Regional features of the demographic situation in the world. Regional features of the Russian demographic situation. Modern demographic policy in Russia and foreign experience

If we adhere to the position that a multiple increase in the Earth's population is not expected, then from the available basic quantitative forecasts (UN, Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the World Bank), we can use data from the United Nations Fund for Population Research (UNFPA).

The United Nations publishes reports presented by Dr. Nafiz Sadiq, Executive Director of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Particularly interesting is the report “World Population. 1990”, containing the main reporting indicators of social development for countries of the world in the mid or late 80s. and a number of demographic indicators, calculated mainly for 1990. The main thing is the simultaneous comparability of data for different countries, which, according to the official statistics of these countries, would not be easy to achieve, if not impossible. It also uses the responses of the governments of states and territories to questions posed to them in advance, plus calculations by UNFPA specialists on the world, its regions and countries. In this regard, the material is unique in accuracy (although it will always remain approximate due to the dissimilarity of statistical approaches, the state of accounting and other factors characterizing different countries). Moreover, it gives a picture of upcoming changes in the economy and population of the world and its main regions in the period up to 2000 and 2025, and defines a development strategy for the 90s. The analysis for previous years mainly covers a 20-year period. Thus, we are talking about a broad retrospective.

Forecast for 2025 - 8.5 billion people.

If we take this latest forecast period, then only 147 million people - less than 5% of world population growth - will be in economically developed countries, most of which are in the northern hemisphere of the Earth. This will happen not due to an increase in the birth rate, but as a result of a decrease in mortality and an increase in life expectancy (from 73 to 79 years). As for the birth rate, each woman in economically developed countries now has 1.9 children over the entire reproductive period, and in Western Europe - 1.58. Only immigration protects countries such as Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Austria from depopulation. In Eastern Europe, birth rates have reached their lowest levels in history.

If in 1950 economically developed countries accounted for 32.7% of population growth, then in 2025 it will account for only 15.8%. Asia will continue to be in first place (1950 - 52.9; 2025 - 57), in second - Africa, whose share increases from 8.6 to 18.4%, in third - Latin America and the Caribbean pool (6.4 and 8.8%).

At least 95% of world population growth in 1990-2025. will fall on developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. This is more than thirty years ago, when in 1965-1970. Natural population growth in developing countries has reached its peak.

Regional differentiation in population growth is increasingly intensifying. While the population of Latin America is increasing on average by 2.1% per year, the population of Uruguay is growing by less than 1%, the Caribbean by 1.45%, Central America by 2.3%, and Paraguay by 3% and more. It can be assumed that the total population of these countries will increase from 448 million people in 1990 to 760 million in 2025.

A similar picture can be observed in Asia. If in East Asia the annual rate of natural increase is less than 1.3%, then in Southeast Asia it is 1.9%, and in South Asia it is 2.3% and continues to grow. The population of South Asia today is already approximately equal to the population of East Asia and slightly exceeds 1200 million people. West Asia's population, growing at 2.7% annually, has the fastest growth rate after Africa.

Africa is facing truly rapid population growth. It was in the 90s that the continent achieved a record population growth of 3% per year - the highest in the entire history of the region. Every year the population of Africa increases by 10 million people, which already gives rise to many problems today. The situation will become even more difficult in 10 years, when annual growth jumps to 15 million people and the total population of the region is projected to increase from 648 million in 1990 to 1,581 million in 2025.

In 1950, the population of Europe and North America accounted for 32.1% of the world population. In 2025, their share will drop to 15.8%. In contrast, Africa's population will be almost 20% in 2025.

India will approach the population size of China, which is pursuing a harsh policy of “one family, one child,” and by 2050, according to the results of the latest censuses and sociological research, it will become the most populous country in the world. If by then there will be an average of three children per Indian family, as now, the population will be 2.16 billion people. This is fraught not only with serious social cataclysms, but can also cause irreparable damage to the natural environment.

Meanwhile, the experience of China shows that it is possible to control the processes of population growth. In recent years, the Chinese government has managed to limit population growth through tough measures, and experts believe that by the middle of the next century there will be 1.4 billion people there. India could have the same figure if its authorities managed to implement the principle: “one family, two children.”

Looking even further back to the end of the 21st century, many countries will face very serious difficulties if projected population growth rates continue. Thus, the population of Nigeria may reach 500 million people - the same number living in all of Africa in 1982.

conclusions

The greatest changes in population growth rates occurred in the countries of the collapsed USSR and Eastern Europe.

In some (developed) countries, the essence of population policy is to encourage the birth rate; in other developing countries, on the contrary, there are restrictions on the birth rate, designed to slow down the rapid growth of the population.

According to the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, the UN and the World Bank, the world population will stabilize by 2100, with the World Bank's materials being the most accurate.

Test questions and assignments

I task. ("Yes or no").

Demographic forecasting in a broad sense refers to the prediction of the future development of the population, that is, the prediction of the population as a whole.

II task. (Choose the correct answer). The medium-term forecast is calculated:

a) for 5 years;

b) for 10-15-20 years;

c) for 30-50 years;

d) for 100-200-300-400 years. (Correct answer: for 10-15-20 years).

III task. (Complete the sentences).

Depending on the approach to the purpose, forecasts are distinguished: realistic, ..., ....

IV task. (Fill in the missing words).

In the field of fertility in China, the policy is applied... (“one family - one child”, “one family - not a single child”, “one family - five children”).

Bibliography

Boyarsky A.Ya. Demography course. M., “Statistics”. 1967, 1974,1985.

Demographic forecasts / Ed. A.G. Volkova M.: Statistics. 1973.

Urlanis B.Ts. Problems of population dynamics in the USSR. M.: Science. 1974.

Chorea B.S. Problems of cities M.: Mysl. 1971. First edition. Paragraph “Urban labor resources”.

Problems of regional demographic forecasting in the system of national economic planning / Sat. scientific works. Scientific editors B.S. Khorev, D.H. Karimov, D.I. Ponomarenko. Dushanbe, 1979.

Population of Russia / Ed. A.T. Khrushchev. M., 1997. Population. Encyclopedic Dictionary. M., 1994.

Conclusion

Having mastered the textbook material, the reader will be able to obtain fairly accurate information about the detailed system of demographic knowledge. The textbook summarizes the main directions of demographic theory, methodology, history, policy, and forecast. I would like to draw attention to the trends in the development of demographic processes in Russia and the resulting fundamentals of demographic policy, as well as to the trends and forecast of changes in the world population.

In 2001, the Government of the Russian Federation developed a concept for the country's demographic development, and the future development of Russia's population will largely be determined by the progress of its implementation.

In turn, modern demographic processes have a negative impact on economic and social development, exacerbating the already complex relationships between generations, the problem of pensions and social security of the population, the formation of the country’s defense potential, etc.

Taking all this into account, it is necessary to take urgent measures to prevent further negative development of the demographic situation in the country. In the Russian Federation, special socio-demographic legislation should be developed, the main principle of which is to take into account the interests of not only the state and the nation as a whole, but also of each individual person.

Every literate person should not only know the problems and trends in the economic development of the population of his region, but also imagine the problems of the population of Russia against a global background, which is also one of the main objectives of this textbook. Having mastered this knowledge, readers will be able to more constructively solve the problems that arise before them.

The team of authors has created a demography course that does not repeat previous programs, but takes into account the modern situation, is distinguished by an integrated approach, and in-depth study of the constituent material. At the same time, the authors hope that this course will be discussed and subjected to objective examination, which will allow it to be improved and improved in subsequent editions. So, we hope for productive cooperation.

Terms

Anamnestic examination- variety of retrospective observation of demographic processes, in which information is collected by interviewing people about the past.

Assimilation of ethnic groups- the loss of peoples’ native language and national identity as a result of long-term communication with other ethnic groups, that is, a kind of dissolution of ethnic groups in a multinational environment.

Refugees- persons forced to leave their place of residence (to leave, to flee, to flee) due to various threatening circumstances and who arrived on the territory of another state without being its citizens.

Irreversible migrations- this is an understanding of migration in the narrow sense (as relocation), in contrast to the idea of migration as any spatial movement of the population, which meets two main conditions: firstly, the population moves from one locality to another, and secondly, the movement is accompanied by a change of permanent residence , and in recent years, citizenship.

Marriage.- A form of relationship between a man and a woman, sanctioned and regulated by the state, the Church, and society as a whole.

Marriage.- The process of formation of married couples in the population.

Marriage age.- The age at which law or custom allows marriage (in Russia for both sexes - 18 years).

"Marriage Market". System of ratios of the numbers of various groups of the marriageable population.

Gross birth rate - serves as a summary characteristic of fertility, shows the number of girls that an average woman will give birth to before the end of her fertile age, while maintaining the current level of fertility at each age throughout her life.

"Baby Boom"- a significant increase in the birth rate, observed, in particular, after the Second World War (1946-1964) in the USA, Canada and a number of other countries, due to a compensatory increase in births postponed during wartime.

"Baby Slump"- the period following the “baby boom” and characterized by a rapid decline in the birth rate to a record low level, which, for example, was observed in the 60s in the USA, Canada and some other countries.

Great Migration- the name of the era of mass migrations of Hunnic, Germanic, Slavic, Alanian and other tribes, mainly in the 4th-7th centuries, which played a large role in the formation of early medieval states and the formation of nationalities, the ancestors of modern European peoples.

Population reproduction- constant renewal of generations of people as a result of the interaction of fertility and mortality.

Forced migrations- a set of territorial movements associated with a permanent or temporary change in the place of residence of people for reasons beyond their control, usually against their wishes (natural disasters, environmental disasters, military actions, violations of fundamental rights and freedoms of citizens).

Internally displaced persons- citizens of the Russian Federation who are forced (or intending) to leave their place of permanent residence in the territory of another state or in the territory of Russia as a result of violence committed against them or members of their families or persecution in other forms, or a real danger of being persecuted due to circumstances, significantly infringing on human rights.

Civil marriage- a marriage formalized by government authorities without the participation of the church. Sometimes civil marriage refers to actual marriage.

Population movement- changes in quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the population. There are three types of population movement: natural, migration and social.

Demographics- a term introduced in Western demography, defines a section of demography devoted to the study of demographic factors of business.

Population policy- purposeful formation of the desired (optimal) type of population reproduction in the long term or consolidation of the existing type, if it is optimal, by implementing a set of interrelated measures.

Demographic statistics- a set of statistical methods used in the analysis of demographic processes.

Demographic coefficients - the ratio of the number of events that occurred in a population to the average population size that produced these events in the corresponding period.

Population explosion- a significant increase in the world population, its rapid growth, due to the persistence of a relatively high birth rate and a sharp decrease in mortality. And, as a consequence, high rates of population growth, observed, for example, since the late 50s in developing countries (2.5-3.5% per year).

Demographic factor- a term used in the scientific literature to denote the dependence of the pace and proportions of social development or its individual economic parameters on the size, growth rate, age-sex structure and family composition of the population, its distribution, and the intensity of individual demographic processes. The demographic factor is a systemic concept that characterizes the population in the unity of its constituent processes and structures, which act as separate demographic factors of social (economic) development.

Demographic forecasting in the broad sense of the word means scientific prediction of the future development of the population, i.e. forecasting both the population as a whole and changes in certain particular characteristics of population movement (estimates for the future, fertility, migration, etc.). The relationship with social characteristics such as migration makes this prediction a socio-demographic forecast.

Demography- the science of the laws of population reproduction in the socio-historical conditionality of this process.

Depopulation- one of the forms of manifestation of the demographic crisis; a systematic decrease in the absolute population of a country or region as a result of narrowed population reproduction, when subsequent generations are numerically smaller than previous ones.

Deportation of peoples- in the USSR in the second half of 1930-40. large-scale forced relocation of entire peoples, as well as representatives of a number of nationalities, from their original native places or territories of their compact residence, mainly to Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Siberia.

The household- a socio-economic unit that unites people through relationships that arise when organizing their common life: maintaining a common household, living together, etc. Unlike a family, relationships of kinship or property between members of the same household are not necessary; a household can include residents, pensioners, servants, etc., and also consist of one person living independently.

One-time population registration- one-time collection of information, mainly about the number of people living in a particular locality or area during a certain period of time.

Natural fertility- fertility not limited by contraceptive measures and induced abortions.

Natural population movement- a generalized name for the totality of births and deaths that change the population size in the so-called natural way.

Natural population growth- the absolute value of the difference between the number of births and deaths over a certain period of time.

Ideal number of children- an individual’s idea of the best number of children in a family in general, without taking into account the specific life situation and personal preferences.

Immigration- entry (settlement) into the country for permanent or temporary (usually long-term) residence of citizens of another country, mostly with the acquisition of new citizenship.

Human Development Index - includes indicators such as average life expectancy, adult literacy rate and real GDP per capita. Developed within the framework of the UN Development Program in 1990 as a tool for assessing the effectiveness of socio-economic programs and determining the priorities of socio-demographic policy.

Sources of population data- printed publications containing numerical information about the population and demographic processes.

Birth calendar- distribution of births over time during the childbearing period or the period of marriage.

Population categories- in accordance with certain registration rules, residents of any locality are distinguished permanent population, actual population, legal population.

Cohort- a set of people who experienced a certain demographic event during the same period of time (for example, a group of people who got married during a calendar year, etc.).

Consolidation of ethnic groups- the merging of several related ethnic communities into one based on the intertwining of their national traits.

Marital fertility rate - the ratio of the number of births in marriage to the number of married women aged 15-49 years for a certain period (year).

Marriage rate(or crude marriage rate). The ratio of the number of all registered marriages for a certain period to the average population for this period.

Dependency ratio - different ratios of the number of enlarged age groups: children (0-14 years), elderly and old (60 years and older), able-bodied (conditionally 15-59 years).

Natural population growth rate - the ratio of natural population growth to the average population over a certain period of time or the difference between the birth rate and death rate. It can be positive, negative or zero. Usually expressed in ppm (%o).

Vitality factor- number of births per 100 deaths.

A measure of the mortality rate of children under one year of age. The infant mortality rate is significantly higher than the mortality rate in the following age groups. This indicator is considered one of the most accurate overall indicators of the level of health care and socio-economic development of a country.

Infant mortality rate - ratio of the number of children who died under 1 year of age (t 0) in a given period (year) to the number of live births in a given (N 0) and past (N 1 ) periods (years) taken with certain weights. For example:

Divorce rate- the ratio of the number of divorces for a given period to the average population for the same period. Depends on the age and marriage structure of the population.

Fertility rate- the ratio of the number of live births to the corresponding population size. It is classified into general, special (by gender) and specific (age) coefficients.

Death rate (or crude death rate)- the ratio of the number of deaths during a certain period (calendar year) to the average population for this period (in % 0).

Pendulum migrations- regular movements of the population from one locality to another to work or study and back.

International migrations

International statistical congresses- the first form of international cooperation in the field of quantitative study of mass social phenomena (1853-1876).

Micro census- microcension, a sample survey of the population, representative of the entire country. Typically, a section of a territory is selected and everyone living in that territory is interviewed, so that all population groups are represented in the sample.

Peoples and ethnic groups- groups of people united by the historically established unity of language, territory, economic life, culture, and national identity.

Illegal migration- external, interstate migration of the population, territorial movements of the population across state borders.

Net population reproduction rate - generalizing characteristics of the population reproduction regime. Shows how many girls born to one woman in her lifetime, on average, will survive to the age of their mother at their birth, given the birth and death rates.

Population survey-demographic survey, collection of information about part of the inhabitants of the territory to study their composition, social and demographic processes or public opinion.

General population movement rates(birth rate, mortality rate, marriage rate, divorce rate) - the ratio of the corresponding number of births, deaths, registered marriages and divorces during a calendar year to the average annual population. Used to assess current changes in the development of the population as a whole.

Life expectancy at birth - a term recently used instead of the term "average life expectancy at birth". The number of years that, on average, a representative of a generation will live from the exact age to death, while maintaining the existing levels of age-specific mortality.

Population census- the main source of information about the population - the process of collecting demographic, economic and social data characterizing at a certain point in time each resident of a country or territory.

Family planning- intrafamily regulation of childbirth.

Fertility- a woman’s biological ability to conceive and give birth to live children. Fecundity is studied as one of the factors of fertility and reproductive behavior.

Population density- the degree of population of a particular territory, the number of permanent population per unit area (usually 1 sq. km).

Generation- a set of people born in the same period who are at any time equal or almost equal in age.

Termination of marriage. Dissolution of a marriage due to the death of one of the spouses or divorce.

ppm(%o) is a unit of measurement of demographic processes. It means the number of certain demographic events (births, deaths, marriages, etc.) per 1000 population.

Simple population reproduction- renewal of the population on an unchanged scale.

Divorceability. The process of disintegration of married couples in a generation due to dissolution of marriage (divorce).

Population distribution- a concept denoting the result of the spatial distribution of the population and the formation of a network of settlements over a certain period of time. It is conveyed through the concepts of “physical population density”, “social population density”, etc.

Divorce. Divorce, termination of marriage during the life of the spouses.

Expanded population reproduction- repopulation on an ever-increasing scale.

Races- groups of people united by a common origin and similarity of external physical characteristics (skin color, hair type, facial features, skull shape, body length, etc.), formed under the influence of territorial climate and other environmental conditions.

Regional demographic forecasting - the most complex aspect of general demographic forecasting, where it is necessary not only to analyze a block of populations, but also migrations (often by variants).

Reproductive behavior- a system of actions and relationships that mediate the birth or refusal to have a child within or outside of marriage.

Reproductive age- the age of a woman at which she is capable of childbearing, usually from 15 to 49 years.

Fertility- the process of childbirth in a set of people making up a generation or in a set of generations.

Labor market- the sphere of demand and supply of hired labor; an integral part of a market economy along with the market for goods, services, capital, securities, etc.

Balance of migration- the difference between the number of departures and the number of arrivals for any period with a “+” or “-” sign (net migration, net migration).

Seasonal migrations- temporary migration, one of the main types of population migration, which is characterized by temporary (seasonal) territorial movement of migrants. Seasonal migrations can be intrastate and interstate, economic and socio-cultural. In pre-revolutionary Russia - otkhodnichestvo.

Family- based on marriage or consanguinity, an association of people connected by a common life and mutual responsibility.

Update rate- the sum of the total fertility and mortality rates.

Mortality- the process of extinction of a generation, consisting of many single deaths occurring at different ages.

Special fertility rate - ratio of the number of births to the average annual number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years), in %O.

Average age- an approximate general characteristic of the age structure of the population. Calculated as the arithmetic mean of the ages of all people in a given population or generation. Determined by dividing the total number of person-years at the time of observation by the number of those people at that age.

Population structure- various forms of describing the distribution of the population by age, gender, nationality and other demographic characteristics, as well as by territorial units of observation and description.

Narrowed population reproduction- repopulation on an ever-decreasing scale.

Total fertility rate- the average number of births per woman over her entire life, maintaining existing birth rates at each age, regardless of mortality and changes in the age composition. It is obtained as the sum of age-specific fertility rates.

Fertility table- a numerical model of fertility in a real or hypothetical cohort, giving a complete picture of the fertility process, regardless of the existing demographic structures. General fertility tables are constructed without taking into account birth order, while special fertility tables are constructed taking into account birth order.

Mortality tables (life tables)- a numerical mortality model, which is a system of interconnected, age-ordered series of numbers that describe the process of extinction of a certain theoretical generation with a fixed initial number (usually 100,000). Historically, the first and one of the most common among demographic tables. The first indicator of mortality tables is age X, its last (eighth) indicator is life expectancy.

Job turnover- the process of creating and eliminating jobs, the size of which clearly reflects the dynamics of development and structural changes in the labor market and its adjustments.

Current population registration- maintaining lists of residents of a specific territory, intended to estimate the current population size based on collecting information about all events that change it: cases of birth, death, marriage and divorce, changes in place of residence as these events occur.

Sustainable development- simple or expanded reproduction of three factors of economic growth, or three types of capital: labor resources (human capital), physical capital created by human labor, and natural resources (recently increasingly limiting economic development).

"Brain drain"- emigration of scientific, technical and other highly qualified specialists for permanent (usually with a change of citizenship) or temporary (long-term under work contracts) residence.

Actual marriage. Marital relations not formalized in accordance with the procedure established by law.

Migration factors- a set of objective and subjective reasons influencing the decision to migrate.

Human development- a concept that characterizes the expansion of a person’s freedom of choice, the improvement of his capabilities and abilities. Its main dimensions - longevity, education, standard of living - correspond to three key problems - living a long life, acquiring knowledge, and having access to the resources necessary for a decent standard of living.

Economic age pyramid- a method for assessing the cumulative economic effect of changes in the age structure (in general for the entire population and by gender) using the age pyramid and age-specific intensities of economic phenomena (labor productivity, income, consumption).

Economically active population- the sum of those working and willing to work, that is, those registered at the labor exchange as unemployed.

Emigration- relocation (voluntary or forced, spontaneous or organized) to another country for permanent or temporary (long-term) residence, in most cases with a change of citizenship.

Endogenous causes of death- a conditionally distinguished group of causes of death caused by diseases associated primarily with internal processes in the human body itself (diseases of the circulatory system, etc.).

Episodic migrations- these are business, tourist, recreational, etc. trips that are not of a regular temporary nature.

Introduction........................................................ ........................................................ ....... 4

Chapter 1 Theoretical foundations of demography................................. 6

1. Relevance of studying population problems.................................... 6

2. Subject and method of demography................................................. ....................... 12

3. System of demographic sciences.................................................... ............... 17

Chapter II Interrelation of socio-economic and demographic processes.................................................. ............... 23

1. Reproduction of the population at different stages of social development. 23

2. Demographic factors of socio-economic development... 35

Chapter III Sources of population data.................................... 51

1. Population census................................................... ................................... 52

2. Current accounting of population movements.................................................... ............ 59

3. Other sources of population data.................................................... ...... 61

Chapter IV Distribution and structure of the population.................................... 65

1. The concept of population dynamics and distribution.................................................. 65

2. Basic concepts of a formalized description of population distribution 67

3. Age and sex structure of the population.................................... 75

4. Ethnic structure of the population.................................................... .............. 77

Chapter V. System of demographic coefficients... 84

1. The concept of demographic coefficients.................................................... 84

2. Intensity coefficients of demographic processes............ 85

3. Indicators of growth and population growth.................................... 90

4. Structural coefficients.................................................... ........................... 91

5. The influence of some factors on the value of population reproduction rates.................................................... ........................................................ ............ 92

Chapter VI Fertility......................................................... ........................... 98

1. Sources of data and degree of their reliability.................................................... 98

2. Fertility rates.................................................... .................... 98

3. Reasons for the decline in fertility.................................................. ............ 112

Chapter VII Mortality and life expectancy.... 119

1. Mortality factors and causes of death.................................................... .... 119

2. Historical types of mortality.................................................. ............... 122

3. Evolution of life expectancy.................................................... ..... 128

4. Features of mortality in Russia................................................... .......... 133

Chapter VIII Marriage and family................................................... ........................ 144

1. Marriage................................................... ............................................... 144

2. History of the development of the family structure. Family functions................... 147

3. Socio-economic situation of the family in Russia.................................. 153

4. Family policy................................................... ................................... 154

Chapter IX Divorces................................................................................... 158

1. Divorce.................................................................... .................................... 158

2. Reasons for divorce.................................................... .................................... 163

3. The current state of divorce in Russia.................................... 168

Chapter X Population migration.................................................... ........ 174

1. History of population migration.................................................. ............... 174

2. Territorial distribution of the population.................................................... 177

3. Types and factors of migration................................................... ........................... 180

4. Regional aspect of migration.................................................... ............... 184

5. International migration................................................... ....................... 185

6. Migration and labor markets in modern Russia.................................... 187

Chapter XI Modern trends in the development of demographic processes in Russia.................................................... ................................... 193

1. Main trends in the development of the population of Russia.................................... 193

2. Demographic consequences of wars and other emergency situations 199

3. Features of modern trends in the reproduction of the population of Russia.................................................... ........................................................ ........................... 203

Chapter XII Reproduction and composition of the world population 211

Introduction

1. Fertility as a determining factor in the modern demographic situation

2. Increasing the birth rate: how to enhance the effect of government measures

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

The relevance of research. Low birth rate in our country is far from a new problem. And its reasons are only to a small extent related to the difficulties of the socio-economic development of our country in recent years. The birth rate in Russia has been declining for more than 100 years. In the first half of the 20th century. In parallel with the birth rate, the mortality rate also decreased, so the reduction in the number of children in Russian families remained unnoticeable for a long time. But in the second half of the century, the decline in mortality slowed and the problem of small children began to manifest itself more and more clearly.

The relationship between the number of children in a family and the standard of living is very complex. It may seem like a paradox, but the better people live, the fewer children they want to have on average. This correlation has been manifested for a long time and universally in all countries of the world, regardless of social system, geographical location, race, nationality and other things. It was noted by the English economist Adam Smith and Karl Marx.

In general, the decline in the birth rate in Russia is in line with the general decline in the birth rate in all industrialized and urbanized countries, and, as a rule, Russia was ahead of most of them in this decline and is now among the industrialized countries with the lowest number of children per family.

Thus, target our research - the birth rate in Russia.

Based on the goal, determined tasks:

Describe fertility as a determining factor in the modern demographic situation;

Identify effective government measures to increase the birth rate.

The work uses various scientific and educational literature on fertility issues. Various publications in periodicals and on Internet sites are also of interest.

1. Fertility as a determining factor in the modern demographic situation

The main determining factor in the modern demographic situation is the birth rate, which has fallen in our country to the lowest level in the world. The total fertility rate (the number of children born on average to one woman of a conventional generation in her entire life) was only 1,230 children in 1997, while only for simple reproduction, i.e., one in which the population does not grow, but also does not decrease, it requires the birth of an average of 2.1 children per woman over a lifetime, regardless of marital status, and 2.6 children per marriage.

At the same time, some part of marriages always remains childless throughout life, and some is limited to the birth of only one child. To compensate for having one child, which has already become widespread among Russian families, especially in large cities, a significant proportion of marriages with three or more children is required. According to calculations by experts published in 1987, the distribution of families in society by the number of children born, corresponding to the critical value of the birth rate of 2.6 children per marriage, is as follows: 4% of families are childless, 10% have given birth to only one child, 35% - two children, three children - also 35%, 14% - four and 2% - five or more. It follows that just to maintain simple reproduction of the population, it is necessary that families with three or more children make up more than half of the total number of families. If society recognizes the desirability of Russian population growth over the foreseeable future, then the proportion of families with three or more children should naturally be greater. Therefore, the target for our family and demographic policy should be a family with 3 - 4 children. Meanwhile, according to statistics, in particular according to the 5% All-Russian Population Census of 1994, only 12.5% of young women surveyed between the ages of 18 and 30 named three or more children as their desired number.

Research on fertility factors in our country and in many other countries throughout the 20th century. showed that the number of children does not depend on random circumstances, but is largely the result of people making conscious decisions, the implementation of their life plans, under the influence of social norms and economic conditions, which, however, do not act automatically, but are refracted through human will, choice, through psychology and culture of people. Research shows that reproductive desires and plans (or otherwise, reproductive attitudes) are formed at an early age and are very stable throughout people's lives. The main indicators of people’s reproductive attitudes are two: the average desired and the average expected (planned) number of children.

The 1994 All-Russian microcensus showed that on average married women would like to have (under the most favorable conditions) 2.03 children, but in reality they are going to give birth to 1.90. These figures alone characterize the severity of the demographic situation in Russia. The insignificant difference between the average number of children desired and planned in marriage, only 0.13 children, indicates that even in today’s truly difficult life circumstances, the majority of Russian families have as many children as they want. Consequently, the problem of mass Russian small families is not at all in the realities of our lives today, as some of our politicians believe, but in reducing the very need of most families to have children.

The main reasons for mass childlessness lie in historical changes in the role of the family in society and the functions of children in the family. In past agrarian societies, the family was the production unit, and relationships between family members were largely determined by production factors. Children were important to their parents as workers, helpers on the farm, his heirs, and warrior-defenders of the farm. A large number of children contributed to the well-being of the family and the growth of the authority of parents in the community. The family also played an important mediating role between its members and society.

In 2002, the birth rate in Russia ensured population reproduction by only 62%, but Russia was no exception to the general rule. The birth rate was not sufficient for simple population reproduction in any of the industrialized countries, with the exception of the United States; in 15 European countries the net population reproduction rate was even lower than in Russia (Fig. 1).

Picture 1. Net population replacement rate in 40 industrialized countries in 2002

birth rate demographic social program

The extremely low birth rate in Russia is associated with the widespread spread of one-child families and, accordingly, with a very high proportion of first-born children in the total number of births.

In 2003, second births in Russia accounted for 31% of all births. Their share was lower than in Russia only in Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Romania and France.

At the opposite pole were countries such as Germany, Greece, the Czech Republic and Switzerland - over 37%.

Figure 2. Share of second births in the total number of births in 32 industrialized countries in 1960-2003, %

The situation with third births in Russia is the same as with second births: the lowest rate in the world in the 1970s and one of the lowest at the beginning of the 21st century. In 2003, the share of third births in Russia was less than 8%; lower rates were only in Ukraine, Belarus and Bulgaria. At the same time, in Ireland - 17.2%, in the USA - 16.8%. (Fig. 3).

The share of fourth and subsequent children in Russia accounts for less than 4% of births; this share is lower only in Belarus, Spain and Slovenia. There are countries in which fourth and subsequent births account for 10-11% of all births (USA, Ireland, Finland, Slovakia). But in general, births of such high orders do not play a big role in shaping the overall level of fertility in developed countries.

Figure 3. Share of third births in the total number of births in 32 industrialized countries in 1960-2003, %

If we combine third and subsequent births into one group, it turns out that their contribution may not be so small, exceeding one fifth or even a quarter of all births (Fig. 4). But in Russia the contribution of this combined group is small, it amounts to 11%, that is, approximately the same as fourth and subsequent births in the United States.

The increase in the number of unregistered marriages and, accordingly, out-of-wedlock births is a trend that is associated with the so-called “second demographic transition.” Partly it reflects the absence of actual marriages, partly it only reflects the refusal to register them. It cannot be argued that this trend, as well as its demographic and social consequences, are well studied and fully understood. But there is no doubt that it cannot be considered a peculiarity of Russia or any individual countries in general; it has a universal character.

Figure 4. Share of third and subsequent births in the total number of births in 28 industrialized countries in 2002, %

On the contrary, such a feature of the Russian birth rate as the excessive use of induced abortion to regulate it sharply distinguishes Russia from most developed countries. Abortion, as a last resort resorted to by women to avoid an unwanted birth, is used in almost all of these countries. The prevalence of this measure, which is widely considered undesirable on moral, religious and medical grounds, varies from country to country. But even taking into account this diversity, Russia looks like a black sheep against the general background.

The low Russian birth rate does not explain anything in this sense. In most industrialized countries, a “contraceptive revolution” occurred, which pushed abortion to the margins of methods of regulating childbirth, and now there is no longer any connection between the birth rate and the prevalence of abortion (Fig. 5).

Figure 5. There is no connection between the birth rate and the number of abortions. Total fertility rate (per 100 women) and number of abortions per 100 births in 24 countries, 2001

Although the number of abortions has recently been declining in our country, Russia has been and remains a country with an unacceptably high rate of abortions. In 2003, there were 120 abortions per 100 births. This is an unprecedentedly low level for Russia (in the 1960s - 1970s the number of abortions here exceeded 200, including in 1964-1970 it was above 250 per 100 births), but, at the same level as in Russia, birth rate, in Italy there are 24 abortions per hundred births, in Germany and Spain - 18.

In general, having for many decades one of the lowest birth rates in the world, Russia thereby demonstrates the widest spread of the practice of intra-family regulation of childbearing. And all this time, the state and its healthcare system tried not to notice this and not meet the new needs of the people. Essentially, they blocked the “contraceptive revolution” through which the vast majority of developed countries went through, dooming millions of Russian women every year to the morally flawed path of artificial abortion that is harmful to mental and physical health. The Russian pension system, its modern state And prospects development // ...

Labor market in Russia modern state And prospects. Unemployment as an element modern

Abstract >> Economic theory

... : modern state And prospects. Unemployment as an element modern market..., distribution, regulation and the use of labor... Russian Federation, in the Law “On Employment Russian Federation", ... marriage rate of the population, fertility, divorces and...

Modern demographic policy of Russia and foreign experience

Abstract >> Sociology

Unlike regulation fertility, quick change... modern, a comprehensive system of public regulation migration to Russian Federation is the development and approval by the Government Russian Federation Concepts regulation ...

Modern sociology state,Problems, prospects development

Abstract >> Sociology

Shortened as in Russian Federation, and in... reasons for the low fertility and... socio-political regulation human relationships... 2000. 5. Dobrenkov I.V. Russian society: modern state And prospects(from the sociology of crisis to...

Under fertility In demographic science, the process of childbearing is understood in the totality of people constituting a generation, or in the totality of generations - the population 1.

To characterize the intensity of the birth rate, various indicators are used, the most common of which is the total fertility rate (TFR).

Total fertility rate is the ratio of the number of live births during a calendar year to the average annual population.

For convenience of comparison of territories with different population sizes, as a rule, the ROC is calculated per 1000 population and measured in ppm (%o):

Where N- the number of children born during this period; T - period (years); R- population size at the middle of the period.

The simplicity of calculating the OCR and its convenience for comparison in different territories make this indicator the main characteristic of fertility.

According to the rating scale proposed in the 1960s. well-known Soviet demographers B. Ts. Urlanis and V. A. Borisov, ROCs with values less than 16% characterize fertility as low, in the range from 16 to 24 - average, from 25 to 29 - above average, from 30 to 39 - high, and more than 40% - very high. Over the past 50 years, due to the general decline in fertility rates both in Russia and in the world, in general, the above assessment scale is already outdated and requires revision.

It should be noted that over the history of mankind, the birth rate of the world population has been steadily declining, although until the middle of the 18th century, under favorable conditions, it was universally approaching the physiological maximum - 50-60% per year. With the development of medicine, an increase in the cultural level and the involvement of women in social production, the birth rate began to gradually decline. At the beginning of the 20th century. The average birth rate in the world was 40-45%, in 1950-1955. - 37, and in the mid-1980s. - already 26% per year. Today, the average birth rate on Earth is 20% and continues to decline.

At the same time, the rate of decline in fertility in different regions and countries of the world varies significantly (Table 6.1). So, if in general in the world over the period from 1950 to 2015 the ROC decreased from 37 to 20%, then in India over the same period this figure changed from 40 to 21, in China - from 36 to 12, in Russia - from 31 to 13, Japan - from 28 to 8, Germany - from 26 to 8%.

Dynamics of OCD in 1970-2015. by region of the world

Region of the world	OKR (annual average), %o
Region of the world


Asia, including
Western Asia
Central and South Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia
Africa, including
North Africa
Tropical Africa
America, including
North America
Latin America
Australia and Oceania

Today, the maximum value of the ROC is observed in the countries of Tropical Africa - in 2015 in 43 countries out of 55 it exceeded 30%, and in countries such as Burkina Faso, Gambia, Mali, Niger, Burundi, Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia, Central African Republic (CAR), Angola, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, ROC exceeds 40%. Among the countries in the world with the highest birth rates, East Timor (36%), Afghanistan (35), Yemen (33) should be noted. In the Western Hemisphere, the maximum value of the ROC no longer exceeds 30% and the highest indicators are typical for countries such as Haiti (28), Bolivia (26), Guatemala (25) (Fig. 6.1).

If the highest ROC indicators are characteristic of the least economically developed countries of the world, then the minimum values, on the contrary, are observed in the post-industrial countries of Europe and Asia. For most European countries, the ROC is currently 10-12%, and in countries such as Germany, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, it does not exceed 8- 9%o. Similar fertility rates are typical for some Asian countries, such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.

However, the OCD does not provide a complete description of the situation with fertility, since its value is strongly influenced by the gender and age structure of the population. If in the population groups for which the OCR is calculated, the proportion of women of childbearing age differs significantly, this will inevitably affect the number of children born and, as a consequence, the coefficient values. In this regard, to study the potential possibility of childbearing - fertility, depending on reproductive

S Rice. 6.1. OCD by country of the world, 2015, % of women’s behavior, other indicators are used, which include:

1) special birth rate;
2) age-specific birth rates;
3) total fertility rate.

Special Fertility Rate(or fertility rate (fertility)) shows the number of children born in a year divided by the number of women of reproductive (childbearing) age. Usually, when calculating the special fertility rate (SFR), the childbearing age of women is considered to be the age interval from 15 to 49 years (inclusive).

Special KR calculated per 1000 women of childbearing age using the following formula:

Where N- number of children born; W- number of women of reproductive age.

OCD is associated with the following special relationship:

Where k- the share of women 15-49 years old in the entire population.

The value of the Special CR depends on the age structure of the female population of reproductive age. Thus, at the age of 15 years, the birth rate is close to zero, between 20 and 30 years it reaches a maximum and disappears by the age of 50. With a normal distribution by sex and age, the parameter k usually varies in different ethnosocial groups ranging from 20 to 30% of the total population. The relationship between Special CR and OCD in each individual society is practically unchanged, which makes it possible to use Special CR to analyze the intensity of the fertility process.

Depending on reproductive behavior, determined by the prevailing social and cultural norms, traditions, and public opinion in society, the age of most intense fertility in women in different countries may vary. Thus, more accurate measures of the birth rate are age-specific birth rates, showing the average number of births per year per 1000 women of a given age group. Over time, age-specific fertility rates may change, which is associated with changes in both the intensity of the birth rate in general and with changes in reproductive attitudes regarding the timing and number of births.

So, if in Russia in the middle of the 20th century. most births of children occurred in the age group of 20-24 years and the birth rate for this five-year group was 158 children per 1000 women, then in 2013 the maximum birth rate was in the age group 25-29 years and amounted to 108 children per 1000 women (Fig. 6.2).

If you add up all age-specific fertility rates, you can get the average number of children born to one woman throughout her life. This indicator of fertility intensity, which does not depend on the age composition of the female part of the population, is called total fertility rate (TFR).

Rice. 6.2.

1 - up to 20 years; 2 - 20-24; 3 - 25-29; 4 - 30-34; 5 - 35-39; 6 - 40-44; 7 - 45+

Like TFR, TFR has declined steadily over the last century worldwide. For different regions and countries of the world, the rate of this decline is not the same. Thus, if from 1975 to 2015 for all humanity the TFR decreased by 40%, then in the countries of East Asia this figure decreased by more than 2 times. At the same time, in Europe the TFR, which at the beginning of the period under review was already about two children per woman, decreased by only 20% over the next four decades. For individual countries, the difference in the dynamics of the TFR over the past 60 years turned out to be even more significant (Table 6.2).

Table 6.2

Dynamics of TFR in 1960-2010 but to individual countries of the world

TFR is of great importance for understanding the direction of the population reproduction process.

Population reproduction in demographic science is understood as the constant renewal of generations of people as a result of the interaction of fertility and mortality, occurring within the framework of historically defined social relations.

Since the ratio of girls and boys at birth is approximately equal for all peoples of the Earth, then for the numerical replacement of a generation of parents, it is necessary that each woman gives birth to at least two children during her life. Taking into account infant and child mortality rates, which vary markedly in different regions of the world, to ensure simple population reproduction, the TFR value must be greater than two. How much more than two the TFR should be depends on the mortality rates existing in a given country (region). Today in European countries, in order to replace the generation (parents) leaving the fertile age, the next generation (children) should be 2-3% more numerous. And in the countries of Tropical Africa, about 20-25% of the population dies before they reach fertile age and can become parents themselves. Therefore, if in Europe, to ensure simple reproduction of the population, the TFR must be at least 2.04-2.06, then to ensure simple reproduction of the population in African countries, with the existing level of child and adolescent mortality, this indicator must be at least 2.4-2.06. 2.5.

Like ROC, today, at the beginning of the 21st century, TFR is of greatest importance in the states of Tropical Africa. In Burkina Faso, Niger, Somalia, Burundi, South Sudan, Angola, Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, each woman gives birth to more than six children on average during her lifetime. Among other countries in the world, the highest TFR rates are observed in East Timor (5.7) and Afghanistan (4.9) (Figure 6.3).

Minimum TFR values are typical for economically developed countries. In Europe, this figure today does not exceed two, amounting to an average of 1.2 children per woman in countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Portugal. Similar indicators are observed in a number of Asian countries, such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore.

Despite the change in the functions and forms of the family institution that has occurred in recent decades in many countries of the world, in most regions of the Earth the birth rate still strongly depends on the proportion of the population that is married. Accordingly, when analyzing fertility, it is important to take into account its marital and non-marital components, as well as the family structure of the population. In this regard, in demographic statistics, great importance is given to such indicators as marriage rates, divorce rates, and household composition.

Crude marriage and divorce rates are calculated as the ratio of the number of inmates and divorces during a calendar year.

g Rice. 6.3. TFR by country, 2015

yes marriages to the average annual population. As of 2015, in terms of marriage and divorce rates, Russia is still quite different from European countries - per 1000 people per year we have 7.9 marriages and 4.2 divorces.

Food for thought

In European countries, marriage and divorce rates have changed dramatically over the past decades. If in the early 1960s. in the countries of Western Europe per 1000 inhabitants there are an average of 7-8 marriages annually, and in the countries of Eastern Europe and the USA - 10-11, then at the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century. for most European countries this figure has dropped to 4-5. Over the same period, the number of divorces per thousand inhabitants increased in European countries1 from 0.5-0.8 to 2.5-3. Thus, today in France the ratio of marriages and divorces per 1000 inhabitants is 3.7: 2; in Spain - 3.5: 2.2; in Sweden - 5.3: 2.5; in the UK it is 4.5:2.1. Today, in most European countries, the proportion of children born out of wedlock ranges from 30 to 50%.

The household- this is a group of people living in one residential building or part thereof, jointly providing themselves with food and everything necessary for life, i.e. wholly or partially pooling and spending their funds.

These people may be related by kinship or marriage, or not related, or both. A household can consist of one person living independently and providing themselves with food and everything necessary for life. People without a fixed place of residence and homeless people are also considered households according to statistical reporting. It is the household, and not the family, that today is the main unit of statistical recording when conducting demographic and sociological studies, including population censuses.

Until now, demographers and sociologists have not fully reached a consensus on the reasons for the existing regional differences in fertility levels. It is believed that high birth rates are inherent in the so-called traditional type of population reproduction, characteristic of patriarchal societies in countries that have not yet entered the industrial phase of economic development. In such societies, where a large part of the population still lives in rural areas, the idea of children as a potential source of labor dominates and large numbers of children are seen as an “investment” in the future of the family. High mortality, especially in infancy and childhood, and low life expectancy in general contribute to the realization at the subconscious level of the basic instinct of man as a biological species to procreate. At the same time, the absence of a social security system leads to the fact that a large number of offspring is considered both as a kind of “social insurance” and the possibility of “pension security” in old age.

The birth rate is influenced by the availability and prevalence of contraception, as well as the social role of a woman, her place in the system of economic relations dominant in society. That is why the decline in fertility, which began in Europe two or three centuries ago and gradually spread to other regions of the world, is primarily associated with socio-economic changes in society. The socialization of women, which primarily implies their involvement in production activities, a decrease in the mortality rate, a general increase in living standards and, as a consequence, life expectancy, has led to a change in the reproductive behavior of the population, considered as a system of actions and relationships that mediate the birth or refusal to have a child.

Currently, considering territorial differences in the birth rate across countries of the world, one can notice that its value is inversely proportional to the level of income, which is the most important component of the standard of living of the population (Fig. 6.4). Thus, only 1 out of 56 countries in the world with a GDP per capita of more than 20 thousand. US dollars per year has a TFR of more than three 1. At the same time, of the 56 countries in the world with a TFR of more than three children per woman, 51 countries have an average annual income of less than $10 thousand per person (2015).

Rice. 6.4.

We can say that today states that have minimum values of GDP per capita have maximum TFR values, and vice versa - countries with the highest standard of living, as a rule, have minimum fertility rates.

But it is not only socio-economic conditions that affect fertility rates. It is known that the canons of the main world religions, and primarily Christianity and Islam, encourage fertility and oppose artificially limiting the number of children in families, therefore, in territories where the influence of religion is stronger, as a rule, birth rates are higher.

See: Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary. M.: Soviet Encyclopedia, 1985.P. 373. With the exception of the Catholic states of Southern Europe - Italy, Spain, Portugal, where divorces were officially prohibited until the end of the 1970s.
See: All-Russian Population Census 2010. T. 6. Number and composition of households.URL: http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/perepis2010/croc/Documents/Vol6/methodologv.pdf.
This is Equatorial Guinea, which has a GDP at purchasing power parity of 23.2 thousand US dollars per person (2013) and a TFR of 4.9 (2014).
Considered taking into account purchasing power parity (PPP).

Peculiarities

demographic situation in the Russian Federation

The demographic situation in Russia is characterized by complex and ambiguous processes in the development of the population. In terms of the number of inhabitants, the Russian Federation ranks seventh in the world after China, India, the USA, Indonesia, Brazil and Pakistan. By the beginning of the 21st century, Russia was in a state of steady process of depopulation, having one of the highest rates of natural population decline.

The main features of the current demographic situation in modern Russia are: significant scale of population decline; low birth rate, widespread one-child family, which does not ensure the reproduction of the population; the continuing aging of the population, changes in the ratio between workers and pensioners, exacerbating the problems of pension provision; huge population losses from excess mortality of men, especially from accidents, poisoning and injuries; family crisis, high divorce rate; dependence of the rate of population decline on the level of compensation for natural loss of external migration; significant volumes of forced migration and illegal migration; reduction in the volume of internal migration, reduction in population mobility.

The persistent absolute decline in population that began in 1992 became alarming by the end of the decade. Due to natural decline, the population of Russia during the period from 1994 to 2002 decreased by 7.7 million people. However, as a result of positive migration growth, the population decline turned out to be much less and the population actually decreased by 4.9 million people, amounting to 143.1 million people at the beginning of 2003.

The population of Russia will continue to decline, on average by about 0.6-0.8 million people annually, and the size of the loss will be determined both by the difference between mortality and birth rates, and by the size of the migration increase. By 2010, the number of Russians will decrease to approximately 138-139 million people. Over these years, according to UN forecasts, Russia will be surpassed in population by Bangladesh and Nigeria. Russia will move from 7th to 9th place in the world in terms of population.

Natural population decline, as the main cause of depopulation in Russia, is stable and long-term. In 1999-2002, the annual excess of deaths over births in the country as a whole was consistently about 1 million people (1.7-1.8 times). At the same time, the compensating role of positive interstate migration growth in replenishing losses in the Russian population has decreased significantly in recent years. If in 1994 the natural population decline was replaced by 93% by registered external migration, then in 1998 by 41%, and in 2001-2002 by only 8%.

Depopulation has affected, to varying degrees, almost all territories of the Russian Federation and almost all ethnic groups. The problem of low birth rates has become particularly acute. A decline in the birth rate is characteristic of many developed countries, but the Russian Federation is characterized by a uniquely low birth rate. Since the late 60s, the birth rate in Russia has dropped below the level necessary for simple population reproduction. Although extensive factors led to an increase in the absolute number of births in 2000-2002, they practically did not change the birth rate.

In 2002, there were 1397.0 thousand children, which is 182.3 thousand more than in 1999. The growth, which is encouraging at first glance, is mainly due to a temporary increase in the number of women in the most childbearing ages of 20-29 years.

At the same time, the total fertility rate does not exceed one hundred thirty-one births per 100 women of reproductive age (15-49 years). This is significantly lower than the level necessary for the numerical replacement of generations of parents with their children, or simple population reproduction.

The nature of the birth rate in the Russian Federation is determined by the widespread prevalence of small families (1-2 children), as well as the late birth of the first child. The decline in the birth rate in Russia occurred over an unprecedentedly short period of time by demographic standards.

The need for strict intra-family regulation of childbirth, the late birth of the first child by young spouses and the increase in the average age of the mother at the birth of children (2001-26.0 years, 1994 -24.7) have become an adequate response of the population to the impact of the economic situation. Against this background, there has been a noticeable rejuvenation in the age at which sexual activity begins, the spread of premarital cohabitation without the intention of having children and marriages that are not legally registered, as well as a noticeable increase in out-of-wedlock births. In 1995-2002 alone, the share of children born outside of a registered marriage among all births increased 1.5 times and reached almost 30%.

The severity of depopulation in the Russian Federation is formed not only due to the low birth rate, but also, first of all, due to the high mortality rate of the population, which is the most painful problem of modern demographic development in Russia.

Since 1999, the overall mortality rate of the country's population began to rise again and amounted to 16.3 deaths per 1000 population in 2002 against 15.7 in 1994 and is currently the highest in Europe. Over the past 4 years, this figure has increased by 20%. The influence on mortality of such factors as the spread of alcoholism, smoking, and road accidents has increased. The number of deaths not only from chronic, but also from socially determined diseases is increasing.

The mortality situation in the country is determined by the dynamics of deaths among people of working age. In 2002, the share of working-age deaths in the total number of deaths was 29%.

The problem of excessive mortality in working age is, first of all, the problem of mortality among men, the level of which is 4 times higher than that of women. While in developed countries the mortality rate of men of working age is 2-4 times lower than in Russia.

The emerging trends in the field of natural and migration movements of the population predetermine a further decline in the country's population. According to the forecast of the State Statistics Committee of Russia, by 2016 the country's population will decrease by 9.7 million people (or 6.7%) compared to the beginning of 2002 and will amount to 134.3 million people. Positive migration growth does not compensate for natural population decline.

The current parameters of the population itself (age structure) and its reproduction are such that the population of Russia in the 21st century will continue to decline and in 5-6 decades, in the worst case scenario, it may be approximately halved.

Main strategic objectives of demographic policy:

Improving the health of the population, increasing life expectancy, reducing preventable mortality of the population, especially men of working age;

Stimulating the birth rate and strengthening the family by increasing the material well-being, quality and standard of living of families, social protection of families and material incentives for the birth of children;

Activation outreach

Introduction________________________________________________________________3

1. Fertility as a determining factor of modern demographic

situations __________________________________________________________ 4

2. Increasing the birth rate: how to enhance the effect of government measures________________________________________________________________13

Conclusion ________________________________________________________________18

List l literature ________________________________________________20 Introduction

The relevance of research.Low birth rate in our country is far from a new problem. And its reasons are only to a small extent related to the difficulties of the socio-economic development of our country in recent years. The birth rate in Russia has been declining for more than 100 years. In the first half of the 20th century. In parallel with the birth rate, the mortality rate also decreased, so the reduction in the number of children in Russian families remained unnoticeable for a long time. But in the second half of the century, the decline in mortality slowed and the problem of small children began to manifest itself more and more clearly.

So the goal our research - the birth rate in Russia.

Based on the goal, determined tasks :

Describe fertility as a determining factorcurrent demographic situation;

Identify effective government measures to increase the birth rate.

The work uses various scientific and educational literature on fertility issues. Various publications in periodicals and on Internet sites are also of interest.

1. Fertility as a determining factor in the modern demographic situation

The main determining factor in the modern demographic situation is the birth rate, which has fallen in our country to the lowest level in the world. The total fertility rate (the number of children born on average to one woman of a conventional generation in her entire life) was only 1,230 children in 1997, while only for simple reproduction, i.e., one in which the population does not grow, but also does not decrease, it requires the birth of an average of 2.1 children per woman over a lifetime, without difference in marital status, and 2.6 children per marriage.

Picture 1. Net population replacement rate in 40 industrialized countries in 2002

In 2003, second births in Russia accounted for 31% of all births. Their share was lower than in Russia only in Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Romania and France.

At the opposite pole were countries such as Germany, Greece, the Czech Republic and Switzerland - over 37%.

Figure 2. Share of second births in the total number of births in 32 industrialized countries in 1960-2003, %

Figure 3. Share of third births in the total number of births in 32 industrialized countries in 1960-2003, %

Figure 4. Share of third and subsequent births in the total number of births in 28 industrialized countries in 2002, %

Figure 5. There is no connection between the birth rate and the number of abortions. Total fertility rate (per 100 women) and number of abortions per 100 births in 24 countries, 2001

In general, having for many decades one of the lowest birth rates in the world, Russia thereby demonstrates the widest spread of the practice of intra-family regulation of childbearing. And all this time, the state and its healthcare system tried not to notice this and not meet the new needs of the people. Essentially, they blocked the “contraceptive revolution” through which the vast majority of developed countries went through, dooming millions of Russian women every year to the morally flawed path of induced abortion that is harmful to mental and physical health.

A slow or moderate decline in fertility can have an impact on its own if it increases the differentiation of fertility and natural increase rates among groups with different future growth opportunities and thereby stimulates migration from regions with high fertility and low economic growth to economically more prosperous regions. Increasing demographic differences between city and village, physical and mental, low- and high-skilled labor can lead to increased migration, an increase in the share of migrants in the labor force and, accordingly, an increase in the influence of migration discussed above.

A rapid decline in fertility, accompanied by smaller differences in different territories and in different social groups, may mean less migration mobility and less opportunities for increasing the income of migrants and their participation in new, progressive types of production.

So far, we have deliberately emphasized the positive implications for economic growth of a larger population and higher rates of population growth, since historically economic growth and modernization were temporarily accompanied by a higher rate of population growth than ever before. However, the net effect of a large or rapidly growing population also depends on assumptions about growth-limiting demographic pressures.

Firstly, the positive influence of demographic factors is possible only under certain social conditions (the presence of democratic freedoms, social institutions, the development of education), in the absence of which such positive influences may not be realized. Secondly, it is necessary to take into account the negative impact of population growth on natural resources (increasing demographic pressure) and the limited investment per capita. The outflow of a highly educated population from any region can also be detrimental to its socio-economic development and high unproductive costs for training personnel (this is clearly manifested in the “brain drain” from our country abroad).

Significant economic growth can be combined with low population growth rates (low mortality and birth rates). One visible proof is the example of modern economically developed countries, where zero or negative population growth is accompanied by stable rates of economic growth. The benefits of economies of scale of production are offset by reliance on foreign markets and a greater international division of labor. The shortage of workers can be compensated by external migration or by stimulating technical innovations.

Thus, population trends influence economic growth on at least four levels:

1) directly on the size and structure of the population as a producer and consumer;

2) on other economically significant aspects of people’s behavior (work behavior, consumption patterns);

3) on technology and social relations, including a number of institutions affecting the population;

4) on people’s attitudes and views on the progress of the economy and human society.

2. Increasing the birth rate: how to enhance the effect of government measures

Two hundred documents and regulations defining new measures of state social policy to support families with children, aimed, as intended by the legislator, at stimulating the birth rate.

Thus, new measures to support families with children in 2007 required budget funding in the amount of more than 160 billion rubles. The total costs for this program amounted to about 200 billion rubles, which is comparable to the total costs for the implementation of the other four national projects in the fields of health, education, agriculture and housing, launched in 2006 (206.3 billion rubles). The ratio of spending on family and maternity benefits to GDP, according to our calculations, was about 0.7%. By comparison, in 2005 the total cost of cash social benefits was 1.5% of GDP. Consequently, the new measures will lead to a significant increase in all social payments in 2007.

From this point of view, the measures taken are only the first step towards serious modernization processes designed to ensure the compatibility of women’s employment and the birth of children. This is also true for measures aimed at developing family forms of raising orphans.

So far, the simulated effects of new measures on the well-being of families with children cannot compete with the scenario of child abandonment and do not create a significant breakthrough in solving the problem of combining employment and raising children - especially in the context of sociocultural traditions and living standards of rapidly developing large cities. On the other hand, the increase in the weight of the introduced benefits in the income of targeted groups of recipients is such that they have become a significant resource for families. As a result of the measures taken, the childcare benefit for children under the age of one and a half years doubled the corresponding share in the average earnings of insured women during the Soviet period. And the fact that uninsured citizens also became recipients of benefits will significantly increase the standard of living of families with children of this age group - parents of such children traditionally occupy a weak position in the labor market. Finally, for the first time in the years of post-Soviet reforms in the social sphere, we are talking about the policy of development and investment, and not compensation for losses caused by the economic crisis and large-scale socio-political reforms.

The expected effects from the use of maternity capital are still more elusive, but transparent legislative, financial and practical rules for the process of its formation have been defined.

The goal of family-oriented policy is a set of measures, on the one hand, promoting the development of self-sufficiency strategies, and on the other, increasing the availability of state social support programs. The following configuration of the components of such a policy in modern Russian conditions appears.

Expanding opportunities for self-sufficiency.This task largely corresponds with the general tasks of economic development, in particular with the tasks of creating new high-quality jobs that require high productivity and remuneration. The Russian labor market is still quite flexible and non-standard, however, due to the widespread prevalence of low-paid informal employment. Attempts to legalize the informal part of labor relations and increase wages through administrative methods may lead to a reduction in the employment segment for vulnerable categories, which include women who combine responsibilities for raising children and employment. This can be counteracted by:

firstly, combining the efforts of employment and social protection services in maintaining the standard of living of the unemployed from vulnerable groups. For persons with limited labor potential, the most effective support scheme seems to be one that stimulates economic activity: a condition for the provision of a certain cash benefit through the social protection system may be some acceptable form of employment in low-paid jobs;

secondly, preferences for the unemployed and young people from large and single-parent families in active employment programs. Most regions have special youth employment programs, including schoolchildren, students and summer students, but children from vulnerable families are not a priority group in such programs. Moreover, our studies of the interaction between social protection and the employment service, conducted in six regions of Russia, showed that the employment service, in terms of developing active programs, prefers not to work with vulnerable categories. At the same time, it is these categories that may turn out to be the focus group for professional training in blue-collar professions, the shortage of which has become evident in the labor market: they apply for jobs that do not require a very high education;

thirdly, the development in rural areas of self-sufficiency opportunities for families with children, primarily through expanding the availability of credit and leasing schemes for personal subsidiary plots, since in the structure of the budget of such families, monetary and non-monetary receipts from subsidiary plots constitute a significant part. The implementation of a self-sufficiency strategy in rural areas requires educational and information support: rural families are still limited in access to information sources that allow them to master the rules of lending and investment development in a small business environment;

fourthly, the development of non-profit organizations that promote: employment of able-bodied people from these families and their civil association; development and dissemination of best practices for solving specific problems of large and single-parent families.

Development of social protection programs.Families with children, having the highest risk of poverty, do not constitute a priority group in the social protection system. After, in accordance with Federal Law No. 122-FZ, the authority to assign and pay monthly benefits to poor families with children was transferred to the regional level, funding for this program was reduced by 9% without taking into account the inflationary decrease in the real content of benefits. It is important to emphasize that now the amount of the benefit is significantly differentiated regionally, but in most regions it does not exceed 5% of the child’s subsistence level.

Consequently, one of the next steps of active family policy should be the reform of the system of monthly child benefits for families with incomes below the subsistence level. The result of this reform should be a reduction in the number of recipients due to those who receive this benefit, being non-poor, and an increase in its size for those who maintain their poverty status.

To optimize the system, all forms of support at the regional level should be consolidated into one law and provide for a certain flexibility in the allocation of resources - both in time and in the forms of assistance used. In other words, a social package should be developed for families with children, similar to the social package formed as part of the monetization of benefits. The family should retain the right to receive the monetary equivalent of this social package, but not more than 50% of its value and provided that there are no facts confirming marginal forms of social behavior of the parents. Social package resources can also be used by educational, social protection and health care institutions to ensure that funds reach children in marginalized families.

The development experience of European countries in the second half of the twentieth century suggests that in the context of the development of a market economy, support for poor families will eventually become a priority function of social protection. The operation of such programs is ensured by income control. But in Russia, a significant part of cash receipts is hidden from statistical observation. Overcoming this serious obstacle to the implementation of these programs is possible in several directions.

Firstly, we are talking about strengthening income control procedures, although the possibilities of such procedures are very limited: for families with children, about 30% of income cannot be controlled.

Secondly, access to the resources of social programs can be limited through a social contract providing for the fulfillment of certain obligations, and families that hide income should be deprived of such access.

Attitude to family.In Russia, family and society responded to the costs of economic and political transformation by creating an unfriendly atmosphere towards children: parents and the social protection system cannot provide a minimum acceptable level of income; education and healthcare provide quality services mainly on a paid basis; employers treat women with children as a low-competitive workforce; friends, relatives, work colleagues, and social service workers advise not to rush into having children. This is the atmosphere in which the reproductive attitudes of Russian youth have been formed over the past 15 years. Now it is necessary to develop a program of action aimed at overcoming these attitudes.

Conclusion

The unfavorable features of the Russian birth rate include a very high proportion of first births with a low proportion of second and all subsequent births. An absolutely negative feature of the Russian birth rate remains the extremely high role of abortion as a way of regulating childbirth. It is more difficult to assess the Russian features of the dynamics of the average age of a mother at the birth of a child, but judging by the fact that higher birth rates are now observed in countries with relatively later motherhood, these features deserve critical attention.

In general, it seems that the procreative behavior of Russians, for various reasons, does not respond flexibly enough to the changing conditions of the existence of families, which, although it does not change the general trends, gives rise to lag effects with subsequent sharp changes (“catch-up”), destabilizing the entire process of procreation.

Can we expect to increase the birth rate in Russia, including through pronatalist demographic policy measures? This question breaks down into two sub-questions:

Can we even count on an increase in the birth rate, for example, to the level of the best modern European indicators? This very formulation of the question presupposes a positive answer, because there are examples of countries with such a level of fertility, and there is no reason to claim that Russia can achieve the same. This, of course, does not mean that it will be easy to increase the Russian birth rate to the current level of France or Great Britain, but in principle it is possible.

Is it possible to expect an increase in the birth rate at least to the level of replacement of generations, simple reproduction of the population? It is much more difficult to give a positive answer to this question, since modern industrial countries, including those who have been pursuing fairly generously funded pronatalist family policies for decades, have failed to achieve such a result. It is unlikely to be achievable in the near future in Russia either.

Nevertheless, pursuing a similar policy in Russia is apparently necessary. There is a demand in society for such a policy, and the state must respond to this request. But it should be borne in mind that we are talking about influencing very complex types of social behavior, and accordingly, measures of influence must be well thought out and carefully verified. One of the indispensable conditions for designing family policy is knowledge of all aspects of the latest fertility trends and understanding of the objective factors that determine the procreative choice of modern women and men. Attempts to change these trends through arbitrary measures are doomed to failure.

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