restrained consumer behavior of the population in the third quarter, with the growth of real disposable income.
Rice. 2.5 - Propensity to save and changes in debt on loans
In total, 76.7% of the population's cash income was used for consumer spending in January-September of the current year, for the same period last year, 76% of the income was directed for these purposes.
Support for consumer spending is the dynamics of lending to the population, which remained at the level of the previous month.
This year, the population, fearing the depreciation of the ruble, is more actively using the currency as a savings instrument.
The funds used to purchase foreign currency accounted for 5.3% of the monetary income of the population, in 2013 the share of income used to purchase foreign currency was 4.3 percent.
The net savings rate excluding the seasonal factor in September 2014 was 10%, in general for 9 months - 8.1 percent.
Rice. 2.6 - Dynamics of nominal accrued wages in 2013-2014
The average monthly accrued wages in September 2014, according to Rosstat, amounted to 31,071 rubles and increased by 6.9 percent compared to August 2013.
On average, in January-September of the current year, the nominal accrued wages amounted to 31,487 rubles (an increase of 9.5 percent compared to the previous year).
Real wages in September this year compared to September 2013 decreased by 1%, and on average for the third quarter of 2014 the decrease was 0.3 percent.
A slowdown in economic growth in the context of a growing inflationary background may hold back the growth of real wages in the fourth quarter of this year.
In general, for the nine months of 2014, real wages increased by 2.1% (5.7% - for the nine months of 2013).
Due to the high base of the second half of 2013, wage growth rates in the budget sectors of the economy are expected to slow down, although they continue to remain at a high level. The exception was education, where wages decreased in August this year by 1.2 percent compared to the same period last year. In healthcare and the provision of social services, the increase in wages in the specified period amounted to 10.3%, in activities for the organization of recreation and entertainment, culture and sports - 9.4 percent. On average, in January-August 2014, wages in education increased by 12.9% compared to the same period last year, in healthcare and social services - by 15.2%, in recreation and entertainment, culture and sports - by 20.1 percent.
The differentiation of wages between different types of economic activity in the current year has not undergone significant structural changes compared to previous years.
The most paid in January-August of the current year among the observed types of economic activity remained financial activity and the fuel and energy complex, wages in these types of economic activity exceed wages in the economy as a whole by 2.1-2.6 times, and wages in the least paid types of economic activity (textile and clothing production, production of leather, leather goods and footwear and agriculture) by 5 or more times.
In January - August of the current year, the number of employees in a comparable range of organizations relative to January - August 2013 did not change. At the same time, a comparison of the data of 2014 and 2013 shows that there is still a redistribution of workers towards the sector of trade and market services. The most significant decrease in the period under review compared to the same period last year, the number of employees decreased in agriculture and fisheries - by 3.7% and 4.1%, respectively.
The largest increase in the number of employees in the reporting period of the current year compared to the same period last year is noted in financial activities and in wholesale and retail trade - by 3% and 4%, respectively.
The reforms carried out in the social sphere, aimed at optimizing inefficient institutions, contribute to a reduction in the number of employees. In January - August 2014, compared to the same period last year, the number of employees in the organization of recreation and entertainment, culture and sports decreased by 2.6%, in education - by 1.1%, in healthcare - by 0.3 percent.
According to Rosstat, received from organizations, except for small businesses, the total wage arrears in the range of observed types of economic activity, overdue as of October 1, 2014, amounted to 2532 million rubles and decreased by 26 million compared to September 1 of the current year . rubles, or 1 percent.
The amount of overdue wage arrears as of October 1, 2014 is less than 1% of the monthly wage fund of employees in the observed types of economic activity.
From total amount 45.1% of overdue debt is accounted for by debt formed in 2013 and earlier.
The main share of wage arrears falls on debt due to lack of own funds, which decreased by 1.4% in September and amounted to 2508 million rubles (99% of the total debt).
In the total amount of overdue wage arrears, 41.5% falls on manufacturing, 15.9% - on construction, 9.7% - on transport, 9.9% - on agriculture, hunting and the provision of services in these areas, logging, 7.9% for mining, 5.1% for research and development.
Labor pensions in February and April 2014 were indexed in total by 8.2%, social pensions in April of the same year - by 17.1%. As a result, the average amount of assigned pensions, according to preliminary data from Rosstat, amounted to 10,898 rubles in September 2014 and increased by 8.5% compared to the same period in 2013, which is higher than the growth rate of consumer prices.
The subsistence minimum per capita as a whole for the third quarter of 2014 is estimated at the level of 8,086 rubles, with an increase of 8.8 percent compared to the corresponding period of 2013. At the same time, the subsistence minimum for the able-bodied population in the III quarter of 2014 is estimated at the level of 8731 rubles, for pensioners - 6656 rubles and for children - 7738 rubles.
The differentiation of the population in terms of income for nine months of 2014 remained at the level of nine months of the previous year and amounted to 15.8 times. In January-September 2014, the share of 10% of the wealthiest population accounted for 30.5% of the total monetary income of the population, and the share of 10% of the poorest population - 1.9%, which corresponds to January-September 2013.
In the field of healthcare, within the framework of the state program of the Russian Federation "Health Development", in order to ensure affordable and high-quality medical care in January - September 2014, work continued to ensure state guarantees of free medical care to citizens of the Russian Federation by expanding their rights, attracting additional funds and more efficient use of them.
In January - August 2014, 394,128 patients were provided with high-tech medical care, which is 39,926 patients more than in the same period of 2013.
In January - July 2014, compared with the corresponding period of 2013, the epidemiological situation in Russia was characterized by an increase in the incidence of a number of infectious diseases among the population, including: acute hepatitis
A, human immunodeficiency virus disease and asymptomatic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infectious status, bacillary dysentery, acute hepatitis C, acute hepatitis B.
Among those who fell ill with infectious diseases in January - July 2014, children aged 0 - 17 years were: whooping cough - 96.0%, meningococcal infection - 71.3%, acute intestinal infections - 70.4%, mumps - 48, 6%, rubella - 26.5%, acute hepatitis A - 25.4%.
The highest incidence rates of tuberculosis per 100,000 people in January-July 2014 were in the Republic of Tyva, the Jewish Autonomous Region (2.8-2.7 times higher than the Russian average), Primorsky Krai, Chukotsky , Nenets autonomous districts, Irkutsk region (2.6 - 2.1 times higher).
In January - July 2014, 42,179 people were registered with a disease caused by the human immunodeficiency virus, and with an asymptomatic infectious status caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), including children aged 0 - 17 years - 616 people. More than half (52.0%) of all identified HIV patients were registered in 11 constituent entities of the Russian Federation: in the Kemerovo region, St. Moscow region.
In the field of education, the implementation of the state program of the Russian Federation "Development of Education" for 2013-2020 continued; work was carried out to improve legislation in the field of education, development and state support for the best examples of domestic education; development of measures to implement Decree No. 599.
According to the monthly monitoring data on the coverage of children with preschool educational services and (or) childcare services, as of September 10, 2014, the number of children aged three to seven years covered by preschool education is 5,105,881 people, of which children Crimean Federal District - 79,364.
High availability rate (more than 99.0% of the satisfied demand of children from three to seven years old living in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation for services preschool education) was achieved in 14 constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
The indicator of availability of pre-school education for children aged three to seven years from 90.0% to 99.0% was achieved in 55 subjects of the Russian Federation.
The most acute problem of ensuring the availability of preschool education for children aged three to seven remains in 16 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, where the indicator of accessibility of preschool education for this age group does not reach 90 percent.
At the same time, the total number of children aged three to seven years old, registered to provide a place in state or municipal organizations of preschool education, registered in the electronic queue as of September 10, 2014, amounted to 496,483 people, of which children Crimean Federal District - 20,697.
In order to develop additional education for children, the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated September 4, 2014 No. 1726-r approved the Concept for the Development of Additional Education for Children.
By the order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated August 4, 2014 No. 1485-r, the federal state autonomous educational institution of higher education "Crimean Federal University named after V.I. Vernadsky" was established.
In order to train qualified workers, the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated July 30, 2014 No. 721 "On the organizing committee for filing an application from the Russian Federation to host the WorldSkills Competition in 2019 in the Russian Federation" was adopted; From September 13 to 18, the WorldSkills International General Assembly was held in Lucerne (Switzerland), during which the Official and Technical Delegates of the WorldSkills Russia movement officially announced the intention of the Russian Federation to apply for the right to host the next WorldSkills Competition in 2019 In Russian federation.
Based on the results of the 2014 National Championship, a National Team was formed to participate in the WorldSkills Euro Lille 2014 Professional Skills Championship. An experiment on training retired military personnel based on the provision of state personalized educational certificates was completed. Currently, according to monitoring data, 103 students have been trained, 47 students are being trained and 926 students are planned for training. The process of training retired servicemen will continue until the end of 2014.
In the field of culture, in January - September 2014, events were held within the framework of the Final of the Cultural Olympiad, which completed the four-year Cultural Olympiad, within which the Year of Cinema, the Year of Theater, the Year of Music and the Year of Museums alternated, as well as significant events in the sphere of culture, including: the program "Russian Case"; the project "Golden Mask. The best performances in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk"; XII Festival of Theaters of Small Towns of Russia was held in Kolomna and
Zaraysk. A number of major projects have been implemented, such as the "cross" Year of Russia - Holland 2013, the program of which includes events in the field of exhibition exchange, theatrical and musical art, and cinema.
In January-September 2014, 111 motion pictures and videos were released, including 15 feature films, 89 non-fiction films, and 23 animation films.
Activities in the field of physical culture and sports in January - September 2014 were aimed at the implementation of the state program of the Russian Federation "Development of physical culture and sports", the federal target program "Development of physical culture and sports in the Russian Federation for 2006 - 2015", preparation to holding international competitions on the territory of the Russian Federation.
In September of this year, the Festival "Caucasian Games" was held, the subject of the Russian Federation was determined - the winner (the Chechen Republic), for which other interbudgetary transfers will be sent for bonuses. passed the All-Russian review physical training citizens of pre-conscription and military age to military service, which includes competitions in air rifle shooting, swimming, grenade throwing, running, long jump from a run and from a place, pull-ups on the crossbar. About 700 young men of pre-conscription age took part in the Spartakiad.
From June 24 to June 29, a motor rally dedicated to the 700th anniversary of St. Sergius of Radonezh was held. The rally was held jointly by the Ministry of Sports of the Russian Federation and DOSAAF of Russia. The rally route went from Moscow to Rostov-on-Don through Tula, Oryol, Kursk and Belgorod, and on the way back through Rossosh, Voronezh region. The program of the run includes military-patriotic events (meetings with veterans and youth, laying flowers and wreaths at the monuments to the defenders of the Fatherland), as well as visiting churches and cathedrals.
In accordance with the Unified calendar plan for interregional, all-Russian and international sports and physical culture events for 2014, in the third quarter, the sports teams of the Russian Federation took part in 209 sports events, of which: - the biathlon team in 18 events, fourteen; - Nordic combined at 9; - cross-country skiing at 16; - in ski jumping at 17; - snowboarding at 12; - and freestyle at 10; - Bobsleigh at 14; - Curling at 18; - in speed skating at 17; - luge at 9; - in figure skating at 25; - hockey at 30.
The participation of athletes of sports teams of the Russian Federation in 14 international sports competitions, 1 world championship in biathlon (roller skiing), held from August 18 to 24 in Tyumen, 1 European championship in curling (double-mixed) from 11 - September 21, 2014 in Denmark, as well as in the World Cup in cross-country skiing from September 17 - 22, 2014 in Italy.
In sports not included in the program of the Olympic Games, Russian athletes took part in 116 world championships and 75 world cups, 94 championships and 14 European cups, 43 world championships, 45 European championships, as well as in 101 international sports competitions. 94 planned training events were carried out in full.
In the period from June 23 to August 15, 2014, the III Summer Spartakiad of the Youth of Russia 2014 was held, which was held in 33 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, 54 cities and towns of all federal districts except the North Caucasus Federal District.
July 2014 in Lausanne (Switzerland) the delegation of the Republic of Bashkortostan handed over the bid book for the participation of the city of Ufa in the bid campaign for the right to host the XI World Games 2021 to the International World Games Association (hereinafter - IWGA) to IWGA President Jose Peruren Lopez. Also, by the deadline, bid books were received from Birmingham (USA) and Lima (Peru). At the same time, in the period from September 30 to October 3, 2014, the IWGA Evaluation Commission, consisting of: IWGA Vice President Max Bishop, IWGA Sports Director Joakim Gossow, IWGA Honorary Vice President Ko Koren, visited Ufa, who noted the high level of readiness Ufa for the World Games.
3. Main problems and directions of development of social forecasting in the Russian Federation
3.1 Problems of the development of social forecasting in modern conditions and ways to solve them
As a result, several conclusions should be drawn:
Coordination between the types of planning within the systems and interaction between them is hampered by the lack of established systems or their imperfection from the standpoint of the requirements of modern management and legislative norms.
The effective application of coordination and interaction mechanisms depends on the establishment of a procedure for the adoption of planning documents and compliance with the norms of adopted documents in the planning process.
An active position of top managers in relation to the issue of systematic planning and a sufficient level of professionalism of specialists who form planning documents are required.
3.2 Predictive calculations of social development indicators
Health policy for the period 2015 - 2017 will be determined in accordance with the tasks set by the President of the Russian Federation in Decrees No. 597 of May 7, 2012 "On Measures for the Implementation of State Social Policy" and No. 598 "On Improving State Policy in the Sphere of Health Care", Federal Laws "On the Fundamentals of Health Protection citizens in the Russian Federation" and "On compulsory health insurance in the Russian Federation", the Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020, the Main directions of activity of the Government of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2018.
The burden of the unemployed able-bodied population on the employed population can be determined using the unemployment rate. Calculate the unemployment rate.
where is the average annual number of unemployed;
Average annual number of economically active population.
The unemployed are registered according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization (ILO).
Table 3.1
Socio-economic indicators for Russia
2010201120122013unemployed num. (thousand people) 4999424652896162 Employable population (thousand people) 66792671746801968474
Calculate the coefficients of the unemployment rate for the period from 2006 to 2009;
With the help of the graph, there is a tendency to increase the burden of the unemployed able-bodied population on the employed population. It can be assumed that one of the reasons for the increase in the burden of the unemployed able-bodied population on the employed population is demographic aging and population decline (90.2 million people in 2006 compared to 88.4 million people), however, against the background of population decline, there is trend of increasing the average annual number of unemployed. Another reason for the increase in the burden of the unemployed able-bodied population on the employed population in the period 2008-2009. there may be an economic crisis, the peak of which fell on this period.
It can be concluded that in the next forecast periods it is necessary to pay more attention to solving demographic problems.
The main instrument of the state policy of the Russian Federation in the field of healthcare will be the state program of the Russian Federation "Health Development", the main goal of which is to ensure the availability of medical care and improve the efficiency of medical services, the volume, type and quality of which must correspond to the incidence rate and the needs of the population, advanced achievements medical science.
In the medium term, it is planned to implement the following activities of the state program "Health Development":
¾ ensuring the priority of prevention in the field of health protection and the development of primary health care;
¾ improving the efficiency of providing specialized (including high-tech) medical care, emergency (including emergency specialized) medical care, medical evacuation;
¾ development and implementation innovative methods diagnostics, prevention and treatment, as well as the basics of personalized medicine;
¾ improving the efficiency of obstetrics and childhood services;
¾ development of medical rehabilitation of the population and improvement of the system of sanatorium-and-spa treatment, including for children;
¾ providing medical assistance to terminally ill patients, including children;
¾ providing the healthcare system with highly qualified and motivated personnel;
¾ enhancing the role of the Russian Federation in global health;
¾ increasing the efficiency and transparency of control and oversight functions in the field of health care;
¾ medical and biological support of public health protection.
As a result of the implementation of these measures, by 2017 the following indicators should be achieved:
¾ mortality from all causes will be reduced from 13 cases per 1000 people to 12.1 cases in 2017;
¾ mortality from diseases of the circulatory system will be reduced from 721.7 cases per 100,000 population in 2013 to 663.0 cases in 2017;
¾ mortality from neoplasms (including malignant ones) will be reduced from 201.2 cases per 100,000 population in 2013 to 194.4 cases in 2017;
¾ tuberculosis mortality will be reduced from 12.0 cases per 100,000 population in 2013 to 11.8 cases in 2017;
¾ deaths from road traffic accidents will be reduced from 14.1 cases per 100,000 population in 2013 to 11.2 cases in 2017;
¾ infant mortality will be reduced from 8.2 cases per 1,000 live births in 2013 to 7.5 cases in 2017;
¾ a decrease in the consumption of alcoholic products (in terms of absolute alcohol) from 12.5 liters per capita in 2013 to 11.0 liters in 2017;
¾ a decrease in the prevalence of tobacco use among the adult population from 37.1% in 2013 to 30.8% in 2017.
The main sources of financing in the healthcare sector will be: compulsory medical insurance funds, the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the federal budget and extra-budgetary funds.
Compulsory medical insurance funds will be formed in conditions of low economic growth rates, which will not allow a significant increase in their volumes. The dynamics of insurance premiums for the working population will correspond to the dynamics of the wage fund, which in option 1 grows moderately. When calculating the insurance premium rate for CHI for the non-working population in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, the reduction coefficients of differentiation established for each constituent entity of the Russian Federation will be applied to the specified tariff size and the coefficient of appreciation of the cost of medical services will not be applied (the indicated coefficient is 1.0). Accordingly, the volume of contributions will also not increase significantly, which will not allow an increase in the total volume of contributions.
At the same time, new types of expenditure obligations are imposed on the MHIF budget in addition to providing the basic CHI program. Starting from 2015, resource-intensive high-tech medical care (hereinafter referred to as HMC) will be financed at the expense of MHI funds, and an increase in the level of salaries of medical workers will also be ensured.
Due to the fact that the volume of expenses of the MHIF will not be covered by its income, a significant deficit of the MHIF budget will form, which will increase annually.
Thus, a situation will be formed that was previously predicted by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia: a further increase in the financial obligations of the compulsory health insurance system with a simultaneous reduction in other sources of health financing (the federal budget) will lead to an imbalance of existing obligations with the sources of their financing.
Insufficiency of financial support will negatively affect the functioning of the healthcare system and will lead to a decrease in the availability of free medical care for the population of the Russian Federation and a decrease in its quality. Queues and waiting lists may appear for the provision of planned specialized medical care for those profiles where there was no queue. Separate resource-intensive types of HMF may become practically inaccessible for part of the population. Medical organizations of the state and municipal health care systems will increase the volume of paid medical services, replacing them with free medical care.
The current situation will have a negative impact on the achievement of indicators approved by the state program "Health Development".
The right of citizens to free medical care under the Program of State Guarantees of Free Medical Care for Citizens (hereinafter referred to as the SGBP) will not be ensured in full.
The actually achieved per capita standard of financial support for the SGBP will be lower than the approved SGBP. The pace of modernization processes in the industry will slow down, including informatization and the introduction of new medical technologies.
In a moderately optimistic version of the forecast, the problem of the shortage of financial support for medical care will be partially resolved through the allocation of additional budget allocations from the federal budget.
In 2015 - 2017 the implementation of the Strategy for drug provision of the population of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 will continue. Federal budget expenditures on preferential drug provision of citizens in 2015-2017 will amount to 89.6 billion rubles annually.
In 2016 - 2017 As part of the implementation of the Drug Supply Strategy, on the basis of clear formalized criteria and principles of evidence-based medicine, the lists of vital and essential drugs, the lists of drugs for which the population is provided with preferential drug coverage, as well as the minimum range of drugs necessary for providing medical care, will be optimized. An effective system for monitoring the quality, efficacy and safety of medicines at all stages of their circulation will be created.
In selected constituent entities of the Russian Federation, pilot projects will be implemented to introduce a system of reference prices for medicines, as well as to modernize the system of drug provision (free or at a discount) for certain categories of citizens. Based on the results of their implementation in 2017, the optimal models of the system of reference prices for medicines and the system of drug provision (free or at a discount) for certain categories of citizens will be selected.
As a result of the implementation of these activities, the following indicators will be achieved:
¾ meeting the needs of certain categories of citizens in the necessary medicines and medical devices, as well as specialized medical nutrition products for disabled children will be increased from 94% in 2013 to 96% in 2017;
¾ Satisfaction of demand for drugs intended for the treatment of patients with malignant neoplasms of lymphoid, hematopoietic and related tissues, hemophilia, cystic fibrosis, pituitary dwarfism, Gaucher disease, multiple sclerosis, as well as organ and (or) tissue transplantation will be increased from 97% in 2013 up to 98% in 2017.
¾ the level of satisfaction of the needs of certain categories of citizens in medicines, which are provided at the expense of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, will be increased from 30% in 2013 to 33.2% in 2017.
In 2015 - 2017 state policy in the field of education will be focused on ensuring the implementation of the strategic goals of the development of education set in the decrees of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2012, the Concept for the long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020 and the Main directions of activity of the Government of the Russian Federation for the period until 2018, the state program of the Russian Federation "Development of education" for 2013-2020", the Action Plan ("road map") "Changes in the sectors of the social sphere aimed at improving the efficiency of education and science".
In the forecast period, the development of education will be aimed at increasing the availability and quality of all levels of education, training qualified personnel who are in demand on the labor market and able to quickly respond to its requests, optimizing the network of educational institutions and increasing their efficiency.
To solve the problem of increasing the coverage of preschool education services, it is planned to create additional places in state (municipal) educational organizations various types, as well as the development of variable forms of preschool education, the creation of conditions for the involvement of non-governmental organizations in the field of preschool education, the introduction of federal state educational standards preschool education.
The implementation of these measures will contribute to the early development of children, their more successful education in a general education school, and the elimination of queues in kindergartens. By 2016, it is envisaged to achieve 100% accessibility of pre-school education for children aged three to seven years.
In accordance with the action plan for the modernization of general education for 2011 - 2015. In 2015, the implementation of the national educational initiative "Our New School" will be completed, aimed at providing modern conditions for obtaining general education, creating effective mechanisms for improving its quality, introducing modern educational technologies, providing modern conditions for obtaining general education, expanding specialized education in high school, improving unified state exam, the formation in schools of a high-tech environment for teaching (high-speed Internet, digital resources of a new generation, virtual learning laboratories) and management (electronic document management, knowledge portals).
Measures will be continued to implement regional programs for the development of education, to develop the system distance learning.
The formation of an effective system for identifying and supporting young talents, the rejuvenation and growth of the professional level of teaching staff, the formation of a personalized system for advanced training and retraining of teachers, support for innovations and initiatives of teachers will continue, a transition will be made to an effective contract with teaching staff, the system will be modernized teacher education and advanced training.
Disabled children and children with disabilities will be given the opportunity to choose the option of mastering general education programs in a distance form within the framework of special (correctional) or inclusive education, as well as psychological, medical and social support and support in professional orientation.
In rural areas, models of network interaction between educational organizations and organizations of the socio-cultural sphere will be implemented.
As a result, the share of the number of students in state (municipal) general education organizations who are given the opportunity to study in accordance with modern requirements will be 97% in 2017 against 85% in 2014; the share of the number of disabled children enrolled in general education programs at home using distance learning technologies, respectively, will be 100% against 90%; the share of the number of teachers aged 30 years in the total number of teachers in general education schools, respectively, will reach 23% against 20%; the share of the number of students in general education programs participating in olympiads and competitions will be 44% in 2017 against 38% in 2014.
Due to the further development of the network of educational institutions (including the improvement of the organization of the provision of education through the formation of educational centers, resource centers, network models), a competitive environment will be formed in the market of educational services, stimulating the growth of their quality and diversity. This will also increase the transparency of the budget process and the financial activities of educational institutions, will help equalize the budgetary provision of the regions, will optimize and concentrate educational resources, strengthen and modernize the material and technical base of the industry.
In the forecast period, it is planned to expand the scale of the system of additional education for schoolchildren. As a result, the coverage of children aged 5-18 years with additional education programs in 2017 will be 70% against 62% in 2014.
To improve the efficiency of the vocational education system, one of the most important tasks in the forecast period will be to build a system for collecting and analyzing the needs of enterprises in the real sector of the economy in qualified personnel necessary for their functioning and successful development in the medium and long term, as well as taking into account the data obtained during such an analysis when distributing the state task for educating citizens at the federal and regional levels.
The development and modernization of vocational education provides for a qualitative renewal of the teaching staff, the development of an "effective contract" system between teachers and vocational education institutions.
During the forecast period, activities will continue to support the development programs of leading universities to achieve their leading positions in the global education system.
During the forecast period, the tasks of training mid-level specialists, as well as working professions, developing cooperation between educational institutions and business, creating tools for information support of interaction between educational organizations and enterprises interested in qualified personnel, and incentive mechanisms for involving business in the system of training specialists, remain relevant.
As part of improving the structure of higher education organizations, the following will be formed: research universities world-class, ensuring Russia's leadership in fundamental science; a group of universities of humanitarian and social orientation; universities that conduct mass training of bachelors (including applied bachelors) and specialists for mass segments of regional labor markets.
The results of the modernization of vocational education in the forecast period will be:
¾ the share of the number of students studying in the leading educational institutions of higher education will increase from 10% in 2014 to 15% in 2017;
¾ the share of the number of graduates of vocational education programs of the corresponding level in the total number of graduates by 2017 will be: 16.8% for applied baccalaureate programs (against 6.4% in 2014); undergraduate programs - 23.7% (against 17.1% in 2014); for specialist training programs - 19% (against 35.1% in 2014); for master's programs - 6.9% (against 3.9% in 2014);
¾ the share of the number of those employed no later than the end of the first year after the graduation of full-time graduates will increase from 46.7% in 2014 to 53.3% in 2017;
¾ the proportion of the employed population who have undergone advanced training and (or) retraining at the age of 25-65 will grow from 37% in 2014 to 45% in 2017;
¾ increase from 10% in 2014 to 18% in 2017, the share of institutions of secondary vocational and higher vocational education, the buildings of which are adapted for the education of people with disabilities;
¾ the share of the number of students of higher education institutions who completed at least one semester of study at a foreign university during the academic year (except for CIS universities) will increase from 1% in 2014 to 2.3% in 2017;
¾ the provision of students with hostels in 2017 will be 96% against 90% in 2014.
The implementation of the proposed measures will ensure the modern quality and accessibility of educational services, the economy's need for personnel of appropriate qualifications, and increase the competitiveness of Russian education.
The moderately optimistic variant assumes additional financial expenses relative to the base variant, which will be directed, among other things, to the implementation of the program to fill the shortage of places in hostels for non-resident students, as well as to financial support in 2015 for the implementation of activities to apply for holding in 2019 in the Russian Federation of the WorldSkills Competition.
The forecast for the development of the cultural sector until 2017 assumes an increase in the availability of cultural goods and education in the field of culture and art for Russian citizens, the creation of conditions for improving the quality of services in the cultural sector (including by raising the wages of cultural workers to the level of the average wage in the corresponding region , the growth in the number of cultural institutions, as well as the level of their attendance), the development of the socio-cultural infrastructure of small towns, the preservation and promotion of the cultural heritage of the peoples of Russia, the improvement of organizational, economic and legal mechanisms for the functioning of the cultural sphere.
Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2012 No. 597 "On Measures for the Implementation of State Social Policy", as well as the state program "Development of Culture and Tourism" for 2013-2020, provides for priority measures for the further development of the cultural sector.
In the forecast period, it is planned to solve the tasks of preserving cultural heritage sites and involving them in civil circulation; development of library, museum and archival affairs; development of performing arts, preservation and development of cinematography, traditional folk culture, folk arts and crafts; support of creative initiatives of the population, as well as outstanding figures and organizations in the field of culture, creative unions; organizing and holding events dedicated to significant events in Russian culture and the development of cultural cooperation; development of fundamental and applied research on the basis of federal scientific organizations spheres of culture.
During the forecast period, measures will be taken to increase wages for employees of cultural and art institutions, modernize the infrastructure of the cultural sector using modern technologies, and increase the availability of services of cultural institutions for the population.
In addition, state support will be provided to the cultural sector by allocating grants from the President of the Russian Federation to support creative projects leading collectives and organizations, as well as the establishment of awards of the President of the Russian Federation for young cultural figures.
Measures to improve the physical condition will be implemented in the field of archiving archival documents, including restoration, and work will also be carried out to create an insurance fund for the documents of the Archival Fund of the Russian Federation. The practice of digitizing archival documents will become more widespread, which will make it possible to obtain electronic images of documents with their quality adjusted.
Conclusion
There is no scheme for territorial planning at the federal level, just as there is no document defining the directions of regional policy.
An analysis of the current situation in Russia shows that the planning system has not been fully formed at any of the levels of state and municipal government. The most "staffed" in the normative-legal and methodological terms is the system of budget planning.
It defines not only the components, but also the methods for calculating numerous types of interbudgetary transfers. Nevertheless, it is necessary to improve the use of targeted programs as a tool for planning budget expenditures.
It is necessary to intensify activities in the field of territorial planning. The procedures for developing territorial planning documents are very costly, the municipalities that are part of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which have provided for subsidies from regional budgets, seem to be the most prepared municipalities for the formation of documents in accordance with the Town Planning Code of the Russian Federation. The unified budget system of Russia greatly simplifies budget planning in comparison with other types of planning, since the budget and tax legislation define the norms and mechanisms for interaction in the format of interbudgetary relations.
The "weak link" in comparison with the systems of the federal and regional levels seems to be municipal planning systems. The experience of law enforcement practice of modern planning at the municipal level is small, with the exception of those municipalities that, in the competitive selection of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, were included in the program of reforming "public finances" and formed the main elements of the budgetary and socio-economic planning system, as well as those few cities that which have traditionally placed system management at the forefront.
Social forecasting is of great importance in modern society. Almost all political decisions today are based on forecasts. Knowing the desired result of the control object, with the help of forecasting, it is possible to identify the most effective set of actions necessary to achieve the result. With the help of social forecasts, the most effective options for solving social problems are developed.
Social forecasting is based on scientific methods of cognition of social and economic phenomena. The main methods of social forecasting are: statistical methods<#"center">List of used literature
1.Federal Law No. 115-FZ of July 20, 1995 "On State Forecasting and Programs for the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation"
.Ivanov N.P., Stekhina S.N., Rozhkov O.P. The main directions of improving the process of financial forecasting in the system of economic development management. News of higher educational institutions. North Caucasian region. Supplement, 2013. No. 3. pp.56-68.
.Kolmakov I.B. Basics of modeling. Simulation macromodels of the market economy. M.: Publishing House of the Russian Economic Academy. G.V. Plekhanov, 2010.
.Kiselenko A.N. Forecasting and planning. - Syktyvkar: KRAGS i U, 2013. - 87 p.
.Nayborodenko N.M. Forecasting and strategy of social development of Russia. - 2nd ed. - M.: Publishing and bookshopping center "Marketing", 2013. - 352 p.
.On the results of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation // Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation [Electronic resource] Access mode: #"justify">. Suvorov A.V. Problems of analysis of differentiation of incomes of the population and construction of a differentiated balance of monetary incomes and expenditures of the population. Problems of forecasting. 2011. №1.
.Ushakov A.K., Ryazanova L.A. et al. Development of forecasts for the socio-economic development of regions using an integrated simulation model Russian Economic Journal, No. 2, 2010.
.Khristenko V.B. Interbudgetary relations and management of regional finances: experience, problems, prospects. M.: Delo, 2012. - 608 p.
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The totality of various concepts about the future of mankind is sometimes called futurology (from the Latin futurum - the future and the Greek logos - teaching). The study of the future is based on the idea of foresight, forecasting the future states of the social system.
From the point of view of the correlation of the cultural-ideological and scientific-rational components, the concept of the future can be divided into two groups. The first includes non-scientific ideas about the future, the second - scientific.
Non-scientific ideas arose in culture earlier and are of greater interest in the mass consciousness, since they do not require practical verification of their effectiveness and special preparation for perception. Elements of predicting the future are contained in magic, religion, myth. For example, Christianity contains predictions of the distant future such as the Second Coming or the Last Judgment. During the Renaissance, the social utopia became widespread. For example, the books of T. More and T. Campanella. They construct a holistic picture of the future society, taking into account the smallest details. The ways and mechanisms of achieving this future are not indicated. Literary utopias and dystopias of the 19th–20th centuries deserve attention. For example, the novels of N.G. Chernyshevsky, E.I. Zamyatin, O. Huxley, D. Orwell, F. Kafka. They help to clearly present the negative phenomena that exist only in the bud, contribute to the development of a social ideal. Fantasy plays a special role. Being a literary work in form, it relies heavily on scientific knowledge and technical achievements.
Scientific studies of the future took on a large-scale character in the 20th century and were realized in the formation of the methodology of social forecasting.
Social forecasting is a special kind of studying the future, based on special methods and characterized by a high degree of scientific validity and objectivity. The main task of social forecasting is to substantiate trends and plans for social development and increase their effectiveness. Social forecasting is the basis of social forecasting.
A social forecast is a theoretical model of the future state of the phenomenon under study. The social forecast has a probabilistic nature and is based on the ability of human consciousness to anticipate reality. There are many social forecasts that can be divided into separate types according to various criteria.
Depending on which particular sphere of reality is reflected, forecasts regarding natural or social systems differ. For example, meteorological, hydrological, geological, biomedical, socio-medical, scientific and technical forecasts.
Forecasts also differ in scale. They can describe the future state of both the system as a whole and its individual subsystems or elements. For example, the development of legal education in the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, or in the Republic of Belarus as a whole.
From the point of view of chronological parameters, forecasts can be focused on the near future or on the long term: long-term, medium-term, short-term.
Social forecasts relating to specific areas of society and designed for rapid implementation in the current time are called social technologies. Specific indicators play a leading role in their development. Long-term forecasts are built on the basis of an integrated and systematic approach. Their direct effectiveness is lower than that of short-term forecasts, but the choice of alternative development models is richer.
Social projections take into account practical relevance and anticipated reactions from stakeholders. Depending on this, they are search, regulatory and analytical. Search forecasts build a probabilistic model, i.e. show what the future can be, in what direction development will go while maintaining existing trends. Often they are in the nature of a warning. Normative forecasts contain goals and recommendations, set a specific framework for the development of a process and its desired results. They are based on a legal basis and may be prescriptive. Analytical forecasts not only create alternative models of the future, but also evaluate the methods and means, costs and expenses in achieving them.
The effectiveness of social forecasts is determined by objectivity and accuracy in the analysis of real processes; professionalism, responsibility and ideological attitudes of the developers of forecasts; availability of technological and financial resources. Social forecasting methods play a leading role in the development of forecasts.
There are a fairly large number of different methods, special techniques, technical, mathematical and logical means of creating social forecasts. The most famous of them:
The extrapolation method is based on the distribution, transfer of the characteristics of a part or element of a phenomenon to the entire phenomenon as a whole. For example, based on the observation of individual members of a social group, a conclusion is made about the level of culture of the entire group.
The interpolation method is based on transferring the characteristics of an integral reality to the elements of which it consists. If we turn to the previous example, then interpolation consists in projecting conclusions about a social group onto each individual member of this group.
The method of historical analogy is based on the assumption of similarity, correspondence of the states of the same phenomenon in the present and future.
The modeling method is based on the creation of special substitutes for real objects or phenomena in order to study their properties and reactions under changing conditions. Modeling has a sign-symbolic form, associated with the use of computer technology. Computer global modeling of the prospects for the development of mankind and the "limits to growth" of technological civilization is carried out in the preparation of the reports of the Club of Rome. The validity of this method is very high.
The method of expert assessments is based on comparing constantly changing information about a system with predetermined numerical indicators. Evaluation is a way of establishing the significance of a phenomenon for the acting and cognizing subject. An expert is a highly educated specialist, a scientist who makes an assessment. The significance of a phenomenon can be theoretical, practical and axiological. It depends on the nature of the needs and demands in the activity.
The Future Scenario Method is a description of the future based on plausible assumptions. It represents a certain number of possible development options, several scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic and medium (most likely). They are developed for specific objects: technology, market, country, region. They cover a large time period, so the reliability is low.
Exercise
1. Formulate the main tasks of sustainable development of the Republic of Belarus in the context of scientific and technological progress and globalization.
2. In what form and degree do the global problems of our time manifest themselves in the Republic of Belarus? How are they taken into account in the legislation?
3. Give examples of socio-legal forecasts, forecasts in the activities of an employee of the internal affairs bodies and determine the degree of their effectiveness.
Social forecasting - is a specialized analysis of the possible chances of the formation of objects. In the role of an object, there can be processes, phenomena or states of an individual.
The purpose of social forecasting
The main goal of forecasting is to develop scientifically based options in the development of the object. In the forecasting process, the main goals are developed.
- First, the tasks of the probable development of the object are determined and motivated.
- Secondly, the means and methods for solving the problem are assigned.
Types of forecasting
Forecasting can be of various types:
- socio-economic forecasting.
- legal.
- socio-political.
- socio-cultural and sociological.
Forecasting performs various activities.
- Firstly, orienting work is based on optimizing the choice of socially significant tasks and ways to resolve them.
- Secondly, the normative function determines the trend of social needs.
- Thirdly, the preventive function defines and describes possible, negative consequences.
Forecasting uses methods like:
- analysis
- analogy
- hypothesis
- experiment
- testing and surveys.
This process is applied in various areas, for example, in the labor market. It is there that they analyze information about vacant jobs and vacant positions about the released workers.
The supposed demand for students in educational institutions of various specialties is investigated.
Forecasts provide an opportunity to assess the situation on the market and take measures influencing it.
Professional forecasting explores the labor market in three cutting-edge areas. First, a labor force assumption is made, then the demand for labor force and, as a result, the distribution of labor force.
When predicting employment often used methods such as questionnaires in the form of interviews and surveys.
family forecasting
The role of forecasting in the family and family policy is very necessary. Recently, statistics show a continuing negative trend, that is, a significant increase in divorces.
The forecast of specialists, taking into account real data, allows us to find the causes of pre-crisis conditions in the family and develop proposals for resolving conflict issues.
Psychologists are able to give advice to the conflicting parties to discuss the strife of family life and by discussing people find a way out. In many cases, mutual understanding arises and spouses often realize that family life is concessions and self-esteem to each other.
Socio-ethnic forecasting
Forecasting in socio-ethnic relations. It is perhaps a complex and delicate issue of social work.
The role of predictive research in this area is growing due to the economic crisis and social instability in countries. This work is needed where many migrants and refugees live.
Prematurely available forecast, and the work done allows you to bypass interethnic conflicts with its tragic consequences. Thanks to forecasting in the world, scientific and technological progress is advancing, conflicts are being resolved and living standards are rising.
Social Prediction Videos
INTRODUCTION
1.1. The concept of social forecasting
1.2. Methods of social forecasting
2.1. The concept of social foresight
2.2. Types of social foresight
3.1. The concept and forms of intuition
3.2. The role of intuition in social foresight
CONCLUSION
List of used literature
Introduction
Foresight, as one of the most important forms of anticipatory reflection of reality, was inherent in mankind at all stages of its existence, starting from the moment it appeared on the historical arena. However, it developed in forms that reflect prescientific experience and methods for predicting the future, and which still exist today in the form of clairvoyance, insight, divination, prophecy. It is these forms of foresight that are exploited by astrology, psychics, quackery and hysteria, based both on scientific data and on arbitrary conjectures.
Elements of the science of the future - futurology - were developed in the ancient world (for example, Thales predicted a solar eclipse in 585 BC). As knowledge was enriched, events or phenomena that would inevitably take place were predicted (and came true) more and more often.
The term futurology was proposed in 1943 by the German sociologist O. F-lechtheim as the name of a certain supra-class "philosophy of the future", which he contrasted with ideology and utopia. In the early 1960s, this term became widespread in the sense of "the history of the future", "the science of the future", designed to monopolize the predictive functions of existing scientific disciplines. Since the late 1960s, the term futurology, due to its ambiguity and uncertainty, has been supplanted by the term research into the future.
The purpose of this work is to study intuition and its role in social foresight.
The following tasks follow from the goal:
Expand the concept of social foresight;
Consider intuition and its role in social foresight;
Analyze the forms of intuition in social foresight.
The object of research is intuition. The subject of research is the role of intuition in social foresight.
Research methods include - analysis and generalization of the role of intuition in social foresight based on the study of information materials.
When writing the work, book publications were used, recommended by the Educational and Methodological Center as textbooks and teaching aids of 1997-2007 editions, which contain the main educational material. They reveal the most important theoretical and methodological issues of social forecasting and foresight, reveal the concept and meaning of intuition, as well as its role in social foresight.
CHAPTER 1. SOCIAL FORECASTING
1.1. The concept of social forecasting
Social forecasting is one of the main areas of specific social research, a special object of which is the prospects for the development of specific social processes. In a broad sense, it covers all processes associated with the life of human society (as opposed to natural, technical, biological processes of a spontaneous, “spontaneous” nature, for example, weather forecasts, crop yields, earthquakes, the course of a disease, etc.), and includes includes prospects for the development of social aspects of science and technology, economics, social relations, demographic and ethnic processes, health care and physical culture, public education, urban planning, literature and art, state and law, domestic and foreign policy of states, international relations, military affairs, further exploration of the Earth and space. Accordingly, there are scientific and technical, biomedical, socio-economic, military-political and geocosmic areas of social forecasting. In a narrow sense, the latter is usually identified with sociological forecasting - the study of the prospects for the development of social relations proper. Philosophical and methodological problems form a special direction: epistemology and the logic of scientific foresight, methodology and methodology for developing forecasts.
In modern conditions, the issues of scientific foresight in solving specific long-term problems of a scientific, technical, socio-economic, military-political nature are of particular importance.
The efficiency of forecasting social processes in economic terms is very significant. Even 40 years ago, some American firms were able to double and triple the sales of their new products (and hence their profits) only by quickly taking into account the data contained in forecasts that were developed by their own research institutions or bought from firms - “forecast traders”. Every dollar invested in developing forecasts turns into fifty dollars of net profit in a short time. At the same time, it was discovered that a well-established forecasting service can significantly reduce the time for developing various plans, programs, projects, decisions and, most importantly, can significantly increase their scientific level, and hence their effectiveness.
Among the distinctive features of social forecasting are:
The formulation of the goal is relatively general and abstract (allowing a high degree of probability);
It does not have a directive character - the forecast provides information to justify decisions and choose planning methods.
Ospecific methods: complex extrapolation, modeling, the possibility of conducting an experiment.
The object of social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.
The experience of past years and the scientific achievements of the present make it possible to carry out forecasting, i.e., scientific prediction of the prospects for the development of specific social processes with particular accuracy.
Research in the field of social forecasting is being developed in full measure. Already now, on their basis, it is possible to draw a number of conclusions about individual contours of the near future.
1.2. Methods of social forecasting
Social forecasting is the definition of development options and the choice of the most acceptable, optimal, based on resources, time and social forces that can ensure their implementation. Social forecasting is work with alternatives, a deep analysis of the degree of probability and the multivariance of possible solutions. It is connected with the prediction of the directions of development of the phenomenon in the future, by transferring to it the idea of how the phenomenon develops in the present.
Forecasting is based on three complementary sources of information about the future: extrapolation in the future of trends, patterns of development that are well known in the past and present; modeling of research objects, their presentation in a simplified form, a schematic form, convenient for obtaining predictive conclusions; predictive assessment of an expert.1
One of the first methods that became widely used in forecasting was the extrapolation method. Its essence is the construction of dynamic (statistical or logical) series of indicators of the predicted process from the earliest possible date in the past (retrospective) up to the date of establishment (prospect) of the forecast.1 With this approach, the choice of the optimal type of functions (taking into account time, conditions, etc.) d.). A great effect is the use of complex extrapolation formulas, the conclusions of probability theory, game theory, etc.
With social forecasting, the possibilities of extrapolation are limited, since social processes develop along curves that are close to a logical function. One way to test the reliability of this method may be to extrapolate growth curves "to the point of absurdity".
Expert methods are widely used in forecasting, ranging from analytical notes and meetings in order to agree on opinions and develop informed decisions to special expert assessments designed to give an objective description of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the forecasting object based on the processing and analysis of a set of individual expert opinions. The quality of an expert assessment, its reliability and validity depend to a decisive extent on the chosen methodology for collecting and processing individual expert values, which includes the following steps:
Selection of the composition of experts and assessment of their competence;
Drawing up questionnaires for interviewing experts;
Obtaining expert opinions;
Evaluation of the consistency of expert opinions;
Assessment of the reliability of the results;
Drawing up a program for processing expert opinions.
The solution of such a difficult task as forecasting new directions is necessary to determine the prospects, trends, and requires more advanced scientific and organizational methods for obtaining expert assessments.
One of them is the method of the Delphic oracle or the Delphi method. The forecasts obtained using this method are based on research and objective knowledge of the object, taking into account the objective views and opinions of the respondents regarding this future. In this case, intuition plays a big role, which can suggest the right decision, as it is based on the expert's extensive experience. An intuitive approach does not always lead to the desired results and most often the forecasts turn out to be erroneous. Basically, it is suitable for making short-term forecasts, predicting local events. But the use of this method of expert assessments in any of its variants for long-term, comprehensive and global social foresight increases the reliability of forecasts. Among the shortcomings of this method, the following are noted - the bulkiness and the need for highly qualified experts.
An important role in social forecasting is played by the Oedipus effect, i.e. the possibility of self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast, if the creative activity of people is connected to this process, during which positive warnings and threats are realized or eliminated. The conclusions obtained in the process of this forecast contribute to the awareness and understanding of the prospects for this or that event and the need to develop measures to prevent this forecast from taking place.
Forecasts have the ability to self-realization, but only if they form a single chain of needs and interests of people both at the level of social, industrial, and their personal lives. The experience of forecasting and implementing forecasts shows that their value is also associated with the ambiguity of approaches to solving social problems, with the depth of analysis of the degree of probability of possible changes.
A huge role in social forecasting is played by morphological synthesis, which involves obtaining systematic information on all possible parameters of the problem under study.1 This method assumes the complete absence of any preliminary judgment or discussion. It answers the following types of questions: what tools are needed to obtain forecast information; what is the sequence of events; how to trace the application of all means, or all methods, or all stages of solving a given problem? Particularly significant in this method is the requirement that no opportunity be missed without a preliminary exhaustive study.
Among the methods used in social forecasting, forecasting scenarios play a significant role. With their help, a logical sequence is established in order to show how, based on the real situation, the future state of the object of study, social process or phenomenon can unfold step by step. The main significance of the forecast scenario is associated with the definition of development prospects, its main line, as well as the identification of the main factors of the development background and criteria for assessing the levels of achievement of goals.
Predictive graphs are also used, which can be directed or undirected, contain or not contain cycles, be connected or unconnected, and so on. Together with the goal tree, they determine the development of the object as a whole, participate in the formulation of forecast goals, the scenario, in determining the levels and criteria for the effectiveness of forecasts.
The method of modeling (optimization of decisions) is widely used in social forecasting, which is associated with the search for development alternatives, which makes it possible to select the best option for given conditions. The task of choosing the optimal option for long-term prospective development requires determining the optimality criterion , which should reflect the efficiency of the system and have a simple mathematical expression. Among the methods for solving optimization problems, linear programming is widespread.
All mathematical models and forecasting methods are probabilistic and change depending on the length of the forecasting period. The use of models increases the efficiency of forecasting, allows you to consider a large number of possible options and choose the most appropriate one. Negative Traits modeling is the lack of accuracy and elasticity of models in forecasting, especially for a long period.
The process of social forecasting can be presented step by step as follows1:
1. choice of the object of social forecasting;
2. choice of research direction;
4. choice of a forecasting method, one of the methods or a set of methods in a certain sequence that meets the requirement of scientific research;
5. actual predictive research;
6. processing of results, analysis of the information received in relation to the research problem;
7. determination of the reliability of the forecast.
Social forecasting is based on various methods for studying the objective patterns of scientific, technological and social progress, as well as modeling options for future development in order to form, justify and optimize promising solutions.
CHAPTER 2. SOCIAL FORESIGHT
2.1. The concept of social foresight
In modern scientific literature, scientific foresight is usually divided into natural science (prospects for the development of nature as a whole or its individual phenomena) and social (prospects for the development of the individual and society).
Foresight in the scientific literature in most cases is interpreted in two senses:
a) as a prediction of certain events;
b) as preferable knowledge about events and phenomena that exist, but are not fixed in experience.
This is a contradiction when a phenomenon or event exists (or their existence is possible), but, not being reflected in experience, gives rise to pre - and unscientific forms of foresight based on the subconscious, on life observations and possible options for turning human destinies.
Special mention should be made of pseudoforesight (prophecy, divination, "revelation", divination), when its bearers try to claim such forms of advanced knowledge that are unknown to science, but which are inherent in individual individuals due to their personal characteristics of consciousness and behavior. Thus, astrology seeks to interpret experience in a peculiar way, paying attention to the fixation of recurring events in physical space (when determining the location of the luminaries). But the signs of the Zodiac, the luminaries, multiplied by the diversity of human destinies, give so many options for the development of events that the coexistence of scientific and non-scientific explanations becomes not only possible, but also successfully competing.
In every language, there have long been words denoting various shades of judgments about the future: prophecy, divination, divination, anticipation, foresight, prediction, etc. different times the meaning of each of these words had a different meaning, not always identical to the modern one. Some of them are synonyms (for example, prophecy and divination, anticipation and divination). But in most cases, each word indicates some kind of feature, has its own, specific meaning.
Thus, the word "foresight" usually denotes the most general, generic concept of judgments about the future, which includes all other varieties of such judgments. At the same time, with the help of this word, as a rule, they emphasize a certain objectivity, the validity of such judgments.
“Prediction” is, in general, of the same character, but indicates, so to speak, a higher degree of activity and at the same time concreteness of judgment, it represents, as it were, a logical conclusion from foresight: a person foresees that events will unfold in such and such a way. , and predicts that this and that should be expected.
"Prophecy" in the strict sense of the word is foresight with the help of some supernatural powers, for example, when a person announces that "God's revelation" has descended upon him. In view of the futility of this kind of "foresight", this word eventually acquired an ironic connotation, emphasizing the pretentiousness, subjectivity, groundlessness or inconsistency of one or another prediction.
On the contrary, “anticipation” usually indicates the success, reliability of foresight, and, moreover, not with the help of some supernatural forces, but with the help of the intuition of the person himself, by a correct guess, random or somehow justified.
The discussions that have been going on in recent years on the question of whether another word in this series, namely “forecasting”, has the right to exist, stemmed mostly from the purest misunderstanding: forecasting was completely wrongly attributed to the meaning of either foresight in general, or prediction and anticipation. especially. Why, indeed, another synonym, when there are already a lot of them? But the fact of the matter is that “forecast” in the modern sense of the word is not just foresight, but a special kind of it, which differs significantly from all other types (especially divination and anticipation) by a high degree of validity, scientific thoroughness, objectivity. Forecasting is not just a statement about the future, but a systematic study of the prospects for the development of a particular phenomenon or process using the means of modern science.
Prediction is always built on the basis of scientific explanation, aims to explain the phenomenon in the future. Prediction is characterized by uncertainty, because it speaks of an event as a possible state, of the emergence of a new one.
believes that foresight in the broad sense of the word is the receipt of information about some unknown, but possibly existing phenomena, regardless of their spatial and temporal localization. A similar point of view (with minor variations) is shared by A. Bauer and V. Eichhorn and others.
It is important to emphasize that foresight in all its varieties is a reflection of the future, knowledge of future development processes.
forecasting means knowledge of the future, and prediction is interpreted as obtaining information about some unknown, but possibly existing phenomena.
And they believe that a prediction is a description with a given accuracy of the state of an object at a moment in time following the moment of prediction. A prediction turns into a prediction after the time for which it was made. In other words, according to the opinion of these authors, a forecast is actually retrospective knowledge about an object, so to speak, a former prediction.
More acceptable is the point of view of those who propose to use the concept of prediction to express the qualitative level of describing the future, the concept of forecast to denote the quantitative parameters of predicted phenomena, and the concept of foresight as a generic concept for the first two.
Finally, it should be said about the ambiguity of the concept of foresight. The term foresight is used to refer to both the process of predictive research and the resulting final knowledge about the future. In concepts expressing various modifications of foresight, these two aspects can be emphasized with the help of such terms as prediction and prediction, forecast and prediction.
2.2. Types of social foresight
In the futurological literature, it is generally accepted to subdivide foresight into the prediction of the future and the prediction of existing phenomena that already take place in the present, but are not yet known.
It also highlights the prediction of "existing but unknown" phenomena, which actually turns out to be a prediction of future discoveries of the existence of these phenomena or their properties. So Mendeleev, strictly speaking, did not predict the existence of certain properties of a number of chemical elements unknown at that time (it is impossible to predict what already exists), but put forward a hypothesis about their existence, on the basis of which he predicted the possibility of discovering elements possessing these properties in the future. This foresight was to a certain extent the substantiation of the hypothesis relating to the actual reality. In the same way, geologists, based on the study of the structural features of rock massifs, the patterns of their formation, do not predict the areas of occurrence of certain minerals, but on the basis of their hypotheses about the location, they predict the possibility of discovering new deposits.
In characterizing foresight in the temporal plane as the comprehension of the future that has not yet arisen, the future that is becoming, one should single out some of its very peculiar varieties. One of these is hindsight, where predictive thinking moves from the more distant to the less distant, or from the past to the present. Here, obviously, it is legitimate to speak of foresight in the event that the subject of cognition conditionally puts himself in the situation that existed at the time of the forecast, and tries to recreate after the fact possible ways of further development in the past in accordance with the real possibilities that existed then, in accordance with those decisions and methods of action that could potentially be adopted and put into practice in those conditions. Of course, it would be a hopeless task to guess "what would happen if ..." in the sense of a detailed prediction of the possible social consequences of various decisions, actions, alternative development options in the past. However, such a retrospective foresight, reconstructing the earlier possible paths of history, is in principle possible and has a scientific, theoretical, as well as educational value.
Foresight, carried out from some point in the past to the present, the so-called post-forecast, can also be used to practically test the effectiveness modern methods forecasting by comparing the results obtained with indicators of the actual course of development. Such approbation of the methods of predictive research on the material of development in the past and its results in the present makes it possible to increase the degree of probability and reliability of predicting the future.
It is legitimate to consider as a kind of foresight the transition from information about a more distant future to information about a less distant future, as well as from the future to the present. The latter takes place in normative forecasting. Here, predictive thinking, in contrast to the traditional search for forecasts, moves as if in the opposite direction - from the future to the present. The starting point in this case are the final points of the development of the social system - the satisfaction of certain social needs and the fulfillment of possible goals. From this final future state, the normative forecast consistently, step by step, "goes" to the present, fixing possible intermediate stages and at the same time determining the range of possible goals, methods of activity, the choice and implementation of which are necessary to achieve the predicted final result that meets the criteria set on the basis of social ideals. and regulations. Although in both cases, mental operations are performed in the time interval in the direction opposite to the real development processes, we are talking about foresight, since the object of reflection is the prospects for the future course of events, future directions and results of activity.
There is scientific and non-scientific foresight. In addition, one should also distinguish between empirical prediction, which occupies, as it were, an intermediate position between scientific and non-scientific prediction.
Such foresight is unscientific, which is based on fantastic, unreal, artificially constructed relationships, often on visions, "revelations", i.e., such foresight, the only purpose of which is to manipulate human views and behavior, which has no factual basis. Dreaming, divination, astrology, and the like also belong to non-scientific foresight. This group also includes prophecies and social utopias, predictions of a utopian and religious nature.
Such a prediction is considered scientific, which is the result of a scientific theory obtained within the framework of this theory, based primarily on the foundation of a systematic scientific and theoretical analysis of the laws of social development and the conditions for their implementation.
Only foresight, based on an analysis of real conditions, can be as reliable as possible and most fully penetrate into the possible, probable and necessary trends of the future. But the hallmark of scientific foresight is not absolutely accurate and complete knowledge of the future. Such knowledge, as will be seen from what follows, is logically meaningless. Characteristic of scientific forecasting, first of all, is that it is based on the knowledge of objective laws and on an effective methodology; its results can be checked, corrected, refined and developed further; it is limited to predicting what can be predicted as necessary and probable due to its dialectical determinism, starting from the past and the present.
Empirical forecasting is called, which is based on the everyday experience of people, on the actual or imaginary relationship and regularity, which, however, is not based on a scientific theoretical basis or assessment of experience, on the study of the patterns of ongoing processes. An example is the so-called folk omens. Usually these predictions are doubtful or uncertain. But this does not exclude the possibility that they can sometimes be justified, either by chance or by virtue of an unknown reflection of actual regular relationships.
For a long time, foresight of this kind played a significant role in human life, appearing in the form of worldly rules. It existed for quite a long time in the conditions of stable and closed dwarf farms with their production and social relations. The situation is different at the present time, which is characterized by a continuous change in the productive forces, a high degree of penetration of science into all aspects of the life of society.
It should be emphasized the fundamental incompatibility of utopia and scientific foresight, which always gives a dynamic picture in which all predictable circumstances are perceived as moments of one continuous process of development, and the latter can only be understood on the basis of real conditions, contradictions, driving forces and patterns.
Utopianism, like divination, gives a frozen, motionless image of the predicted circumstances. In addition, where real interrelations and processes (from which a forecast arises) operate in scientific foresight, desires, assessments, moral requirements act in utopia, presented as independent historical forces; they take the place of regular relationships and are perceived as the latter, so that in the end the utopia is a simple extrapolation of assessments and moral views or depicts subjective desires, assessments and demands as a future reality.
Chapter 3. THE CONCEPT OF INTUITION AND ITS ROLE IN SOCIAL FORESIGHT
3.1. The concept and forms of intuition
Intuition is a specific form cognitive process. Through its various forms, the interaction of sensory and logical knowledge is carried out. The epistemological functions of intuition consist in a kind of combinatorics of available knowledge with data from cryptognoses and the subsequent transformation of the new knowledge obtained into the status of scientific. Thus, the action of intuition also extends to the level of scientific knowledge, or rather, its result - intuitive knowledge is an important component of the process of obtaining new scientific knowledge.
The epistemological analysis of the intuitive form of the cognitive process involves the elucidation of the relationship "between the knowledge available at the beginning of the intuitive act and the knowledge obtained as a result of this act, as well as the identification of the essence of the epistemological mechanism by which the transformation of the "old" (initial) knowledge into the new takes place" .
In accordance with the tasks set, the main content of the presented concept is that intuition appears in cognition as a process and as a result. The epistemological analysis of intuition as a process is reduced to the analysis of the action of its various forms in human cognitive activity. As a result, intuition appears in the form of "intuitive knowledge".
Most often, researchers refer to the classification proposed by Mario Bunge. The contradictory attitude to this classification that takes place in our literature prompts us to examine it in detail.
"When we do not know exactly which of the listed mechanisms played a role, when we do not remember the premises or are not clearly aware of the sequence of inference processes of inference, or if we have not been systematic and rigorous enough, we are inclined to say that all this was a matter of intuition. Intuition is a collection of rubbish where we dump all the intellectual mechanisms that we don’t know how to analyze them or even how to accurately name them, or those whose analysis and name do not interest us, ”writes Bunge. He considers the most commonly used meanings of the term intuition, such as quick perception, imagination, abbreviated reasoning, and sound judgment. Bunge distinguishes primarily sensual and intellectual intuitions.
Sensual intuition, according to Bunge, has the following forms:
1. Intuition as perception.
Intuition as perception is expressed in the process of rapid identification of an object, phenomenon or sign.
Clear understanding of meaning and relationship or sign.
Ability to interpret.
2. Intuition as imagination.
The faculty of representation or geometric intuition.
The ability to form metaphors: the ability to show the partial identity of features or functions, or the complete formal or structural identity of otherwise different objects.
Creative imagination.
Bunge classifies intellectual intuition (intuition as reason) as follows:
1. Intuition as reason.
Accelerated inference - a rapid transition from one statement to another, sometimes with a quick slip of individual links.
The ability to synthesize or generalized perception.
Common sense is a judgment based on ordinary knowledge and not based on special knowledge or methods, or limited to the passed stages of scientific knowledge.
2. Intuition as an assessment.
Sound judgment, phronesis (practical wisdom), insight or penetration: the ability to quickly and correctly assess the importance and significance of a problem, the plausibility of a theory, the applicability and reliability of a method, and the usefulness of an action.
Intellectual intuition as a normal way of thinking.
These, according to Bunge, are the main varieties of intuition. The author makes an attempt to systematize the most commonly used meanings of intuition among the endless hierarchy of interpretations of this concept. However, its systematization is not always consistent.
The main goal of Bunge's entire study is to reveal the enormous heuristic role of intuition as a necessary moment in the process of the scientist's cognitive activity. In this regard, his work is of known value. Thanks to this study, the main approaches to the study of the problem are outlined, providing a constructive attitude towards the latter. According to Bunge, this constructive approach includes:
Careful analysis of the numerous meanings of the term "intuition" and careful use of it.
Empirical and theoretical analysis of intuition within the framework of scientific psychology.
Refining the results of intuition through classifying, enriching and clarifying concept development8.
These three positions are really important in the development of the problem under study. But the classification of types of intuition proposed by Bunge does not fully meet these requirements.
The problem of classifying intuition is one of the most difficult points in the study of the problem as a whole. This is due to the fact that the object itself, which is subjected to the operation of classification, is not subject to the action of the rules necessary, say, for a formal classification. Any formal classification presupposes, first of all, a clear, sharp separation of the objects of one group from the objects of another group. The result of such a classification should be the establishment of some order in the arrangement of these groups themselves, although in this case the established order is often artificial and arbitrary. Classification based on formal principles implies some kind of distribution into groups, which is based on the similarity of the objects of each group due to the presence of a common property. It is quite clear that intuition is not amenable to formal classification, since we can only talk about clarifying the concept and systematizing this field of knowledge in order to facilitate orientation in it. Establishing a clear similarity and difference between the varieties of intuition does not seem appropriate.
Intuitive knowledge is an important area of human knowledge, belonging to the field of both scientific and non-scientific knowledge. In this section, we will be mainly interested in the operation of intuition as a process in scientific knowledge, so we will try to start by highlighting the specific characteristics of scientific intuition.
The most characteristic features of scientific intuition include:
The fundamental impossibility of obtaining the desired result through sensory knowledge of the surrounding world.
The fundamental impossibility of obtaining the desired result through direct logical inference.
Unaccountable confidence in the absolute truth of the result (this in no way removes the need for further logical processing and experimental verification).
Suddenness and unexpectedness of the result.
Immediate evidence of the result.
Unconsciousness of the mechanisms of the creative act, ways and methods that led the scientist from the initial formulation of the problem to the finished result.
Extraordinary lightness, incredible simplicity and speed of the path traveled from initial premises to discovery.
A pronounced feeling of self-satisfaction from the implementation of the process of intuition and deep satisfaction from the result.
So, everything that happens intuitively must be sudden, unexpected, directly obvious, unconsciously fast, unconsciously easy, outside of logic and contemplation, and at the same time in itself strictly logical and based on previous sensory experience.
The peculiarity of intuitive knowledge is that, in its epistemological essence, it is a transformative, combinatorial knowledge, the result of which is intuitive knowledge.
As a fact of knowledge, each kind of intuition is an indisputable reality that exists in the field of knowledge for all knowers. The human mind, preoccupied with comprehending questions related to cognitive activity, also tried to resolve the question of how knowledge generated by experience and possessing relative necessity and universality can follow knowledge that no longer has relative, but unconditional universality and necessity.
Intuitive cognition as direct differs from rational cognition based on the logical apparatus of definitions, syllogisms and proofs. The advantages of intuitive knowledge over rational knowledge can be represented as follows:
1) the ability to overcome the limitations of known approaches to solving a problem and go beyond the usual ideas approved by logic and common sense, to see the problem as a whole;
2) intuitive knowledge gives the cognizable object as a whole, immediately "all the infinite content of the object", allows "to grasp the greatest fullness of possibilities." At the same time, various aspects of an object are known on the basis of the whole and from the whole, while rational knowledge deals only with parts (sides) of the object and tries to put together a whole out of them, to build an infinite series of general concepts that are attached to each other, but due to the fact that that such a series is unrealizable, rational knowledge always remains incomplete;
3) intuitive knowledge has an absolute character, because it contemplates a thing in its essence, rational knowledge has a relative character, since it consists only of symbols;
4) intuition is given creative variability, the fluidity of reality, while in the general concepts of rational knowledge only immobile, general states of things are conceived;
5) intuitive knowledge is the highest manifestation of the unity of intellectual knowledge, because in the act of intuition, the mind simultaneously thinks and contemplates. Moreover, this is not only a sensory knowledge of the individual, but an intellectual contemplation of the universal and necessary connections of the subject. Therefore, as the rationalists of the 17th century believed, intuition is not just one of the types of intellectual knowledge, but its highest form, the most perfect.
Possessing all these advantages over rational knowledge, intuition, nevertheless, has vulnerabilities: it
1) the lack of manifestation of the reasons that led to the result obtained,
2) the absence of concepts that mediate the process of intuition, the absence of symbols, and
3) confirmation of the correctness of the result.
And although a direct understanding of the connections of an object or phenomenon may be sufficient to discern the truth, but not at all sufficient to convince others of this, evidence is required for this. Every intuitive guess needs verification, and such verification is most often carried out by logically deducing the consequences from it and comparing them with the available facts.
Thanks to the main mental functions(sensing, thinking, feeling and intuition), consciousness receives its orientation. The peculiarity of intuition is that it participates in perception in an unconscious way, in other words, its function is irrational. Unlike other perceptual functions, intuition may also have features similar to some of them, for example, sensation and intuition have much in common, and, in general, these are two perceptual functions that mutually compensate each other, like thinking and feeling.
Today, there are many disparate, unsystematic approaches to determining the form in which intuition manifests itself.
From the point of view of the subject of perception itself, these are subjective and objective forms - Subjective - this is the perception of unconscious mental data of subjective origin. Objective form is the subliminal perception of factual data emanating from the object, accompanied by subliminal thoughts and feelings.
The ability of a person to distinguish and identify objects of the surrounding world and their simple combinations is intuitive. The classic intuitive concept of objects is the idea of the presence of things, properties and relationships. First of all, we mean objects that are sensually perceived either in the surrounding reality or in the reality of the inner world of images, emotions, desires, etc.
Thus, the simplest form of intuition, which plays an important role in the initial stages of the creative process, is sensory contemplation, or spatial intuition. With its help, the initial geometric concepts of figures and bodies are formed. The first simple judgments of arithmetic have the same sensory-practical and intuitive character. All elementary ratios of arithmetic, such as "5 + 7 = 12", are perceived as absolutely reliable.
Conclusions are also taken as immediate evidence, something unconditionally given. Logical analysis takes into account, but never rejects, this kind of statement. This type of intuition in mathematics is called "objective" or "praxeological".
A somewhat peculiar kind of intuition is the transfer of features that have a common meaning for a certain class of objects to new objects of this class. In mathematics, it is called "empirical" intuition. Logically, empirical intuition is a hidden conclusion by analogy, and it has no more certainty than analogy in general. The conclusions obtained in this way are tested by logical analysis, on the basis of which they can be rejected.
Confidence in the results of sensory intuition was undermined after the emergence in mathematics of big number concepts and theories that contradict everyday sensual intuition. The discovery of continuous curves that have no derivatives at any point, the emergence of new, non-Euclidean geometries, the results of which at first seemed not only contrary to ordinary common sense, but also unimaginable from the point of view of intuition based on Euclidean ideas, the concept of actual infinity, conceivable according to analogies with finite sets, etc. - all this gave rise to a deep distrust of sensual intuition in mathematics.
At present, it is generally accepted that in scientific creativity the decisive role belongs to intellectual intuition, which, however, is not opposed to the analytical, logical development of new ideas, but goes hand in hand with it.
Intellectual intuition does not rely at all on sensations and perceptions, even in their idealized form.
In mathematical reasoning, primarily in elementary discursive transitions, i.e., in conclusions “from the definition”, as well as in conclusions on logical schemes of transitivity, contraposition, etc., without an explicit formulation of these schemes, there is a so-called “logical” intuition . Logical intuition (certainty) also refers to stable unrealizable elements of mathematical reasoning.
Based on the division of situations of intuitive clarity, two main types of intuition are distinguished: apodictic, the results of which are not subject to revision from the point of view of logic, and assertoric, which has a heuristic value and is subject to logical analysis.
One of the most productive forms of intellectual intuition is creative imagination, with the help of which new concepts are created and new hypotheses are formed. An intuitive hypothesis does not logically follow from the facts, it relies mainly on creative imagination.
In other words, intuition in mathematical creativity acts not only as a holistic, unifying idea, to a certain extent completing the cycle of research, but also as a guess that needs further development and verification using deductive, evidential methods of reasoning.
Concrete intuition is the perception of the factual side of things, abstract intuition is the perception of ideal connections.
The conceptual one forms new concepts on the basis of previously existing visual images, and the eidetic one builds new visual images on the basis of previously existing concepts.
3.2. The role of intuition in social foresight
The role of intuition in scientific and, in particular, mathematical knowledge has not yet been sufficiently developed. It is known that the intuitive components of cognition can be found in representatives of many professions and in various life situations. Thus, in jurisprudence, a judge is expected not only to know the "letter" of the law, but also its "spirit". He must pass sentence not only according to a predetermined amount of evidence, but also according to "internal conviction".
In philology, one cannot do without the development of a “linguistic sense”. Having cast a cursory glance at the patient, the doctor can sometimes make an accurate diagnosis, but at the same time he has difficulty explaining which symptoms he was guided by, he is not even able to realize them, and so on.
As for mathematics, here intuition helps to comprehend the relationship between the whole and parts, before any logical reasoning. Logic plays a decisive role in the analysis of the finished proof, in dividing it into separate elements and groups of such elements. The synthesis of parts into a single whole, and even individual elements into larger groups or blocks, is achieved with the help of intuition.
Attempts at machine modeling of human activity turn out to be secondary in relation to intuitive human activity, based on the synthesis of parts and the whole.
Consequently, the understanding of mathematical reasoning and proof is not limited to logical analysis, but is always supplemented by synthesis, and such synthesis, based on intellectual intuition, is by no means less significant than analysis.
The intuitive hypothesis does not follow logically from the facts, it is mainly based on the creative imagination. In addition, intuition is "the ability to see the target from afar."
The ideas of intuitionism are so widespread that they are appealed to when analyzing the views of prominent philosophers. According to Husserl's phenomenological description, the idea of succession - central to the concept of number - is an essential feature of the process of intuition.
In history, situations were not uncommon when the intellect was unable to penetrate into the essence of a process or phenomenon, and intuition came to the rescue as the “highest revelation”, as an unconscious penetration (comprehension) of the future with the help of instinct and other components of the subconscious.
The theory of intuitionism proceeded from the fact that intuition is irrational, that it is necessary to focus not so much on the mind, thinking, but on "seeing sympathy."
Further study of intuition showed that it can manifest itself, firstly, in a form based on feelings. This is quite typical for interpersonal communication both in the family and at work, when the smallest details in the relationships of people gradually form a general impression of the actions and behavior of other people, on the basis of which expectations of future events and possible changes are built.
Secondly, intuition in social foresight is based on rational thinking (“intellectual intuition”). Therefore, insight does not come just like that, but as a meaningful reality in a special way, knowledge of a huge amount of information, as, for example, it happened with the discovery of the periodic system of elements.
At the same time, it is necessary to know the limitations that accompany intuition as a method of cognition, as a form of social foresight. Intuition can acquire the strength of prejudice, delusion, if, being effective in relation to one social process, it will be unquestioningly transferred to other social processes and phenomena.
Intuition can turn into projecting if it does not rely on a significant information base. In this case, it becomes akin to charlatanism, which operates with random, little interconnected information, relies on conjecture and arbitrary interpretation of events that have come to hand.
In this regard, it is important to understand the role and significance of innate ideas, which are given to thinking initially, are not acquired from experience and cannot be changed on the basis of empirical knowledge. Usually this:
1) ready-made ideas or concepts that people operate as true;
2) ideas embedded in thinking as potential abilities and inclinations.
The main thing is that these possibilities should be realized, seen and supported, and also used in deciding the future of this or that social process or phenomenon.
It is the use of intuition (based on a large number of disparate data) that allows us to assert that in the 21st century social confrontations will shift from interracial, interethnic contradictions towards religious confrontation (and even religious wars) between the largest confessions of the world. As for the sociology of management, there is no doubt that intuition is used by almost every leader (consciously or spontaneously), including when solving not only operational, but also long-term problems of the development of his organization. And the more the leader knows the virtues and limitations of intuition, the more successfully he will apply it in social foresight.
Conclusion
Foresight is concretized in two forms: in the predictive (descriptive, or descriptive) form related to the category of foresight itself, and in the conjugated with it, related to the category of control - pre-indicative. Prediction implies a description of possible prospects, states, solutions to the problems of the future. Foretelling is connected with the actual solution of these problems, with the use of information about the future for the purposeful activity of the individual and society.
Prediction results in the forms of premonition, anticipation, foresight, forecasting. Premonition (simple anticipation) contains information about the future at the level of intuition, subconsciousness. Foresight (complex anticipation) carries information about the future based on life experience, more or less correct guesses about the future, not based on special scientific research. Finally, forecasting (which is often used in the previous meanings) should mean, with this approach, a special scientific study, the subject of which is the prospects for the development of a phenomenon.
Forecasting is not limited to trying to predict the details of the future (although in some cases this is important). The forecaster proceeds from the dialectical determination of the phenomena of the future, from the fact that necessity makes its way through chances, that a probable approach is needed to the phenomena of the future, taking into account a wide range of possible options. Only with this approach, forecasting can be effectively used to select the most probable or optimal option when justifying a goal, plan, program, project, or decision in general.
Forecasts must precede plans, contain a pre-evaluation of the consequences of fulfilling (or not fulfilling) plans, and cover everything that cannot be planned. Forecast and plan differ in the ways of operating information about the future: a probable description is a forecast, a directive decision regarding measures to achieve the possible, desirable is a plan. Forecast and plan can be developed independently of each other. But in order for a plan to be effective, it must be preceded by a forecast, as continuous as possible, allowing scientific substantiation of this and subsequent plans.
The future is sought to be foreseen, predicted, anticipated, foreseen, predicted, etc. But the future can also be planned, programmed, designed. In relation to the future, you can set goals and make decisions.
Methods of social foresight are still in search, in the process of creative development and testing by time, which, undoubtedly, gradually enriches the arsenal of this stage of social management.
List of used literature
1. Berger in sociology. humanistic perspective. M., 1996.
2. Bestuzhev - Lada in the future. – M.: Thought, 1968.
3. Bestuzhev-Lada substantiation of social innovations / -Lada. - M.: Nauka, 19s.
4. Bondarenko of social forecasting: (Tutorial-methodical manual) / ; Far East. acad. state services. - Khabarovsk, 19s.
5. Krapivensky knowledge / // Krapivensky philosophy. - M., 1996. - S. 293-351.
6. Kurbatov design: Proc. allowance for universities / , . - Rostov n / a: Phoenix, 20s.
7. Modeling of social processes: Proc. allowance. - M .: Publishing house Ros. economy acad., 19s.
8. Forecasting and planning in the market: Proc. allowance / Ed. , . - M.: UNITI-Dana, 20s.
9. Romanenko and economic forecasting: Lecture notes / . - St. Petersburg: Publishing house, 2000. - 62 p. - (Higher professional education).
10. Sorokin trends of our time / ; Per. from English. and foreword. . - M.: Institute of sociology. RAS, 19s.
11.Stegniy and methodology of social forecasting. Lecture course. Perm: PGTU, 1991.
12.Tikhomirov socio-economic forecasting /,. - M.: VZPI Publishing House: Rosvuznauka, 19s.
13. Toshchenko: General course /. - 2nd ed., add. and reworked. – M.: Yurayt-Izdat, 2004. – 527 p.
15. Yakovets of the future: the paradigm of cyclicality / . - M., 19s. - (New in forecasting: theory, methods, experience).
Bestuzhev - Lada in the future. - M.: Thought, 1968. p.
Bestuzhev - Lada in the future. - M.: Thought, 1968. - P.10.
1 Social work: Proc. - Rostov n / D, 2003. - S. 269.
1 Toshchenko: general course. - M., 2004. - S. 438.
1 Toshchenko: general course. - M., 2004. - S. 441 ..
1 Technologies of social work: Proc. - 2002. - S. 108.
Bestuzhev - Lada in the future. - M.: Thought, 1968. -S. 13 .
Stegniy and the methodology of social forecasting. Lecture course. Perm: PGTU, 1991. - S. 78
Stegniy and the methodology of social forecasting. Lecture course. Perm: PGTU, 1991. - S. 67.
Stegniy and the methodology of social forecasting. Lecture course. Perm: PGTU, 1991. -p.70.
Stegniy and the methodology of social forecasting. Lecture course. Perm: PGTU, 1991. - P.74.
Berger in sociology. humanistic perspective. M., 1996. - P.78.
Bondarenko of social forecasting: (Tutorial-methodical manual) / ; Far East. acad. state services. - Khabarovsk, 1998. - P.14.
Yakovets of the future: the paradigm of cyclicity / . - M., 1992. - P.45.
INTRODUCTION
When developing forecasts, specialists often encounter difficulties associated with the lack of certainty in the terminology of this relatively new area of scientific research.
The future is sought to be foreseen, predicted, anticipated, foreseen, predicted, etc. But the future can also be planned, programmed, designed. In relation to the future, you can set goals and make decisions. Sometimes some of these concepts are used as synonyms, sometimes a different meaning is put into each of them. This situation greatly complicates the development of prognosis and gives rise to fruitless discussions on issues of terminology.
In 1975, the Committee for Scientific and Technical Terminology of the USSR Academy of Sciences prepared a draft terminology for the general concepts of forecasting, as well as the object and apparatus of forecasting. The draft was circulated for wide discussion in organizations involved in the problems of forecasting, finalized taking into account the comments and published in 1978 in the 92nd edition of the collections of terms recommended for use in scientific and technical literature, information, educational process, standards and documentation. In this section, an attempt is made to bring into a system some of the terms (some of them are beyond the scope of the specified dictionary), which denote the initial concepts of prognostication and without which it is difficult to perceive the subsequent presentation (the dictionary is given in the Appendix).
Foresight and forecasting. It seems necessary to introduce a general concept that unites all varieties of obtaining information about the future - foresight, which is divided into scientific and non-scientific (intuitive, everyday, religious, etc.). Scientific foresight is based on knowledge of the laws governing the development of nature, society, and thought; the intuitive is based on the premonitions of a person, the ordinary is based on the so-called worldly experience, related analogies, signs, etc .; religious - on the belief in supernatural forces that predetermine the future. There are a lot of superstitions about this.
Sometimes the concept of foresight refers to information not only about the future, but also about the present, and even about the past. This happens when still unknown, unknown phenomena of the past and present are approached in order to obtain scientific knowledge about them as if they relate to the future. Examples include estimates of mineral deposits (presentist foresight), mental reconstruction of ancient sites using the tools of scientific foresight (reconstructive foresight), estimating retrospective from the present to the past or from the less distant to the more distant past (reverse foresight), estimating the retrospective from the past to present or from a more distant to a less distant past, in particular - for testing methods of foresight (simulation foresight).
Foresight affects two interconnected sets of forms of its concretization: relating to the category of foresight itself - predictive (descriptive, or descriptive) and associated with it, relating to the category of management - pre-indicative (prescriptive, or prescriptive). Prediction implies a description of possible or desirable prospects, states, solutions to the problems of the future. Foretelling is connected with the actual solution of these problems, with the use of information about the future for the purposeful activity of the individual and society. Prediction results in the forms of premonition, anticipation, foresight, forecasting. Premonition (simple anticipation) contains information about the future at the level of intuition - the subconscious. Sometimes this concept is extended to the entire area of the simplest advanced reflection as a property of any organism. Foresight (complex anticipation) carries information about the future based on life experience, more or less correct guesses about the future, not based on special scientific research. Sometimes this concept is extended to the entire area of complex advanced reflection, which is a property of the highest form of the movement of matter - thinking. Finally, forecasting (which is often used in the previous meanings) should mean, with this approach, a special scientific study, the subject of which is the prospects for the development of a phenomenon.
Preindication appears in the forms of goal-setting, planning, programming, design, and current management decisions. Goal-setting is the establishment of an ideally expected result of an activity. Planning is a projection into the future of human activity in order to achieve a predetermined goal with certain means, the transformation of information about the future into directives for purposeful activity. Programming in this series of concepts means establishing the main provisions, which are then deployed in planning, or the sequence of specific measures for the implementation of plans. Design is the creation of specific images of the future, specific details of the developed programs. Management as a whole, as it were, integrates the four listed concepts, since each of them is based on the same element - a solution. But decisions in the field of management do not necessarily have a planned, program, project character. Many of them (the so-called organizational, as well as actually managerial) are, as it were, the last step in the concretization of management.
These terms can also be defined as the processes of developing forecasts, goals, plans, programs, projects, and organizational decisions. From this point of view, a forecast is defined as a probabilistic scientifically based judgment about the prospects, possible states of a particular phenomenon in the future and (or) about alternative ways and timing of their implementation. The goal is a decision regarding the intended result of the activity being undertaken. Plan - a decision on a system of measures that provides for the order, sequence, timing and means of their implementation. A program is a decision regarding a set of measures necessary for the implementation of scientific, technical, social, socio-economic and other problems or some of their aspects. The program can be a pre-plan decision, as well as specify a certain aspect of the plan. A project is a decision regarding a specific activity, structure, etc., necessary for the implementation of one or another aspect of the program. Finally, the actual decision in this series of concepts is an ideally assumed action to achieve the goal.
Religious foresight has its own forms of concretization. So, “prediction” takes the form of “revelation”, divination (prophecy), fortune-telling, and “foretelling” takes the form of “predestination”, sorcery, spells, requests for prayer, etc. But all this (as well as forms of concretization of intuitive and everyday foresight ) is a special topic.
It is important to emphasize that prediction and prediction are closely related. Without taking this connection into account, it is impossible to understand the essence of forecasting, its actual relationship with management. The volitional principle can prevail in pre-instruction, and then the corresponding goals, plans, programs, projects, decisions in general turn out to be voluntaristic, subjectivistic, arbitrary (with an increased risk of non-optimality, failure). In this regard, it is desirable to predominate in them an objective, research principle, so that they are scientifically sound, with an increased level of expected effectiveness of decisions made.
The most important methods of scientific substantiation of predictions - description (analysis), explanation (diagnosis) and prediction (forecast) - constitute the three main functions of each scientific discipline. The forecast is not only a tool for such justification. However, its practical significance is reduced precisely to the possibility of increasing the efficiency of decisions made with its help. It is only because of this that forecasting has taken on unprecedented proportions in recent decades and has begun to play an important role in management processes.
Forecasting is not limited to trying to predict the details of the future (although in some cases this is essential). The forecaster proceeds from the dialectical determination of the phenomena of the future, from the fact that necessity makes its way through chances, that a probabilistic approach is needed to the phenomena of the future, taking into account a wide range of possible options. Only with this approach, forecasting can be effectively used to select the most probable or most desirable, optimal option when justifying a goal, plan, program, project, or decision in general.
Forecasts should precede plans, contain an assessment of the progress, consequences of the implementation (or failure to implement) plans, cover everything that cannot be planned, resolved. They can cover, in principle, any period of time. Forecast and plan differ in the way they handle information about the future. A probabilistic description of what is possible or desirable is a prediction. A directive decision regarding measures to achieve the possible, desirable is a plan. Forecast and plan can be developed independently of each other. But in order for the plan to be effective, optimal, it must be preceded by a forecast, as continuous as possible, which allows scientifically substantiating this and subsequent plans.
TYPOLOGY OF FORECASTS
Typology of forecasts can be built according to various criteria depending on the goals, objectives, objects, subjects, problems, nature, lead time, methods, organization of forecasting, etc. The problem-target criterion is fundamental: what is the forecast for? Accordingly, two types of forecasts are distinguished: exploratory (they were previously called research, exploration, trend, genetic, etc.) and normative (they were called program, target).
Search forecast- determination of possible states of the phenomenon in the future. This refers to the conditional continuation into the future of the trends in the development of the phenomenon under study in the past and present, abstracting from possible decisions, actions on the basis of which can radically change the trends, cause in some cases the self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast. This prediction answers the question: What is most likely to happen if current trends continue?
Normative forecast- definition of ways and terms of achievement of possible states of the phenomenon accepted as the purpose. This refers to predicting the achievement of desired states on the basis of predetermined norms, ideals, incentives, and goals. This prediction answers the question: what are the ways to achieve what you want?
The search forecast is built on a certain scale (field, spectrum) of possibilities, on which the degree of probability of the predicted phenomenon is then established. With normative forecasting, the same probability distribution occurs, but in the reverse order: from a given state to observed trends. Normative forecasting is in some respects very similar to normative planning, programming, or project development. But the latter imply a directive establishment of measures for the implementation of certain norms, while the former is a stochastic (probabilistic) description of possible, alternative ways to achieve these norms.
Normative forecasting not only does not exclude normative developments in the field of management, but is also their prerequisite, helping to develop recommendations for increasing the level of objectivity and, consequently, the effectiveness of decisions. This circumstance prompted to identify the specifics of forecasts serving, respectively, goal-setting, planning, programming, design, and directly the organization of management. As a result, according to the criterion of correlation with various forms of concretization of management, some experts distinguish a number of subtypes of forecasts (exploratory and normative).
Target Forecast actually desired states answers the question: what is desirable and why? In this case, on a certain scale (field, spectrum) the possibilities of a purely evaluative function are built, i.e. preference distribution functions: undesirable - less desirable - more desirable - most desirable - optimal (with a compromise on several criteria). Orientation - assistance in optimizing the goal-setting process.
Planned forecast(plan-forecast) of the progress (or non-fulfillment) of plans is essentially the development of search and regulatory forecast information for the selection of the most appropriate planning standards, tasks, directives with the identification of undesirable alternatives to be eliminated and with a thorough clarification of the direct and remote, indirect consequences of the adopted planned decisions. This prediction answers the question: how, in what direction should planning be oriented in order to more effectively achieve the set goals?
Program forecast possible ways, measures and conditions for achieving the expected desired state of the predicted phenomenon answers the question: What exactly is needed to achieve what you want? To answer this question, both search and normative predictive developments are important. The former identify the problems that need to be solved in order to implement the program, the latter determine the conditions for implementation. Program forecasting should formulate a hypothesis about the possible mutual influence of various factors, indicate the hypothetical timing and sequence of achieving intermediate goals on the way to the main one. Thus, as it were, the selection of possibilities for the development of the object of study, begun by planned forecasting, is completed.
Project forecast specific images of this or that phenomenon in the future, under the assumption of a number of conditions that are still missing, answers the question: how (specifically) is this possible, what might it look like? A combination of search and regulatory developments is also important here. Design forecasts (they are also called forecast projects, design forecasts, etc.) are designed to help select the best options for long-term design, on the basis of which real, current design should then be deployed.
Organizational forecast current decisions (in relation to the sphere of management) to achieve the intended desired state of the phenomenon, the set goals answers the question: in what direction should decisions be oriented in order to achieve the goal? Comparison of the results of search and regulatory developments should cover the entire range of organizational measures, thereby increasing the overall level of management.
According to the lead period - the period of time for which the forecast is calculated - operational (current), short-, medium-, long- and long-term (super-long-term) forecasts are distinguished. Operational, as a rule, is designed for the future, during which no significant changes in the object of study are expected - neither quantitative nor qualitative. Short-term - for the prospect of only quantitative changes, long-term - not only quantitative, but mostly qualitative. The medium-term covers the prospect between the short and long-term with a predominance of quantitative changes over qualitative ones, the long-term (super-long-term) - the prospect when such significant qualitative changes are expected that in essence we can only talk about the most general prospects for the development of nature and society.
Operational forecasts contain, as a rule, detailed-quantitative assessments, short-term - general quantitative, medium-term - quantitative-qualitative, long-term - qualitative-quantitative and long-term - general qualitative assessments.
The temporal gradation of forecasts is relative and depends on the nature and purpose of the given forecast. In some scientific and technical forecasts, the lead period, even in long-term forecasts, can be measured in days, and in geology or cosmology - in millions of years. In socio-economic forecasts, in accordance with national economic plans and in accordance with the nature and pace of development of the forecasted phenomena, the following time scale is empirically established: operational forecasts - up to one year, short-term - from one to five years, medium-term - for five to ten years, long-term - for a period of up to fifteen to twenty years, long-term - beyond long-term.
However, even here there are differences related to the characteristics of individual branches of socio-economic forecasting. Thus, in the sphere of politics, the range between the short and long term narrows to the limits of the next decade, in urban planning it stretches for a whole century (since most of the objects have already been designed for the coming decades and only operational forecasting is possible), in the economy it adapts to the ranges of national economic plans. etc.
According to the object of study, natural science, scientific-technical and social science (social in the broad sense of the term) forecasts are distinguished. In natural science forecasts, the relationship between prediction and prediction is insignificant, close to or practically equal to zero due to the impossibility of controlling the object, so here, in principle, only exploratory forecasting is possible with an orientation towards the most accurate unconditional prediction of the future state of the phenomenon. In social science forecasts, this relationship is so significant that it can give the effect of self-fulfillment or, on the contrary, self-destruction of forecasts by people's actions based on goals, plans, programs, projects, and decisions in general (including those made taking into account the forecasts made). In this regard, a combination of search and regulatory developments is necessary here, i.e. conditional predictions with a focus on improving management efficiency. Scientific and technical forecasts occupy, as it were, an intermediate position in this respect.
natural science predictions are divided into the following areas:
1) meteorological (weather, air currents and other atmospheric phenomena);
2) hydrological (sea waves, water runoff regime, floods, tsunamis, storms, freezing and opening of the water area, other hydrospheric phenomena);
3) geological (mineral deposits, earthquakes, avalanches and other lithospheric phenomena);
4) biological, including phenological and agricultural (productivity, morbidity and other phenomena in the flora and fauna, in general in the biosphere);
5) medical and biological (now mainly human diseases);
6) cosmological (the state and movement of celestial bodies, gases, radiation, all phenomena of the cosmossphere);
7) physical and chemical predictions of the phenomena of the microworld.
Scientific and technical forecasts in a narrow sense, or, as they are also called, engineering, cover the prospects for the state of materials and the mode of operation of mechanisms, machines, devices, electronic equipment, and all phenomena of the technosphere. In a broad sense - in the sense of the prospects for the development of scientific and technological progress - they cover the promising problems of the development of science, its structure, the comparative effectiveness of various areas of research, the further development of scientific personnel and institutions, as well as the promising problems of technology (the “man-machine” system), more precisely, the controlled aspects of scientific and technological progress in industry, construction, urban and agricultural, transport and communications, including the information system.
Social science forecasts divided into areas:
1) socio-medical (health care, including physical culture and sports);
2) socio-geographical (prospects for further development of the earth's surface, including the World Ocean);
3) socio-ecological (the prospect of maintaining a balance between the state of the natural environment and the life of society);
4) socio-space (the prospect of space exploration);
5) economic (prospects for the development of the national economy, economic relations in general);
6) sociological, or social in the narrow sense (perspective for the development of social relations);
7) psychological (personality, its behavior, activities);
8) demographic (growth, age and sex structure, population migration);
9) philological and ethnographic, or linguistic and ethnological (development of language, writing, personal names, national traditions, mores, customs);
10) architectural and urban planning (social aspects of settlement, development of the city and village, housing, generally inhabited environment);
11) educational and pedagogical (upbringing and training, development of personnel and institutions in the field of public education - from nurseries and kindergartens to universities and graduate schools, including subsystems for advanced training and retraining of personnel; adult self-education, parental education, additional education, etc.);
12) cultural and aesthetic (material and technical base of art, literature, all culture; artistic information, development of personnel and cultural institutions - book, magazine, newspaper business, radio and television, cinema and theater, museums and cultural parks, clubs and libraries, cultural monuments, etc.);
13) state-legal, or legal (development of the state and legislation, law and criminology, legal relations in general);
14) internal political (internal policy of one's own and another country);
15) foreign policy (foreign policy of one's own and another country, international relations in general);
16) military (military-technical, military-economic, military-political, military-strategic, military-tactical, military-organizational forecasts).
Often, scientific and technical forecasts are also called natural science forecasts, and social science forecasts are often called socio-economic forecasts, and all forecasts of this group, except economic ones, are in this case called social forecasts. Philosophical and theoretical-methodological problems of forecasting constitute a special area.
It should be noted that there is no blank wall between natural and social science predictions, since theoretically the relationship between prediction and prediction is never zero. A person begins to influence the weather (dispersion of fogs, hail clouds), productivity (production of fertilizers), etc. It is likely that in time he will learn to control the weather, regulate sea disturbances, prevent earthquakes, obtain predetermined crops, program the physiological and psychological development of man, change the orbits of celestial bodies, etc. Then the difference between these types of forecasts will gradually disappear altogether.
At the same time, it is not difficult to notice a well-known connection between forecasts of both types. This is natural, since the links between the natural, technical and social sciences are becoming ever closer. The typology of forecasts is not limited to the listed criteria and named orders for each type. In principle, there are much more criteria, and for each of them, subtypes of the third, fourth, etc. can be distinguished. order. However, the development of a "forecast type tree" is still awaiting special study.
Forecasting and forecasting. The listed subtypes of forecasts according to the criterion of the object of study represent a well-known abstraction. In practice, none of them exists in a “pure” form, since they are interconnected and form complex complexes. Usually, a forecast is developed within a certain grouping of forecasts, depending on the purpose of the study (target grouping of forecasts).
It would be difficult, for example, to give a forecast of the development of science or technology without having data from related industries (economy, demography, culture, etc.). In the same way, it is difficult to determine the prospects for the development of an economy or culture without knowing the prospects for the development of science, technology, population, urban planning, public education, and so on.
For each forecast, it is desirable to involve as much data as possible in related areas. Only a few of the most important for the purpose of the study are currently used. As experience shows, other things being equal, the degree of forecast reliability is always directly proportional to the degree of completeness of the material used in other industries, the degree of completeness of the target group.
The target group is composed of the leading (profile) and auxiliary (background) directions. In principle, according to the purpose of the study, any direction can become a leader. In practice, among the target groupings, one of the most developed is singled out - national economic forecasting, where economic and social forecasting are leading, and scientific, technical and demographic forecasting are auxiliary (other areas still play an insignificant role).
The need to form target groupings of forecasts is dictated by the requirements of forecasting practice. Not a single scientific team is able to develop forecasts of sufficiently high reliability for all branches of forecasting. The target group helps to mobilize the forces of specialists in various fields of scientific knowledge and organize them in an optimal way to develop a forecast.
The leading direction of the target group forms the forecast profile, which is the subject of the study. Auxiliary directions make up the forecast background - a set of conditions external to the object of forecasting that are essential for solving the forecast problem. Unlike profile data, background data are usually not the subject of research by one research team (since this is practically impossible and impractical): they are either obtained ready-made by order from other, sufficiently competent scientific institutions, or they are drawn from the available scientific literature, or they are conditionally postulated. with appropriate reservations regarding the degree of their reliability. The standard forecast background is divided into scientific and technical, demographic, economic, sociological, sociocultural, organizational and political, international. Usually, several subdivisions are selected depending on the purpose and objectives of developing a forecast.
The difference between the forecasting industry and the target grouping of forecasts is fundamental. Ignoring it leads to fruitless disputes, for example, on the question of whether demographic or scientific and technical forecasting is an independent branch or only a sub-branch of economic forecasting, which is sometimes considered as a synonym for national economic forecasting.
The set of target groupings of forecasts is a complex of forecasts in existing sciences, and not some new science that replaces existing ones, as this would lead to an artificial break in the study of trends and prospects for the development of natural and social phenomena studied by each science, to a break in the unity of integral basic functions each science - descriptions, explanations and predictions.
The scientific discipline about the patterns of development of forecasts - forecasting has as its subject the study of the laws and methods of forecasting. Its tasks are the development of relevant problems of epistemology and the logic of theoretical prognostic research, the scientific principles of the typology of forecasts, the classification of forecasting methods, the distinction between such interrelated concepts as hypothesis and forecast, forecast and law, analysis and forecast, forecast and plan, solution, etc. One of the most important tasks of forecasting is the development of special methodological problems of forecasting in order to increase the validity of forecasts.
In the structure of prognostics, private forecasting theories with “double subordination” should be developed: along the line of general prognostication and along the line of the corresponding scientific discipline within the framework of natural science or social science (scientific and technical, economic, sociological, political, etc. prognostication). True, prognostics is still at the initial stages of development, when it is somewhat premature to talk about the details of its “budding”. This is apparently a matter for the future. But in all cases, it is precisely the theory of forecasting that is meant and should be meant, and not the isolation of some part of the problems of existing scientific disciplines into a kind of "science about the future."
This is important to emphasize, because over the past half century there has been no shortage of speculation on the specificity of the problem of forecasting. This is especially true for the ambiguous term "futurology", which currently has the following meanings:
1) "philosophy of the future", which opposes all social teachings of the past and present, which the German philosopher of the first half of the 20th century. K. Mannheim divided into "ideology" and "utopia" (the teachings, respectively, defended or rejected the dominant social system). The term "futurology" in this sense was proposed in 1943 by a German sociologist who emigrated to the United States - O. Flechtheim. This concept did not catch on;
2) "science of the future", "history of the future", the subject of study of which should be the prospects for the development of all phenomena - primarily social ones - in contrast to other disciplines limited to studies of the past and present. The term in this sense became widespread in the West in the early 1960s in connection with the “boom of forecasts” that then unfolded (the appearance of special institutions engaged in the development of forecasts of a scientific, technical and socio-economic nature). However, in the second half of the 60s, the inconsistency of attempts to single out the “history of the future” by analogy with the “history of the past” was revealed, and by the beginning of the 70s, the term “futurology” in this sense had almost completely ceased to be used.
The analogy between the study of the past and the future turned out to be wrong. History studies past events of special historical interest with the help of special scientific tools that are different from the methods of studying observed phenomena. This makes it justified to single out the historical sciences as a separate group. Therefore, the appearance of the history of the theater, physics, agriculture, humanity as a whole is natural.
Meanwhile, the phenomena of the present and the future are of interrelated topical interest. The scientific toolkit for studying the phenomena of the future, although it has a certain specificity, is closely connected with the toolkit for studying the observed phenomena. We have already mentioned above the unity of description, explanation and prediction as the main functions of each science. So far, the predictive function in most scientific disciplines is less developed than the explanatory and descriptive. But this does not undermine the principle that the purpose of every science, if it is really a science, is to describe, explain, and predict.
That is why the "science of the future" is deprived of the subject of study, which actually belongs to many existing disciplines. The realization of this circumstance led to the discrediting of this meaning of the term "futurology";
3) a complex of social forecasting as a closely interconnected set of prognostic functions of the existing social sciences and prognostication as a science of the laws of forecasting. In this sense, futurology as "interdisciplinary research", "metascience" received significant distribution in the West by the end of the 60s. However, the vagueness of the term and the frequent confusion of this meaning with the two previous ones caused it to be replaced by other terms from the beginning of the 70s (prognostics, futurist, futuristics, "study of the future", etc.). To date, the latter term, as a synonym for the complex of social forecasting and social forecasting, is dominant in the West;
4) a synonym for the complex of social forecasting - in contrast to forecasting. In this sense, the term is rarely used;
5) a synonym for prognostics - in contrast to the complex of social forecasting. In this sense, the term is also rarely used;
6) in a narrow sense, during the second half of the 20th century, the concepts of the future society, opposing scientific communism (such as the theory of "post-industrial society", etc.);
7) in a broad sense - all modern publications (both scientific and journalistic) about the prospects for the development of human society. True, more and more often, not only modern or only non-Marxist, but more often all "literature about the future" is meant.
In the Soviet Union, the term "futurology" in its 3rd meaning (synonymous with the complex of social forecasting and forecasting) was sometimes used in journalism or in popular science literature. In the specialized scientific literature, this term was usually used only in the 6th and 7th meanings, as a rule, with the epithet "bourgeois".
Forecasting toolkit. Forecasting is based on three complementary sources of information about the future:
Assessment of the development prospects, the future state of the predicted phenomenon based on experience, most often by analogy with fairly well-known similar phenomena and processes;
Conditional continuation into the future (extrapolation) of trends, the patterns of development of which in the past and present are quite well known;
A model of the future state of a particular phenomenon, process, built in accordance with the expected or desirable changes in a number of conditions, the development prospects of which are quite well known.
Accordingly, there are three complementary ways to develop forecasts:
Questioning (interviewing, survey) - a survey of the population, experts in order to streamline, objectify subjective assessments of a predictive nature. Peer review is especially important. Polls of the population in the practice of forecasting are still relatively rarely used;
Extrapolation and interpolation (detection of an intermediate value between two known moments of the process) - construction of time series of the development of indicators of the predicted phenomenon over the periods of the basis of the forecast in the past and the prediction of the forecast in the future (retrospection and prospection of forecast developments);
Modeling - the construction of search and normative models, taking into account the probable or desired change in the predicted phenomenon for the forecast lead period, based on the available direct or indirect data on the scale and direction of changes. The most efficient predictive model is a system of equations. However, all possible types of models in the broad sense of the term matter: scenarios, simulations, graphs, matrices, collections of indicators, graphic images, etc.
The above division of forecasting methods is conditional, because in practice, as already mentioned, these methods overlap and complement each other. A predictive estimate necessarily includes elements of extrapolation and modeling. The extrapolation process is impossible without elements of evaluation and modeling. Modeling involves preliminary estimation and extrapolation. This circumstance for a long time made it difficult to adequately classify forecasting methods. The development of the latter was also hampered by the lack of certainty of the concepts of reception, procedure, method, technique, method, system, forecasting methodology, which were often used one instead of the other or figured as phenomena of the same order, despite the significant qualitative difference between them. In recent years, significant work has been carried out in this regard, which has made it possible to create a reliable theoretical basis for the classification of forecasting methods. As a result, the given series of concepts lined up in the following logical system.
Reception of forecasting - a specific form of theoretical or practical approach to developing a forecast, one or more mathematical or logical operations aimed at obtaining a specific result in the process of developing a forecast. Procedure - a number of techniques that ensure the performance of a certain set of operations. Method - a complex technique, an ordered set of simple techniques aimed at developing a forecast as a whole. Methodology - an ordered set of techniques, procedures, operations, research rules based on one or more often a specific combination of several methods. Methodology forecasting - a field of knowledge about methods, methods, systems of forecasting. Prediction Method- obtaining and processing information about the future based on homogeneous methods for developing a forecast. Forecasting system("predictive system") - an ordered set of techniques, technical means, designed to predict complex phenomena or processes. Experience shows that none of the above methods (and even more so methods), taken by itself, can not provide a significant degree of reliability, accuracy, range of the forecast. But in certain combinations they are highly effective.
The general logical sequence of the most important operations for developing a forecast is reduced to the following main stages:
1. Pre-forecast orientation (research program). Refinement of the task for the forecast: nature, scale, object, periods of foundation and lead, etc. Formulation of goals and objectives, subject, problem and working hypotheses, determination of methods, structure and organization of the study.
2. Construction of the initial (basic) model of the predicted object by the methods of system analysis. To refine the model, a survey of the population and experts is possible.
3. Collection of forecast background data by the methods mentioned above.
4. Construction of time series of indicators - the basis of the core of future predictive models by extrapolation methods, it is possible to generalize this material in the form of predictive pre-model scenarios.
5. Construction of a series of hypothetical (preliminary) exploratory models of the predicted object using the methods of exploratory analysis of profile and background indicators with specification of the minimum, maximum and most probable values.
6. Construction of a series of hypothetical normative models of the predicted object by the methods of normative analysis with specification of the values of the absolute (i.e., not limited by the forecast background) and relative (i.e., tied to this framework) optimum according to predetermined criteria in accordance with specified norms, ideals, goals.
7. Assessment of the reliability and accuracy, as well as the validity (verification) of the forecast - the refinement of hypothetical models, usually by interviewing experts.
8. Development of recommendations for decisions in the field of management based on a comparison of search and regulatory models. To clarify the recommendations, another survey of the population and experts is possible. Sometimes (albeit still rarely), a series of post-probabilistic predictive scenario models are built, taking into account the possible consequences of the implementation of the developed recommendations for their further refinement.
9. Expert discussion (examination) of the forecast and recommendations, their revision taking into account the discussion and delivery to the customer.
10. Again, a pre-forecast orientation based on a comparison of the materials of an already developed forecast with new data on the forecast background and a new cycle of research, because forecasting should be as continuous as goal-setting, planning, programming, design, generally management, the increase in the efficiency of which it is intended to serve.
What has been said requires three essential additional remarks:
Firstly, the effectiveness of forecasts (especially social science ones) cannot be reduced only to the degree of their reliability, accuracy, range, although all this is very important; it is equally important to know to what extent this or that forecast helps to increase the validity, objectivity, and effectiveness of decisions developed on its basis;
Secondly, the verification of forecasts has significant features that distinguish it from the verification of analysis or diagnosis data. In forecasting, in addition to absolute verification, i.e. empirical confirmation or denial of the correctness of the hypothesis, there is a relative (preliminary) verification, which allows you to develop scientific research and practically use its result before the possibility of absolute verification. Methods of relative verification are known: this is a verification of the results obtained, but not yet amenable to absolute verification, by control studies.
With regard to the forecast, absolute verification is possible only after the transition of the lead period from the future to the past. But long before that, it is possible and should resort to repeated or parallel studies using a different methodology (for example, to conduct a survey of experts). If the results match, there are grounds for more confidence in considering the degree of reliability of the forecast as high; if not, there is time to find and eliminate errors or shortcomings in the methodology for developing forecasts.
In this regard, it is important to clearly distinguish between the categories of validity and truth (forecast). The validity of scientific information is, in short, the level of the state of knowledge and the quality of scientific research. If new scientific information is based on solid scientific theory, the effectiveness of which in relation to similar objects of research has been proven, if this information is obtained as a result of sufficiently reliable methods, procedures, operations of scientific research (tested at other objects), then it is considered to be fully justified even before it is confirmed by practice.
The criterion of the truth of scientific information, as you know, is practice. However, practice cannot be understood only as a purely empirical experience of today. A broader understanding of practice includes, first of all, the socio-historical practice of the development of human society as a whole. Therefore, the problem of the truth of the forecast cannot be limited to the possibility of a "momentary" practical verification, it must be associated with real trends in the development of human society.
Ultimately, as it is clear from the above, any verification of the forecast is not an end in itself. If the forecast has an effect in terms of increasing the scientific level of management, it acts as a full-fledged result of scientific research long before the possibility of absolute verification. In this regard, modern science has enough proven examples in practice.
Improving the efficiency of decisions through the use of predictive information was achieved in the 1960s and 1970s, in fact, at the initial stage of the development of prognostication, when many methods had not yet been theoretically developed or practically insufficiently tested, when many methods were still actually experimental in nature. All this gives grounds for putting forward a completely scientific hypothesis that as forecasting develops and its methods improve, forecasting will have an even more effective impact on the level of goals, plans, programs, projects, organizational decisions than at present.
Thirdly, even a preliminary acquaintance with modern forecasting tools shows that the latter is by no means universal and omnipotent, that it is not able to replace the broader concept of foresight. The peculiarities of the methods for developing a forecast impose fundamental restrictions on the possibilities of forecasting both in the time range (the lead time in socio-economic forecasts in practice is limited, as a rule, to the next few decades) and in the range of research objects (not all phenomena are amenable to predictive estimates). These limitations must be constantly taken into account when specifying tasks for the development of forecasts.
