When will the asteroid Apophis hit Earth? Consequences for the Earth if the asteroid Apophis falls on it How much does apophis weigh
The meteorite Apophis, rapidly approaching the Earth, with a relatively low probability of falling on its surface, is potentially very dangerous for all life on the planet
A meteorite discovered in 2004, named Apophis (that was the name of the ancient Egyptian serpent god, the antipode of the sun god Ra), when colliding with the Earth, can cause an explosion that, by force, blocks the power of all nuclear bombs that mankind has in its arsenal. This conclusion was made by the director of the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences Boris Shustov. The probability of this meeting, which is "scheduled" for 2036, however, is so low that scientists around the world are not even in a hurry to join their efforts.
According to Shustov, if a 1-2 kilometer body collides with the Earth, it does not matter where it falls, the effect will be global. “If a body a few hundred meters in size falls, the same 300-meter Apophis, then the consequences will be of a regional scale - the impact zone of such an asteroid is the area of an average European country,” Shustov said, speaking in Roscosmos at a conference of the Tsiolkovsky Russian Academy of Cosmonautics.
According to Kirill Stikhno, an employee of the NPO named after Lavochkin, the result of the collision of the Apophis asteroid with the Earth could be an earthquake, commensurate in strength with the catastrophe in Haiti. “The consequences of falling asteroids are not limited to a funnel, many of them, when falling, cause air shock waves that sweep away everything in their path. Also, when falling, a seismic effect may occur, ”Stihno told Interfax at a scientific conference at Bauman Moscow State Technical University.
Shustov, on the other hand, claims that the damaging factors from the fall of the astroid will be similar to the consequences of a nuclear explosion, with the exception of the absence of radiation. “The Apophis asteroid carries energy, the destructive power of which in TNT equivalent exceeds the power of all nuclear arsenals on Earth,” the scientist said. That is, in the event of a sad outcome, a region the size of a European country or, say, a city with an agglomeration, such as Moscow and the region, will be erased from the face of the planet (in this regard, it is interesting to recall the etymology of the name of the meteorite, Apophis or Apop as a snake, as well as the coat of arms of Moscow with George, this snake conquering, as well as the obligations of the inhabitants of the capital of Russia to personally justify this coat of arms, standing guard over the planet). So, according to NASA, the force of the explosion can be almost two and a half times greater than the power of the eruption of the Krakatau volcano, which in 1883 almost sank the Indonesian island on which it stood. And more than ten times the strength of the explosion (or fall - depending on what exactly it was) of the Tunguska meteorite.
At the same time, the scientist consoled that the fall of the asteroid Apophis would not lead to "nuclear winter" and other global consequences, but would have consequences within the region. “We cannot yet say where the asteroid will fall. We can only talk about the probable zone of its fall,” the scientist said. He even presented a slide according to which the impact zone extends from the Urals, along the Russian border with Kazakhstan and Mongolia, through the Pacific Ocean, Central America, the Atlantic Ocean and ends off the coast of Africa.
“The degree of threat from the asteroid is small, it is not as dangerous as journalists say. The probability of Apophis falling to Earth is only one in 100,000,” Shustov said. He noted that with a greater degree of probability it is possible to predict the fall of an asteroid body to the earth in 800 years, and just something like this should be feared.
Other Russian scientists adhere to a similar opinion. The head of the Federal Space Agency, Anatoly Perminov, noted that today, when it is obvious that the threat of the fall of the asteroid Apophis, according to calculations, was not so great, the heads of the world's leading space agencies have ceased to pay due attention to this problem. “The fact is that the asteroid Apophis is not very dangerous. But it is possible to work out a system on it, the creation of appropriate spacecraft, ”added the head of Roscosmos. He said that "negotiations have already been held on this issue with the European Space Agency and the European Union." “The matter did not go further than talks,” Perminov added.
How to avoid an explosion
However, the refusal of world scientific centers to cooperate in resolving this issue - or in finding ways to prevent similar problems in the future - does not in the least interfere with the attempts of domestic scientists to figure it out on their own. There were three ways to solve this issue. “The asteroid can be affected impulsively, that is, by an explosion or impact, or gravitationally by bringing a spacecraft of a certain mass to it. With its gravitational influence, the device will pull Apophis away from the Earth, ”the already mentioned Stihno formulated two of the three methods.One of the first companies that responded to the problem was the Ukrainian State Design Bureau Yuzhnoye (Dnepropetrovsk). They proposed using a modernized launch vehicle (LV) "Zenith" to eliminate the threat of a collision of the asteroid Apophis with the Earth. As the Scientific Secretary of the Scientific and Technical Council of the State Design Bureau Nikolai Slyunyaev told Interfax in 2009, in particular, we are talking about the possibility of retrofitting the Zenith with a new third stage to minimize Apophis falling into the so-called "gravitational trap", possible during the flight an asteroid by the Earth in 2029, and almost guaranteeing the possibility of a collision on the next flyby in 2036.
“The upgraded Zenith, with its momentum, changes the trajectory of Apophis and minimizes the possibility of the tragic scenario -2036,” explained the representative of the State Design Bureau. At the same time, according to Slyunyaev, in order to be guaranteed to avoid a collision with an asteroid for the next 100 years, Zenit can be retrofitted with a third stage created on new technological principles. “Thousands of times more powerful push of the rocket system changes the course of the asteroid so that the probability of a collision in the next 100 years becomes zero,” he said.
As the interlocutor of the agency clarified, the plane in which Apophis moves, according to experts, is inclined to the equator by 3 degrees. “In this case, it is beneficial to carry out launches from a sea cosmodrome near the equator, from where Zenit has been launched since 1999,” Slyunyaev said. However, Slyunyaev also counted on the help of the United States, Russia and the EU to implement the project.
But this measure is not very popular, in particular, because there is a ban on bringing nuclear weapons into space. So said Andrei Finkelstein, director of the Institute of Applied Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences. True, according to him, “there is a very definite probability: if its trajectory passes through the “gate” about 1.5 km in size, then in 2036 it will definitely “fuck” at us.” Speaking about possible means of fighting the asteroid and how humanity can prevent a catastrophe, the scientist stressed that there are no ready-made means yet. However, he proposed something called a "gravity tractor".
Another method has been proposed and is being developed by the Keldysh Research Center. Its director and part-time president of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics Anatoly Koroteev suggested using the already known laws of physics to change the asteroid's flight path. Thus, a long flight of a spacecraft near Apophis can prevent its collision with the Earth. “If the spacecraft flies near Apophis, then not only the asteroid will exert its influence on the device, but also the device on it. And although the masses are incommensurable and the impact on the asteroid will be small, if you fly near it for a long time, then it can be diverted from the dangerous trajectory of rendezvous with the Earth, ”Koroteev told Interfax. Thus, the expert noted, in order to remove a potentially dangerous object from the Earth, it would not be necessary to act on it by force.
At the same time, Finkelstein encouraged the people of the country by saying that Roskosmos, together with the Ministry of Defense and the Russian Academy of Sciences, is starting to develop an “anti-asteroid” program, in particular, among the nearest plans is the installation of a locator on a 70-meter telescope in Ussuriysk to receive signals reflected by space bodies. “The Tunguska meteorite showed that the possibility of a collision between the Earth and astronomical bodies is not a fantasy of scientists, it is a reality,” he said. At the same time, the scientist did not mention that just the fact of the fall of the Tunguska meteorite - like its nature, its identification as a meteorite body itself - is still being questioned, and scientists around the world have not come to a consensus about what exactly happened in 1908 year.
Meanwhile, the Lavochkin NPO is developing a spacecraft to study Apophis According to the director of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician Lev Zeleny, in 2029 the asteroid's trajectory will pass quite close to the Earth, and it is a sin not to use it for research purposes. In order to prevent a collision, further study of the asteroid is necessary. NPO named after Lavochkin is developing an apparatus. By the way, the press secretary of the Main Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences in St. Petersburg, Sergei Smirnov, claims that the first approach to the Earth will occur in 2012, and therefore, perhaps, it is necessary to hurry up with the studies of the cosmic body.
The threat is worse
Shustov does not tire of intimidating citizens, and in his speech at the Roskosmos at a meeting of the conference of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics named after Tsiolkovsky, he said that a thousand asteroids ranging in size from 100 meters to several kilometers potentially threaten the Earth. “About 7 thousand objects approaching the Earth were found, of which 1000-1200 are potentially dangerous. Of these, about 150 bodies are from 1 km in size, and about a thousand bodies are from 100 m to 1 km,” Shustov specified.According to him, almost all kilometer bodies have been discovered and are constantly observed as part of NASA's Space Guard program. He explained that after the collision of the Earth with a 10-kilometer cosmic body, “all life on the planet can die, and civilization for sure.” But asteroids of this size fall to Earth once every tens of millions of years.
“Within the limits of the existence of human civilization or human life, small bodies from 100 meters are more dangerous. Their danger is explained simply: they often fall. We need to make an inventory of them, monitor them, and prepare for the consequences of a collision with such bodies,” said the head of the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
On the other hand, it was the fall of the asteroid that allowed the emergence of human civilization, Shustov said. “You know the most popular hypothesis about the extinction of dinosaurs, which says that a body measuring 10 km hit the Yucatan Peninsula and led to the extinction of 80% of all life on the planet. At that time, mammals occupied a subordinate position to dinosaurs, but dinosaurs, being cold-blooded, could not withstand the consequences of the collision, and mammals, including humans, entered a promising evolutionary branch. Here you can say thank you to the asteroid, ”the scientist said.
The probability of a collision of the asteroid Apophis with the Earth in 2036 is almost zero.
This opinion was expressed today at the 7th International Aerospace Congress by Viktor Shor, a leading employee of the Institute of Astronomy at the Russian Academy of Sciences, ITAR-TASS reports.
"In our opinion, non-gravitational acceleration, the Yarkovsky effect, was not taken into account when calculating the orbit (of the asteroid)," Viktor Shor explained. "This effect can greatly change the motion of Apophis." According to the conclusion of Russian scientists, "the collision of the Earth with Apophis in 2036 has a vanishingly low probability" when the influence of the "Yarkovsky effect" is taken into account.
The "Yarkovsky effect", in particular, manifests itself in a change in the orbit of a body rotating around its axis under the influence of solar radiation, which leads to a rapid evolution of the orbit of cosmic bodies by astronomical standards.
Discovered in 2004, the asteroid Apophis, whose size, according to various estimates, ranges from 200 to 400 meters, has long been feared by scientists because of the proximity of its passage near the Earth. According to scientists, on April 13, 2029, Apophis will approach the Earth at a dangerous distance of 38 thousand kilometers and may even be visible to the naked eye. However, the probability of a collision of Apophis with our planet was predicted in 2036, and not in 2029. "Under the influence of the Earth's gravity, the orbit of Apophis will change," the expert explained. "The danger is that its orbit is not known accurately enough to calculate the further movement of the asteroid after approaching the Earth."
"If an asteroid in 2029 passes through the so-called keyhole - a zone only 600 meters wide, then in 2036 it will most likely collide with the Earth. If not, it will fly by, and the danger will pass us," - director of the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, member Corresponding RAS Boris Shustov.
It is not possible to predict with accuracy the collision of an asteroid with the Earth. Observations from the Earth and from space do not allow us to calculate the exact orbit and give a correct forecast 20 years ahead.
Currently, scientists from the Russian Institute of Astronomy, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the USA and the University of Pisa are working to refine the orbit of Apophis. As a representative of the Institute of Astronomy noted, the international scientific community disagrees in assessing the orbit of a dangerous cosmic body.
But even if Apophis does not collide with Earth in 2036, this danger may reappear in 2051, 2058, 2066, 2074 and 2089. Scientists estimate that a possible fall of an asteroid will cause huge destruction over an area of thousands of square kilometers. The force of the impact will surpass the explosion of the atomic bomb in Hiroshima. In the event of a fall into the seas or large lakes, it will not do without numerous tsunamis. And all the settlements located in the vicinity of the fall of the cosmic body can be completely destroyed.
To prevent the possible fall of Apophis and other asteroids, various action scenarios are being developed.
"Science already offers many options. For example, the deviation of the asteroid's orbit due to impact with a special spacecraft or with the help of a space minesweeper, a solar sail. It is also proposed to destroy the asteroid with a nuclear explosion. All these methods are still far from real engineering study, and they all work when the orbit of the asteroid is well known. Therefore, in my opinion, now the main task is the "usual" task - to observe asteroids, calculate their orbits and estimate the probability of a collision. Only after that you need to think about how to move the asteroid away from the Earth, "said in one of the correspondent member RAS Andrey Finkelstein.
> Asteroid Apophis
Apophis is an asteroid approaching Earth: description and characterization with photo, detection, name, forecasts for an asteroid impact with the planet, NASA research.
The asteroid Apophis was discovered by the Kitt Peak Observatory in Arizona in 2004 and was named 2004 MN4. In 2015, on June 19, he acquired his own name - Apophis, under which he received world fame. The likelihood of a collision in 2029, after the asteroid passed Earth in January 2013, has been refuted by NASA officials working in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and they also give an extremely low probability of a similar catastrophe in 2036.
History of the origin of the name of the asteroid Apophis
The asteroid got its name in honor of the ancient Greek destroyer creature, the huge serpent Apophis. According to legend, he lived in the underworld, in absolute darkness and, as a result, could not stand sunlight. Therefore, during the night transition, he made constant attempts to destroy it. This choice of scientists for the name of the asteroid is not accidental - small planets traditionally receive the names of gods from Greek, Roman or Egyptian mythology. R. Tucket and D. Tolen, the explorers of the cosmic depths who were the first to discover the asteroid, chose a name for it by analogy with the negative character of the Stargate SG-1 series Apophis, in turn, borrowed from the mythology of ancient Egypt. Apophis will approach the Earth in 2029, which will lead to another change in its orbital classification.
Orbit and close encounters of Apophis
According to the classification, the asteroid is in the group of atons. Its rendezvous with the earth's orbit occurs at a point that roughly corresponds to April 13th. The latest data predict the approach of Apophis to the Earth in 2029 at a distance of 36,830 km from the center of the Earth (according to another version, 38,400 km).
The radar observations made ruled out the possibility of a collision in 2029, but due to the inability to obtain accurate initial data, there was a possibility of a catastrophe in 2036 and subsequent years. According to the results of various researchers, the mathematical probability is in the range of 2.2 10−5 and 2.5 10−5. The highest probability in 2039, in subsequent years it is much lower. In 2004, the danger on the Turin scale was rated 4, which was at that time a Guinness record, but already in August 2006 the forecast was reduced to 0.
Thanks to positional observations of the asteroid published in October 2009, from the two-meter telescopes at the Mauna Kea and Kitt Peak observatories for the period from June 2004 to January 2008, a recalculation was made, which made it possible to reduce the likelihood of contact with the Earth. If earlier the probability was equal to 1:45,000, then after recalculation, it dropped to 1:250,000.
After the asteroid approached the Earth on January 9, 2013 at a minimum distance of 14 million 460 thousand km (slightly less than 1/10 of the distance to the Sun), scientists specified the weight and volume of Apophis. It is estimated that it is about 75% larger than previously announced. In 2013, there will be no collision of an asteroid with the Earth, NASA scientists have determined.
Characteristics of the asteroid Apophis
The Herschel space observatory has published new data on the asteroid Apophis. According to previous estimates, its diameter was estimated at 270 ± 60 meters. New data: 325 ± 15 meters. An increase in diameter by 20% increases the volume by 70% of the mass of a celestial body (assuming homogeneity). Light falling on the surface of an asteroid is reflected by 23%.
Possible consequences of the failed collision of Apophis
NASA's initial estimate was that an asteroid impact would have generated an explosion of 1,480 Mt of TNT, which was reduced to 880 and then to 506 Mt after sizing. To estimate the size of a possible catastrophe, compare:
- Tunguska meteorite - 10-40 Mt.
- Volcano Krakatau (1883) - 200 Mt.
- "Tsar bomb" (explosion on October 30, 1961 at the Dry Nose nuclear test site) - 57 Mt.
- "Kid" over Hiroshima (blown up by the Americans over Hiroshima in 1945, August 6) - 13-18Mt.
The destructive effect of the impact explosion depended on the angle and location of the impact, as well as the density and composition of the asteroid. The destruction would have been huge, would have captured an area of more than 1000 square meters. km without causing global long-term changes. True, the effect of "asteroid winter" would not have been.
Model, hypothetical collision of the asteroid Apophis and the Earth (diameter 270 m, density 3000 kg/m3, re-entry velocity 12.6 km/s):
- The height of destruction is 49.5 km.
- Released energy - 1717 Mt.
- The diameter of the formed crater is 5.97 km.
- Earthquake 6.5 Richter.
- Wind speed - 792 m/s.
As a result, both fortified and non-fortified buildings, metro tunnels would collapse, cracks would form in the ground, etc. would be a devastating tsunami. At a distance of 300 km from the epicenter of the collision of the asteroid with the Earth, all settlements would be destroyed, completely wiped off the face of the earth. After clarifying the data, due to the larger volume and weight of the celestial body, the expected destruction would be even greater.
Spacecraft observations of the asteroid Apophis
Scientists have proposed, for a more accurate assessment of the trajectory, mass and composition of the asteroid, to send an AMS (automatic interplanetary station) to it, to install a radio beacon there, which makes it possible to calculate the correlation of its coordinates in time, and also to more accurately determine the composition and density of the asteroid matter. This will allow for a more accurate calculation of the orbital elements, gravitational perturbations of the orbit from the influence of other planets, and eventually an updated forecast of a collision with the Earth will be obtained.
Planetary Society (Planetary Society) USA in 2008, a competition was announced for the best project to create a small AMS to send to Apophis. It was attended by 37 initiative teams representing 20 countries of the world.
A visit to Apophis is considered as one of the objectives of the AMS Don Quixote project of ESA Europe. A similar goal is pursued by the Apophis-P apparatus from the IKI RAS and Roscosmos. It was also planned to create "Apophis-soil" to return the soil of the asteroid.
Elimination of the possible threat of the asteroid Apophis
Perhaps the most exotic option proposed by the international scientific community is to wrap Apophis in a highly reflective film. This should have caused the asteroid's orbit to change under the pressure of sunlight.
Roscosmos proposed to develop its own project to prevent a collision with the asteroid Apophis. According to Anatoly Perminov, it can be determined that the management was counting on the creation of a spacecraft to remove the asteroid from a dangerous orbit. At the same time, it was not planned to use nuclear weapons. As he said: no explosions. It was supposed to involve international institutions and organizations in cooperation. As the leader put it, we are talking about the lives of billions of people, so saving is not allowed here. It was supposed to spend more than half a billion dollars on the project. After the revised forecasts, which reject the possibility of a catastrophe, the project, most likely, will not receive development.
NASA statement about the asteroid Apophis
NASA announced the almost complete elimination of the possibility of a collision in 2036 of Apophis with the Earth. This conclusion is based on observations of the asteroid on January 9, 2013, when it passed from the Earth at a distance of 14.46 million km.
According to Don Yeomans, the head of the laboratory's division for the study of objects flying towards the Earth, the probability of a collision is now less than 1/1,000,000, which makes it possible to exclude a catastrophe in 2036. Earlier, in 2029, this probability was about 2.7%.
Also, thanks to these conclusions, fears were gone that due to the rapprochement in 2029 with the Earth, the asteroid's orbit will change to a more critical one in 2036.
The exact time of a possible Apocalypse is already known to the second. Friday, April 13, 2029 at 4.36 am GMT. Containing the energy of 65 thousand atomic bombs, the asteroid Apophis with a mass of 50 million tons and a diameter of 320 meters will cross the orbit of the Moon and rush towards the Earth at a speed of 45 thousand kilometers per hour.
Russian astronomers have calculated the date of a possible collision of the asteroid Apophis with the Earth, but they consider the probability of this to be negligible ( but it is there, and who canceled the silence of the truth so that there was no panic ), said Leonid Sokolov, professor at the Department of Celestial Mechanics at St. Petersburg State University, speaking at the Royal Academic Readings on astronautics.
"April 13 ( and it's Friday ) 2029 Apophis will approach the Earth at a distance of 37-38 thousand kilometers. Its possible impact with the Earth may occur on April 13, 2036," Sokolov said. According to him, other scientists, in particular employees of the Institute of Applied Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believe that the probability of Apophis impacting the Earth in 2036 is negligible.
According to the calculations of the American space agency NASA, which Sokolov cited in the report, 11 collisions with the Earth are possible in the 21st century, 4 of which should occur before 2050 ( and this applies to us ).
"After the close approach of Apophis to the Earth in 2036, it is possible for it to move to various resonant orbits, including rendezvous orbits (with the Earth), but it does not mean that the asteroid will collide with the Earth in 2036, it can disperse into particles, and their collision with the Earth can happen in the coming years," Sokolov noted.
"Our task is to consider various alternatives, develop scenarios and appropriate actions depending on the results of future observations of Apophis," Sokolov added.
Apophis - one of the most dangerous asteroids, was discovered by scientists in June 2004. The diameter of the asteroid is 270 meters. If it even falls into the ocean, the funnel will be 8 km in diameter and 2-3 km deep. A wave 20 meters high will hit America.
With the help of updated information, NASA scientists have recalculated the orbit of motion for the asteroid Apophis. The newly calculated trajectory significantly reduces the likelihood of a dangerous collision with the Earth in 2036. The new data points to the probability of a meeting of the Earth on April 13, 2036 with the asteroid Apophis, but the probability of a collision has decreased from 1:45,000 to approximately 1:4,000,000.
Initially, the chances of Apophis approaching and colliding with the Earth were estimated at 2.7% in 2029. However, the record distance at which the asteroid Apophis will approach the Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029 is expected to be about 25,000 km.
According to preliminary estimates, after the impact of the asteroid Apophis on the Earth's surface, a 200-megaton explosion will occur, which can give rise to a global tsunami with waves of almost 12 meters in height, which will sweep away everything in its path at a distance of up to 50 kilometers inland.
Friday, April 13, 2029 This day threatens to be fatal for the entire planet Earth. At 4:36 GMT, the asteroid Apophis 99942 with a mass of 50 million tons and a diameter of 320 m will cross the orbit of the Moon and rush towards the Earth at a speed of 45,000 km/h. A huge, pockmarked block will harbor the energy of 65,000 Hiroshima bombs - this is more than enough to wipe out a small country from the face of the Earth or shake a tsunami a couple of hundred meters high.
The name of this asteroid speaks for itself - that was the name of the ancient Egyptian god of darkness and destruction, but there is still a chance that he will not be able to fulfill his fateful destiny. Scientists are 99.7% sure that a boulder will fly past the Earth at a distance of 30-33 thousand kilometers. In astronomical terms, this is something like a flea jump, no more than a flight from New York to Melbourne and back, and much smaller than the diameters of the orbits of many geostationary communications satellites. After dusk, the population of Europe, Africa and Western Asia will be able to observe a celestial object similar to a medium-sized star for a couple of hours, crossing the region of the sky where the constellation Cancer is located. Apophis will be the first asteroid in the history of mankind that we will be able to clearly see with the naked eye. And then it will disappear - it will simply melt into the black expanses of space.
Maybe it will pass. But scientists have calculated: if Apophis is exactly 30,404.5 km from our planet, he should fall into the gravitational "keyhole". A strip of space about 1 km wide, a hole comparable in size to the diameter of the asteroid itself, is a trap where the Earth's gravity is able to turn the flight of Apophis in a dangerous direction, so that our planet will literally be in the crosshairs of the sight at the time of the next visit of this asteroid, which will take place exactly in 7 years - April 13, 2036.
The results of radar and optical tracking of Apophis, when it once again flew past our planet last summer, made it possible to calculate the probability of it falling into the "keyhole". In numerical terms, this chance is 1:45,000! "It's not an easy task to realistically assess a hazard with a very low probability of an event," says Michael de Kay of the Clearinghouse and Hazard Assessment Center at Carnegie Mellon University. “Some believe that since the danger is unlikely, then it’s not worth even thinking about it, while others, bearing in mind the seriousness of a possible catastrophe, believe that even the smallest probability of such an event is unacceptable.”
Former astronaut Rusty Schweikart has a lot to say about objects flying in outer space - once, having climbed out of his ship during the Apollo 9 flight in 1969, he himself was such an object. In 2001, Schweikart co-founded the B612 Foundation and is now using it to put pressure on NASA to do something about Apophis as soon as possible. “If we miss the opportunity that has been given to us,” he says, “it will be criminal negligence.”
Let's say that in 2029 the situation will not be the best. Then, if we do not want the asteroid to crash into the Earth in 2036, we must deal with it on approach and try to move it to the side by tens of thousands of kilometers. Forget about the great technological advances we see in Hollywood movies - in fact, this task far exceeds the current capabilities of mankind. Take, for example, the ingenious method proposed in the famous "Armageddon", which was released on screens in 1998 - to drill a hole a quarter of a kilometer deep in an asteroid and detonate a nuclear charge right inside. So - technically, this is no easier to implement than time travel. In a real situation, when April 13, 2029 approaches, we will only have to calculate the place where the meteorite fell and begin the evacuation of the population from the doomed region.
According to preliminary estimates, the site of the fall of Apophis falls on a 50 km wide strip that runs through Russia, the Pacific Ocean, Central America and goes further into the Atlantic. The cities of Managua (Nicaragua), San José (Costa Rica) and Caracas (Venezuela) are located exactly on this strip, so they are in danger of a direct hit and total destruction. However, the most likely place of impact is a point in the ocean several thousand kilometers from the western coast of America. If Apophis falls into the ocean, a funnel 2.7 km deep and about 8 km in diameter will form in this place, from which tsunami waves will run in all directions. As a result, say, the coast of Florida will be hit by twenty-meter waves, which will bombard the mainland for an hour.
However, it is still too early to think about evacuation. After 2029, we will no longer be able to avoid a collision, but long before the fateful moment we can slightly knock Apophis off course - just enough so that he does not fall into the "keyhole". According to NASA calculations, a simple “blank” weighing one ton, the so-called kinetic impactor, which should hit the asteroid at a speed of 8000 km / h, will fit for this. A similar mission has already been performed by NASA's Deep Impact space probe (by the way, its name is associated with another 1998 Hollywood blockbuster). In 2005, at the behest of its creators, this apparatus crashed into the nucleus of the Tempel 1 comet, and thus information was obtained about the structure of the surface of this cosmic body. Another solution is also possible, when a spacecraft with an ion propulsor, playing the role of a "gravitational tractor", will hover over Apophis, and its - albeit negligible - force of gravity will slightly shift the asteroid from the fatal course.
In 2005, Schweickart urged NASA officials to plan a rescue mission to install a radio transmitter on Apophis. The data regularly obtained from this instrument would confirm the forecasts of the development of the situation. With a favorable forecast (if the asteroid flies past the “keyhole” in 2029), earthly inhabitants could breathe a sigh of relief. In the event of a disappointing forecast, we would have had enough time to prepare and send an expedition into space that would be able to ward off the danger that threatens the Earth. According to Schweikart, such a project could take about 12 years to complete, but it is desirable to complete all rescue work by 2026 - only then can we hope that the remaining three years will be enough to show positive results from the impact of our planet, barely noticeable on a cosmic scale. rescue ship.
However, NASA still prefers waiting tactics. According to the calculations of Stephen Chesley, who works in Pasadena (California) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) on the topic "Near Earth Object" (Near Earth Project), until 2013 we have every right to not worry about anything. By that time, Apophis will fall into the field of view of the 300-meter radio telescope located in Arecibo (Puerto Rico). According to these data, it will already be possible to make a reliable forecast - whether an asteroid will fall into the “keyhole” in 2029 or it will be carried past. If the worst fears are confirmed, we will have enough time for the expedition with the installation of the transceiver, and for emergency measures to push the asteroid from a dangerous trajectory. “It's too early to fuss,” says Chesley, “but if by 2014 the situation does not resolve itself, then we will start preparing serious expeditions.”
In 1998, the US Congress instructed NASA to search for, record and track all asteroids with a diameter of at least 1 km in near-Earth space. The resulting "Space Security Report" contains a description of 75% of the 1100 alleged objects in existence. (In the course of these searches, Apophis, which did not reach the required size of 750 m, caught the eye of the researchers simply by a lucky chance.) None of the giants included in the "report", fortunately, poses a danger to the Earth. "But in the remaining couple of hundred that we haven't been able to detect yet, anyone could be on approach to our planet," says former astronaut Tom Jones, a NASA asteroid search consultant. In light of the current situation, the aerospace agency intends to expand the search criterion to a diameter of 140 m, that is, to capture in its network and celestial bodies half the size of Apophis, which can nevertheless cause significant damage to our planet. More than 4,000 such asteroids have already been identified, and according to preliminary NASA estimates, there should be at least 100,000 of them.
As the procedure for calculating the 323-day orbit of Apophis showed, predicting the paths along which asteroids move is a troublesome business. Our asteroid was discovered in June 2004 by astronomers at the Kitt Peak Arizona National Observatory. A lot of useful information was obtained by amateur astronomers, and after six months, repeated professional observations and more accurate sighting of the object led to such results that JPL sounded the alarm. JPL's holy of holies, the Sentry asteroid tracking system (a super-powerful computer that calculates the orbits of near-Earth asteroids based on astronomical observations) made predictions that looked more ominous day by day. Already on December 27, 2004, the calculated chances of an expected collision in 2029 reached the level of 2.7% - such figures caused a stir in the narrow world of asteroid hunters. Apophis took an unprecedented 4th step on the Turin scale.
However, the panic quickly subsided. The results of those observations that had previously eluded the attention of researchers were entered into the computer, and the system announced a reassuring message: in 2029, Apophis will fly past the Earth, but will miss by the slightest. Everything would be fine, but one unpleasant little thing remained - that very “keyhole”. The tiny size of this gravitational "trap" (only 600 m in diameter) is both a plus and a minus. On the one hand, it will not be so difficult to push Apophis away from such an insignificant goal. If we believe the calculations, then by changing the speed of the asteroid by only 16 cm per hour, that is, by 3.8 m per day, in three years we will shift its orbit by several kilometers. It seems to be nonsense, but quite enough to bypass the keyhole. Such influences are quite within the power of the already described "gravitational tractor" or "kinetic blank". On the other hand, when we are dealing with such a tiny target, it is impossible to accurately predict in which direction Apophis will deviate from the keyhole. Today, predictions of what the orbit will be like by 2029 have an accuracy scale (in space ballistics it is called the "ellipse of errors") of about 3000 km. As new data accumulates, this ellipse should gradually decrease. In order to say with any certainty that Apophis is flying past, it is necessary to reduce the "ellipse" to a size of about 1 km. Lacking the necessary information, the rescue expedition may take the asteroid to the side, or may unintentionally drive it into the well itself.
But is it realistic to achieve the required forecasting accuracy? This task involves not only the installation of a transceiver on the asteroid, but also a mathematical model that is incomparably more complex than the one currently used. The new orbit calculation algorithm should also include seemingly insignificant factors such as solar radiation, terms added to account for relativistic effects, and gravitational influence from other nearby asteroids. In the current model, all these corrections have not yet been taken into account.
And finally, when calculating this orbit, another surprise awaits us - the Yarkovsky effect. This is an additional small but steadily acting force - its manifestation is observed in those cases when an asteroid radiates more heat from one side than from the other. As the asteroid turns away from the Sun, it begins to radiate the heat accumulated in the surface layers into the surrounding space. There is a weak, but still noticeable reactive force acting in the opposite direction to the heat flow. For example, twice as large an asteroid called 6489 Golevka under the influence of this force over the past 15 years has moved away from the calculated orbit by 16 km. No one knows how this effect will affect the trajectory of Apophis over the next 23 years. At the moment, we have no idea either about the speed of its rotation, or about the direction of the axis around which it could rotate. We do not even know its outlines - and yet this information is absolutely necessary in order to calculate the Yarkovsky effect.
If the apophys is really aiming straight for the gravitational "keyhole", ground-based observations will not be able to confirm this until at least 2021. It may be too late to take any action by then. Let's see what is at stake (Chesley believes that the fall of such an asteroid should entail losses of $ 400 billion only due to damage to the economic infrastructure), and it will immediately become clear that some steps to protect against an impending catastrophe need to be taken now, without waiting for confirmation that they will eventually be needed. When will we start? Or, if you look from the other side, at what point can you rely on luck and say that the trouble has passed? When are the chances of a successful outcome ten to one? Thousand to one?
When NASA discovers a potentially hazardous asteroid like Apophis, it is not empowered to make decisions about how to proceed. "Rescue planning is not our business," says Chesley. The space agency's first and very timid step in this direction was a kind of working meeting at which possible measures for protection against asteroids were discussed in June 2006.
If these NASA efforts deserve attention, approval, and, most importantly, funding from the US Congress, then the next step will immediately be sending a reconnaissance expedition to Apophis. Schweikart notes that even if the planned "gravity tractor" equipped with a control transceiver is "covered in gold from nose to tail", its launch is unlikely to cost more than a quarter of a billion. By the way, the release of space fantasy "Armageddon" and "Collision with the abyss" cost the same amount. If, in the name of protecting our planet, Hollywood was not stingy to lay out such money, then is it really not possible for the US Congress to find it? (Author: David Noland)
In general, somewhere in China, giant ships are definitely already being built and tickets are already on sale
The famous asteroid Apophis, which has been talked about a lot over the past decade, will come very close to Earth in 2029, and in 2068 it may even fall on our planet, provoking terrible destruction. These calculations were carried out by employees of the Department of Celestial Mechanics of St. Petersburg State University.
The report states that in April 2029 a huge rocky block will pass by the Blue Planet at a distance of 38 thousand kilometers. And the distance between the Earth and the Moon, for comparison, is 384 thousand kilometers, that is, ten times more.
“This approach causes a significant scattering of possible trajectories, among them there are trajectories containing the approach in 2051. The corresponding resonant returns contain many (about a hundred) possible collisions of Apophis with the Earth today, the most dangerous - in 2068, "experts say.
Until, perhaps, the fateful day of 2068, Apophis will approach us three more times: in 2044 it will fly up to the Earth at 16 million kilometers, after seven years the distance will turn out to be more dangerous - 760 thousand kilometers, and in 2069 the distance between objects will stop at 6 million kilometers.
It is worth saying that NASA experts once said that there is a possibility of Apophis falling to Earth in 2068.
About the asteroid
Apophis was discovered in 2004 by the Kitt Peak Observatory. The diameter of this celestial body is about 325 meters. Initially, astronomers calculated that there was a fairly high chance that an asteroid would fall to Earth in 2029, but after additional research, they changed their mind. On April 13, in the appointed year, it will approach our planet at a dangerous distance, but still there will be no collision.
Later, experts said that after approaching the Earth in 2029, Apophis may slightly change the orbit of its movement, and the next time it will fall on us. But there is one condition: the asteroid must fly through a kind of "keyhole", which is a narrow region of outer space. A few years ago, astronomers believed that the passage of Apophis through such a “hole” would lead to disaster in 2036. A little later, it was found that the probability of this event is only one in a million.
Consequences of the fall of Apophis to Earth
NASA experts have calculated that the explosion yield from the fall of the asteroid will be 506 Mt, although the original figure was much higher. For example, the energy release during the fall of the legendary Tunguska meteorite in 1908 is estimated at only 10-40 megatons, and the explosion power of the deadliest Soviet thermonuclear bomb in the history of mankind, the Tsar Bomba, was 58 megatons. As you can see, the indicators of Apophis are much more serious.
The consequences largely depend on the composition of the space object, the place and angle of its fall. One way or another, an area of thousands of square kilometers will be practically destroyed, but there is no need to talk about a global catastrophe. If Apophis falls into the sea or a large lake, a giant tsunami will follow, which will wipe everything off the face of the earth in the territory of nearby settlements, there will be many victims. When falling on land, a crater with a diameter of about 6 kilometers is formed.
